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21 September 2010
Earlier in the year I observed that CC was getting significantly more groundballs than earlier in his career. At this time we can see that he has maintained this new approach throughout the year (via fangraphs):
| Season | Team | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Yankees | 1.15 | 19.8 % | 42.9 % | 37.3 % |
| 2010 | Yankees | 1.47 | 14.8 % | 50.7 % | 34.5 % |
Now I would like to explore why he is getting more groundballs.
Pitch Selection
The most obvious explanation is that CC is simply leaning more heavily on his pitches that induce groundballs. Indeed, this appears to be the case, as he is throwing his sinker/two seamer more this year than last (via Trip Somers' pitch f/x tool):
2009:
| Type | Selection |
|---|---|
| FF | 60.1% |
| SL | 17.9% |
| CH | 16.7% |
| SI | 3.2% |
| CU | 2.1% |
2010:
| Type | Selection |
|---|---|
| FF | 47.6% |
| CH | 17.0% |
| SI | 14.4% |
| SL | 13.7% |
| CU | 7.3% |
FF= four seam, CH=changeup, SI=sinker/two seam, SL=slider, CU=curveball
I elected to use this pitch f/x tool because I'm fairly sure this pitch f/x classification system has not changed from last year to this year, unlike the Gameday classifications (Gameday has changed it's classifications of fastballs over the years, particularly altering fastball classifications into more specific categories like sinkers and cutters).
As you can see, he's throwing basically the same amount of breaking balls and changeups, and has simply replaced some of his fourseamers with sinkers/two-seamers.
Pitch Results
Yet this change in pitch selection does not completely explain his increase in GB% rate. The individual groundball rates of his pitches have changed:
2009 GB%:
FF: 41%
SL: 40%
CH: 52%
SI: 64%
2010 GB%:
FF: 47%
SL: 48%
CH: 55%
SI: 61%
*In case you're wondering, the curveballs dissapeared because I just grouped them with the sliders.
It appears that the groundball rates of his changeup and sinker have not changed that much, while his FF and SL are both getting more groundballs this year.
more after the break
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15 September 2010
Here's your primer:
I wanted to take a look at BB% and K% for each level because it can give us a rough outline of a player’s strike zone judgment. Strike Zone judgment encompasses a player’s ability to avoid strike outs as well as draw walks.
Thanks to Jeff Sachman who did some work on translating amateur K%, we know that a strikeout rate of 25% in the majors roughly equals a 21% rate in single A ball. Of course we know that players are going to cut down on these rates as they get older and gain more experience- I don’t think anyone would blindly write off a top talent because he struck out a lot as an 18 year old in the Gulf Coast League. Also we may be running into sample size issues in the minors where most guys don't get enough PAs for BB and K rates to totally stabilize.
When looking at these graphs, make sure you take into account the age and experience of each prospect before rushing to judgment on them. The average K% in the Sal League among qualified batters was 23%, while the average BB% was 7.7%. Also, keep in mind the SAL favored pitchers this year by a good amount as you can probably tell from the average BB rate.
Looking at this graph, I’m impressed with JR Murphy. He was essentially making his pro debut and although he didn’t have a great season (.255/.327/.376) the scouting reports about his approach at the plate seem accurate....Kyle Higashioka was another surprise for me. Not counting his 50 PAs in 2008, Higashioka has had above average strike zone judgment the past 2 seasons but awful results- .315 and .297 wOBA respectively…. Slade Heathcott didn’t really wow anyone this season (.331 wOBA), but I was impressed with the 19 year olds ability to get on base- contact issues for a first year guy aren’t out of the ordinary... Luke Murton had a pretty good season (.376 wOBA) and managed to cut down on the K% from last year…Zoilo Almonte also carried over his good work from 2009 before being promoted to Tampa where he ran into a wall. Interestingly, he had almost the exact same K and BB rates across both levels- 8% BB rate and 28% K rate.
