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05 May 2010
Photo Credit: VerneBecker
Marc Carig(among others) is reporting that Andy Pettitte left today's game after the fifth inning with minor stiffness in his left forearm. Apparently, he felt the same stiffness in his start versus the White Sox. He will be heading for an MRI, which I hope comes back negative.
Back in March, Sean discussed the state of the Yankees' rotational depth. The Yankees have been lucky so far, and have not really faced any injury problems in the majors. Who the Yankees will turn to will depend on whether Pettitte is going to miss a start, or head to the disabled list for an extended period of time.
If Pettitte just needs to miss one start, I'm sure the Yankees won't make a roster move or anything. They'll just go with a combination of Sergio Mitre and Alfredo Aceves. If it turns out that Pettitte is going to miss more than just one or two starts, that would present a problem for the Yankees. There are a few options, but I'm not sure how promising any of them are.
First, there are the options currently sitting in the major league bullpen. Along with Mitre and Aceves, the Yankees have Joba Chamberlain as a possibility. Unless Pettitte was going to miss more than a few months, I couldn't see the Yankees really considering Chamberlain. They have already taken lots of heat for "messing him up," and I think they'd be hesitant to transition him back to the rotation.
I'm probably biased because of my frequent clamoring for the Yankees to stick with Joba as a starter, but I think he is probably the best option to start. With Javier Vazquez barely keeping the Yankees in games, the Yankees can't afford to stick another low-ceiling option like Aceves or Mitre into the rotation.
Taking Joba out of the bullpen would certainly weaken the 'pen a bit, but Mark Melancon could probably step in and the Yankees wouldn't suffer too much. I think this would be ideal from a prospect perspective, but also from a team perspective.
Now, the Yankees could also decide to call someone up. The only realistic 40-man options are Ivan Nova and Romulo Sanchez. Before the season began, I ranked Nova slightly ahead of Sanchez. Well, lets just say that hasn't gone too well. Sanchez has gotten off to an awful start in which he has struggled with his control and his strikeout rate has been down. He also has not been generating as many ground balls. All signs are negative on the Romulo front so far.
Nova has been the opposite. His strikeout rate is way up, his walk rate is slightly down, and his ground ball rate is way up. Nova has certainly distanced himself from Sanchez in 2010. Because of this, if the Yankees need a starter from Triple-A, it would make sense for the Yanks to go with Nova. Either way, I'm sure we'll see him at some point this season.
As you can see, the Yankees do have a few options. The quality of these options is debatable, though. I've never been a big Nova fan, and one strong month isn't going to change that(he also had a strong april last year). Beyond Joba, the other options probably won't be too much better than replacement level. Hopefully, nothing is wrong with Pettitte and I'm just wasting my time thinking about this. If not, though, the Yankees' hand is not going to be a strong one.
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05 May 2010
Strikeout Rate
Walk Rate
ISO(SLG-BA)
Home Run Per Fly Ball
wOBA
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04 May 2010
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
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Former major league reliever Royce Ring has gotten off to a nice start in Triple-A. In his major league career, he's been decent vs. lefties(3.50 FIP), and that his continued for Scranton this season. He has only given up one hit against lefties in 23 PA, but that is mostly thanks to a .083 BABIP. Overall, he's posted a 2.80 FIP in 9.1 innings. If the Yankees need another lefty reliever at some point this season, Ring has a chance to be the guy they go with.
Photo Credit: ChrisJNelson
Trenton
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We probably dropped the ball a little bit when we left this guy off of our top 30 prospects, but he has gotten off to another great start. David Phelps(pictured) has struck out nearly a batter per inning and has walked only five batters in four starts. This has led to a 1.89 FIP.Photo Credit: MikeCNY
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Josh Schmidt has always put up great numbers, and he has been even better so far in his third AA season. He has posted the highest strikeout and groundball rates of his career and his tRA stands at an almost unbelievable 1.14. He has walked six batters in 14 innings though, and for a guy with marginal stuff, that is too many.
Tampa
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Switch-pitcher Pat Venditte has continued to add to his already impressive resume. He has given up five runs on the season in 15.1 innings, but has also struck out an impressive 23 batters while walking only three. His strikeout percentage is actually the highest of his career and he has also been generating more swinging strikes. The Yankees really need to get Venditte to Trenton, where he could actually face more of a challenge.
Photo Credit: NY Daily News
Charleston
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Graham Stoneburner(pictured) has done about as well as anyone could have expected. He did have some hype and was close to making our top 30 prospects, but given his rawness, the way he has started off his career has been impressive. He has pitched 31 innings, struck out 32, walked seven, and nine earned runs for a 2.61 ERA that fits right in with his 2.75 FIP. Stoneburner is definitely an exciting pitcher in the organization, and would certainly make my top 30 prospects today.Photo Credit: CSTV
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The Yankees drafted Shaeffer Hall in the 25th round of the 2009 draft and he has come out of the gate on fire. The 22-year-old left handed starter has shown good control and did not walk a single batter through his first three starts. He hasn't been as good in his two most recent starts, but he still owns a 2.63 FIP.