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14 September 2010
As I'm sure many of you know, Nick Swisher has significantly altered his approach at the plate this season. Earlier in his career, he was primarily a guy who would walk and strike out a lot while hitting for some pop. Another marker of his skillset was the fact that he always performed pretty poorly on balls in play; his career average BABIP (including this year's boost) is only .284 which is very below average. In this past offseason, Swisher and Kevin Long teamed up to make Nick a .300 hitter. To do this Swisher would have to reduce his strikeouts, increase his BABIP (by a lot), all while maintaining his homerun power.
At this point in the season it seems pretty conclusive that Swisher, while not a .300 hitter and will likely never be, has been pretty successful in achieving his offseason goals. The changes in his batting approach can be seen in his plate discipline numbers (via fangraphs):
| Season | Team | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Athletics | 10.9 % | 73.0 % | 43.0 % | 20.0 % | 87.0 % | 78.9 % | 51.8 % | 47.9 % | 8.7 % |
| 2004 | Average | 16.6 % | 69.6 % | 45.8 % | 53.7 % | 85.1 % | 80.0 % | 55.1 % | 58.4 % | 9.0 % |
| 2005 | Athletics | 17.6 % | 61.7 % | 40.2 % | 44.7 % | 87.2 % | 78.1 % | 51.1 % | 55.4 % | 8.6 % |
| 2005 | Average | 20.3 % | 68.0 % | 46.0 % | 51.8 % | 88.3 % | 80.8 % | 53.8 % | 59.1 % | 8.7 % |
| 2006 | Athletics | 17.3 % | 66.1 % | 41.0 % | 40.7 % | 79.4 % | 71.0 % | 48.5 % | 54.3 % | 11.5 % |
| 2006 | Average | 23.5 % | 66.6 % | 46.1 % | 57.4 % | 88.5 % | 81.0 % | 52.6 % | 58.8 % | 8.5 % |
| 2007 | Athletics | 16.6 % | 61.7 % | 37.8 % | 49.0 % | 85.8 % | 77.2 % | 47.0 % | 52.8 % | 8.3 % |
| 2007 | Average | 25.0 % | 66.6 % | 45.9 % | 60.8 % | 88.2 % | 80.8 % | 50.3 % | 58.7 % | 8.6 % |
| 2008 | White Sox | 18.9 % | 59.5 % | 38.5 % | 57.7 % | 86.2 % | 79.0 % | 48.3 % | 51.7 % | 7.9 % |
| 2008 | Average | 25.4 % | 65.4 % | 45.9 % | 61.7 % | 87.9 % | 80.8 % | 51.1 % | 58.6 % | 8.6 % |
| 2009 | Yankees | 17.3 % | 57.0 % | 35.7 % | 55.5 % | 85.7 % | 77.8 % | 46.4 % | 53.1 % | 7.7 % |
| 2009 | Average | 25.1 % | 66.0 % | 45.3 % | 61.7 % | 87.8 % | 80.5 % | 49.3 % | 58.2 % | 8.6 % |
| 2010 | Yankees | 26.1 % | 68.9 % | 44.8 % | 61.9 % | 88.6 % | 79.8 % | 43.7 % | 56.5 % | 8.9 % |
As you can see by the highlighted values, this year Swisher is swinging almost 10% more than he did in 2009. The "average" rows are the league average for that year.
Now that we know he is swinging more, it is interesting to see where he swinging more:
2009: 2010:
*Big thanks to Dave Allen for helping me with the code to create these graphs in R. He's pretty much the pitch f/x guru of the entire interwebs, and you can find his great work at baseballanalysts and fangraphs.
The blue (2010) and black (2009) represent the 50% swing rate contour lines for Swisher. Inside the contour lines means that Swisher swings at least 50%, and outside of the contour lines means that he swings less than 50%. The x axis is the horizontal location of the pitches, while the y axis is the vertical location. The graphs are from the catcher's perspective.
In 2010, in terms of vertical location, he seems to be swinging much more at pitches low in the strikezone (the red box). He also seems to have expanded his zone a little more horizontally, swinging more at pitches that are up and in (from a lefty's perspective). Unfortunately, Swisher batted as a lefty a little more in 2009 than 2010, but the difference is small so I don't think it skews the data all that much.
Interestingly, even with the radical shift in batting approach, Swisher's overall production has been very similar to last year; he has a 140 wRC+ this year and had a 132 wRC+ last year. I'd wager that the true offensive talent of his 2010 skillset is roughly equal to the true offensive talent of his skillset in 2009. I suppose that makes me kind of neutral to this change in approach. Trading a walks-based approach for a BABIP-based approach is somewhat risky, as there is much more variation year to year in BABIP than plate discipline. In reality, this probably gives Swisher's current batting style both the potential for a higher ceiling and a lower floor. There's also the possibility that it helps him age better, as players who depend on "old player" skills (walks, power) early in their careers sometimes have limited longevity.
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13 September 2010
Here are the short season leaders, using a minimum of 100 plate appearances.
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Home Runs
Stolen Bases
Total Bases
Batting Average
OBP
Slugging
wOBA
ISO
BB Percentage
K Percentage
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12 September 2010
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 19 | Yankees | 40 | 159 | 145 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 45 | .207 | .266 | .345 |
| 2007 | 20 | Yankees | 49 | 169 | 153 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 55 | .235 | .293 | .386 |
| 2008 | 21 | Staten Island | 46 | 128 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 38 | .221 | .252 | .467 |
| 2009 | 22 | Charleston | 133 | 564 | 497 | 112 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 51 | 168 | .225 | .309 | .423 |
| 2010 | 23 | Tampa | 121 | 507 | 446 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 9 | 44 | 129 | .260 | .338 | .475 |
| 5 Seasons | 389 | 1527 | 1363 | 321 | 67 | 22 | 52 | 61 | 22 | 119 | 435 | .236 | .307 | .431 | ||
| Rk (2 seasons) | 89 | 328 | 298 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 100 | .221 | .280 | .366 | ||
| A (1 season) | 133 | 564 | 497 | 112 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 51 | 168 | .225 | .309 | .423 | ||
| A- (1 season) | 46 | 128 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 38 | .221 | .252 | .467 | ||
| A+ (1 season) | 121 | 507 | 446 | 116 | 21 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 9 | 44 | 129 | .260 | .338 | .475 | ||
The extremely athletic Melky Mesa was recently named the Florida State League's player of the year after showing significant improvements over his first four seasons, which were all disappointing. As you can see from the strikeout numbers that Mesa has put up throughout his career, it's clear that making contact is his biggest problem.
Before the 2010 season, Mike Newman called off-speed pitches Mesa's "major weakness" and that he would never be considered a legitimate prospect unless he lowered his strikeout rate. Well, in 2010, Mesa did just that. He cut his strikeout rate down from 29.9 percent in '09 to 25.3 percent this season, a new career low.
Obviously, striking out 129 times in 121 games is nothing exciting, but it shows a legitimate improvement for Mesa and the rest of his numbers benefitted from the change. He set career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. He also showed his power with 49 extra base hits and showed off his speed with 31 stolen bases.
Mesa's tools and athleticism have always made him an outstanding defensive outfielder, as he has a ton of speed and also has a terrific arm. In 2009, he had a ridiculous 19 outfield assists and had a TotalZone rating of +13 runs between playing time in center and right field. TotalZone for the 2010 season is not available yet, but Mesa only notched 6 assists this season. I would guess that this has more to do with runners not testing his arm anymore than Mesa suddenly losing his powerful throwing arm.
Mesa definitely improved his approach at the plate this season and performed way better against breaking balls, but I'm not sold on him being a solid prospect just yet. At 23, he is quite old for A-ball, and you would expect a player with four seasons of experience under his belt to perform well in the low levels.
His season took a sad turn and early end when he was hit by a pitch on his wrist on August 29th. He has yet to return to a game and is likely out for the season, but I haven't heard how serious the injury is.
Overall, my outlook for Mesa hasn't changed much. He remains a talented athlete who hasn't put it together yet and probably never will. However, you never want to write a guy off who has the amount of raw tools and athleticism that Mesa does. He'll always be a guy to keep an eye on, but I won't be getting too excited about him until I see a more impressive offensive performance.
Photo Credit: Flickr User BeGreen90