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04 May 2010
In addition to our look at the top 30, we wanted to touch on some other guys who have gotten off to good starts early on.
Deangelo Mack- A- .275/.396/.500 5 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 3 HRs, 2 SBs, .391 wOBA
Mack has been impressive in the early going. We’ve touched on Mack before and how he wanted to improve his speed heading into this year. While the stolen bases are nothing to write home about (has 3 CS as well) every other facet of his game has improved. He’s now walking in 15% of his PAs but the strikeouts have risen too- up to 23%. I was ready to chalk this up to BABIP but his .352 mark is actually lower than he posted all of last year. As a college kid he’s a bit old for the SAL, 23, but we can’t really hold that against him- it’s been an impressive start in full season ball for the outfielder.
Eduardo Nunez-AAA- .360/.414/.461 6 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 1 HR, 8 SBs, .387 wOBA
Greg touched on this before- this is a Nunez we’re unfamiliar with. Forget all the other numbers, the stand out ones are these- 8 walks, 6 strikeouts. He’s never been a prolific strikeout guy nor has he ever drawn many walks but these numbers early on are trending in positive directions. An 8% walk rate and just 6% strikeout rate certainly stand out. The BABIP is high (.378) as is his LD% (21%) but even a luck and park neutralized line courtesy of Minor League Splits shows an encouraging .314/.379/.407. As Greg notes, the Yankees have been rotating him around the infield a little bit, but it hasn't helped much as he already has six errors on the season and he has especially struggled in his brief time at second and third base. The test will be if Nunez can keep up the impressive plate discipline and maintain this production- here’s to hoping we were wrong.
Colin Curtis-AAA- .339/.435/.441 6 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 HRs, 0 SBs, .385 wOBA
Cutis has had a quite beginning to the season but a good one. The main reason for his success is an early uptick in his BB rate that’s propelled him to a very nice .435 OBP. Right now he’s riding in the midst of a hot BABIP, an unsustainable .392 clip. However this defense first corner outfielder has a chance turn some heads as a 4th/5th outfield type next year and his nice April shouldn’t be ignored.
Other notable bats-
Juan Miranda just keeps on keepin’ on (.355 wOBA, .204 ISO)…who knows what will happen with him although I imagine some team would give him a look next year…..Zolio Almonte (.290/.362/.441, .346 wOBA) has kept up his improved walk rate from last year (10%) but has struck out in 25% of his PAs….Luke Murton (.268/.345/.474, .355 wOBA) is 2 days removed from the snapping of his 14 game hitting streak and 2010 finds the Charleston 1st baseman walking slightly less, striking out less but still posting a solid ISO- .206)….Brandon Laird has really turned it on as of late (.284/.343/.526, .362 wOBA) posting a .242 ISO with 5 HRs already….
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03 May 2010
April seemed to take forever to get here and only a moment to disappear. Tis the folly of being a baseball fan I guess. It's a small sample remember, but there are some good signs and some not so good ones out there early on. Anyway, here's a quick look at how our top 30 prospects faired in April.
1. Jesus Montero- AAA- .247/.313/.384, 2 HR, .320 wOBA
Montero hasn’t gotten off to the hottest of starts but that’s alright as he’s just 20 years old and it’s only 80 PAs. Some contributing factors need mentioning, including that his BABIP is .278 which is approximately 50 points below his career average. He’s walked a bit more so far, 8.8% of his PAs which is another good sign. It’ll come around for the big guy soon enough.
2. Austin Romine-AA- .354/.425/.492, 0 HR, .413 wOBA
Romine has obviously been very impressive and he’s really hit of late. The power is starting to come around, as he hit his first HR this past weekend as well. He is also walking more early on, but has an unsustainable .435 BABIP to this point.
3. Slade Heathcott- has not played
4. Zach McAllister-AAA- 28 IP, 21 Ks, 8 BBs, 3.95 FIP
McAllister has struggled to adjust early on and these are certainly the worst numbers we’ve seen from him in his career. A sinkerball pitcher with just a 35% GB rate isn’t a good thing, and has already allowed 3 HRs, one less than in all of 2009.
5. Manny Banuelos- yet to pitch with an appendectomy
6. Jeremy Bleich-AA- 22 IP, 14 Ks, 12 BBs, 4.26 FIP
It hasn’t looked real pretty for Bleich early on in his repeat of AA, that’s for sure. More unsettling is his already low .200 BABIP. The command issues are, well, issues and it’d be nice to see him turn it around sometime soon.
7. Mark Melancon-AAA- 15 IP, 15 Ks, 5 BBs, 3.92 FIP
Melancon has been his usual self to this point, except that his walk rate has been a little high as well as his HR/FB%. We’ll be seeing him in the Bronx on Sunday.
8. JR Murphy- Has not played
9. Jairo Heredia-A+ - 14 IP, 11 Ks, 7 BBs, 5.10 FIP
He’s been bad early on for Tampa. Heredia has been hampered by a .404 BABIP but the BB% is out of control. His LOB% is unusually low (34%) and coupled with his BABIP, he should see some improvement in the future.
10. Adam Warren- A+ - 29 IP, 22 Ks, 6 BBs, 2.86 FIP
Warren has been as good as advertised early on. He’s been helped out by a 64 GB% and has been impressively dominating A+ ball. He may be landing in Trenton sometime this year.
11. Hector Noesi- A+ - 27 IP, 32 Ks, 2 BBs, 2.61 FIP
Noesi also has been as good as advertised and should be showing up in Trenton even sooner. The command of 3 solid pitches and fantastic command have contributed to the eyebrow raising early success.
12. DJ Mitchell- AA- 19 IP, 8 Ks, 14 BBs, 4.73 FIP
Mitchell has really struggled in his AA debut. The bad news is his BABIP isn’t crazy enough to explain away the poor results (.281) and command, not usually an issue of his, has been the main culprit. The good news, at least so far is that the GB rate has remained very solid- 64%.
13. Jose Ramirez- A- 23 IP, 29 Ks, 6 BBs, 1.74 FIP
Sleeper no more- Ramirez has been as good as we thought he could be. He’s actually been the victim of a .330 BABIP yet has still posted phenomenal results. Hopefully he can keep this up.
14. Andrew Brackman- A+ - 8 IP, 5 Ks, 1 BB, 4.70 FIP
Well it could be worse. Despite allowing 15 runs so far, Brackman when he has pitched (suffered a cut on his pitching finger) has at least exhibited some control. We’ll see what happens the rest of the year.
15. Dellin Betances- has not pitched yet
16. Bradley Suttle- A+ - .250/.307/.338, 0 HR, .289 wOBA
Suttle missed all of 2009 and so far it’s really showed. Strike outs have been a problem but he’s coming back from a big injury so he’ll have plenty of time to ease back into it.
17. David Adams- AA- .321/.404/.513, 2 HR, .421 wOBA
Adams has been without doubt the systems hottest hitter early on. He’ll probably fall back to earth sometime in the future but the BB% has remained solid which his good and so far he hasn’t hit a wall progressing from A ball to AA.
18. Wilkins de la Rosa- AA- 13 IP, 8 Ks, 8 BBs, 4.73 FIP
De La Rosa has gotten off to a slow start along with the rest of the AA bullpen. Command has always been iffy with De La Rosa but not THIS bad- and the K% is down so far. But it’s not much of a sample and the season is very long.
19. Gary Sanchez- Has not played
20. Kelvin De Leon- Has not played
21. Ivan Nova- AAA- 30 IP, 28 Ks, 10 BBs, 3.30 FIP
He’s been surprisingly good so far. Nova’s K/9 is up and the BB/9 is down. That’s progress folks. Hopefully this keeps up.
22. Romulo Sanchez-AAA- 18 IP, 14 Ks, 12 BBs, 5.98 FIP
Sanchez has not been sharp as a starter so far. Control is, and likely always will be an issue for him. He’s got plenty of room for growth so hopefully he can improve on his early season struggles.
23. Corban Joseph- A+ - .313/.348/.482, 2 HRs, .368 wOBA
It’s looking good for Joseph early so far, showing some power that was missing last year. Weirdly, he hasn’t been walking nearly as much which is not a good sign, although he’s improved on that lately.
24. Caleb Cotham- has not pitched yet
25. Kyle Higashioka- A- .206/.306/.333, 2 HRs, .330 wOBA
He hasn’t hit very well so far but he’s still exhibiting the good plate discipline and hasn’t struck out much. A .206 BABIP has definitely tampered the results.
26. Kevin Russo- AAA- .278/.374/.392, 1 HR, .348 wOBA
Russo has been playing multiple positions and got off to a terrible start but has been much better of late. As long as he’s getting on base and working on his positional utility, I’ll be happy.
27. George Kontos- has not pitched
28. Dan Brewer- AA- .233/.305/.329, 0 HR, .286 wOBA
He has also really struggled to put it together in Trenton early on. 8 stolen bases in April have been nice, but so far he’s been overmatched at the dish.
29. Damon Sublett-AA- .267/.365/.444, 2 HRs, .358 wOBA
Sublett went down with a thumb injury and will miss the rest of the year. It’s too bad since he got off to a nice start before the injury.
30. Greg Golson- AAA- .275/.296/.478, 2 HRs, .341 wOBA
Golson has swung a hot bat so far but the plate discipline shows no early sign of improvement. He has cut down significantly, at least so far, on the strikeouts which is a positive sign, as are the early HRs and 3 triples.
