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13 May 2010
Hitters just cannot square up Phil's fastball very often. Now I understand that I haven't been the first to have made this observation, nor have I been the first to comment on the general quality of his stuff, but last night's start against the Tigers made me admire how good his fastball really is.
Fastball A: 9.1% whiff rate, 27.1% foul rate, 14.3% in play, 1.64 wFB/C (.64 career)
Fastball B: 6.9% whiff rate, 24.9% foul rate, 16.7% in play, 0.01 wFB/C (.44 career)
*thanks to Trip Somers' pitch f/x tool
If I told you before the season that these two fastballs belong to Phil Hughes and Justin Verlander, which one would you have picked to throw fastball A and fastball B? I don't know what you would have guessed, but I can tell you right now that Phil Hughes throws fastball A and Verlander throws fastball B (not including today's game). Hughes, while lacking the elite velocity and reputation of Verlander, has arguably showcased a much better fastball this season. For additional context, consider the fact that the average fastball garners about 6% whiffs. Verlander, while significantly above average in this category, is not really that close to Hughes. This fact shows up in the disparity between their wFB/C figures (wFB/C measures, via linear weights, the effectiveness of a pitch. Higher numbers are better).
Number 65's fastball allows him to be quite the interesting pitcher. As we have discussed, good things don't happen very often when you swing at Phil Hughes' fastball. This is evidenced by a career HR/FB rate of 7.2% and a career BABIP of .288. Now for most pitchers, this would indicate that the pitcher had probably been the beneficiary of good luck in a small sample size; the league average HR/FB rate is around 10%, and the league average BABIP is about .300. Nearly all pitchers, in enough time, regress to figures pretty close to league average in these two areas. Yet there certainly are extraordinary pitchers who defy this DIPS based theory. These pitchers usually have an outstanding fastball, often with a high degree of vertical movement (relative to a ball thrown without spin).
For example, in recent years Trevor Hoffman has gotten around 13 inches of vertical movement on his fastball. This makes in difficult for hitters to really put a charge into the ball, and the results include a very high pop-up rate of 13.9% (since 2002) and a very low HR/FB rate of 6.6% (since 2002). Obviously pitching in Petco for all those years helped Hoffman quite a bit, but his HR/FB and pop-up abilities are directly influenced by his special fastball. Mariano Rivera has showcased a similar skills too.
Yet Hoffman and Rivera are relievers, and Phil Hughes is a starter who has to rely on more than one or two outstanding pitches to get by. Thankfully, there are starting pitchers who too are capable of suppressing HR/FB and inflating IFFB rates (which in turn lower BABIP). One of these is Jered Weaver. Now Weaver does not throw gas, but he does have a fastball with around 12 inches of vertical movement, which has helped him to a nifty 13.3 IFFB (which has helped him to a .295 BABIP) and 8% HR/FB, over a decent sample size.
So far in his young career, Phil Hughes has a 7.2% HR/FB rate and a 12.5% IFFB rate. He gets around 11 inches of vertical movement on his fastball, which is not as much Hoffman or Weaver, but is still significantly above average. The average fastball (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-league-average-pitcher/) is around 91.5 mph with about 9.7 inches of vertical movement and about 5.5 inches of horizontal movement. Hughes' fastball registers above average for all three of those characteristics.
Does Phil Hughes have an excellent fastball? Yes. Does he have the kind of fastball that can help him suppress BABIP and HR/FB in a sustainable fashion? Phil hasn't pitched enough yet for us to have a completely valid yes or no answer to that question. However, I think it's a distinct possibility, and in five years from now I wouldn't be surprised if Phil had a career BABIP of around .295 and a career HR/FB of around 8.5%. Keep in mind that a sustainable 8.5% makes a lot of difference over a career when compared to a league average of 10-11% (same for BABIP).
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Icon SMI
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12 May 2010
The MLB draft is coming up in less than a month and it’s about time we start looking at who the Yankees might take at #32. It’s difficult to peg where everyone will fall beyond Bryce Harper even a few weeks out because there’s plenty of baseball left to be played. This is a general list of players that may be available. In the next couple of weeks good performances could put a few guys (Paxton, Harvey, and Workman) well out of site of pick 32.
James Paxton- LHP- Grand Prairie AirHogs
Paxton was drafted by the Blue Jays last year but didn’t sign. This year he’ll start pitching for the AirHogs soon, an independent team in the Midwest. Paxton has a fastball that sits in the mid 90’s and has touched 98- he also has a plus slider and the makings of a decent changeup. While his control was sometimes spotty, he’s a big projectable left hander who throws hard- easy to see why he gets so much attention. It’ll be tough to figure where Paxton will wind up until he starts pitching again, but so far early bets have him pegged as a supplemental round selection. Don’t get too excited though, as a solid performance in the independent league and Paxton may rocket up draft boards once again.
Matt Harvey-RHP- UNC
Harvey was drafted back in 2007 but slipped to the third round due to signabilty concerns and eventually wound up at UNC. His fastball is also in the mid 90s, and has gotten it up to 97 at times this year. He also has an above average change up but has really struggled to find any consistency with either a curveball or slider, which he currently throws. Another huge issue with him: command. It ranges in reports from average to horrible.
Barret Loux-RHP-Texas A&M
Mike Axisa touched on Loux earlier because he was featured in Andy Seiler’s mock draft. Loux sits 90-94 and has a 4 pitch mix that include a plus change up, an average curveball and a fringy, slurvy slider. He has good command however and a clean and easy delivery. He’s striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings so far while walking just 3 per 9 with a nifty 3.15 FIP.
Gary Brown-OF-Cal State Fullerton
Brown is the noted team mate of the likely top 20 pick Christian Colon. Brown will remind you a lot of Brett Gardner. He has blazing speed and terrific defense with an aggressive approach (unlike Gardner) but gets on base often. If you think he has any chance to hit for power at all (he is 6’0” 185), he’s your man- a future leadoff hitter with a ton of stolen bases. If not? Maybe Juan Pierre.
LeVon Washington- 2B/OF- Chipola JC
Washington was chosen a year ago by Tampa but did not sign going to play at Chipola Jr College instead. Washington moved to the outfield and has had a mixed season- he hasn’t been quite as impressive as scouts would like and has perceived “hustle” problems for some. What we do know about Washington is that he can hit well with a bit of surprising power for his size and plus speed. 2nd base might ultimately be the better destination for Washington as he doesn’t have much of a throwing arm.
Stetson Allie-INF/RHP- OH (HS)
Allie is probably one of the more interesting players in the draft. As a pitcher, Allie throws in the upper 90’s and in work outs and combines has hit 100 with his power fastball. What’s really been interesting is the development of his power slider, an 87-91 mph “wipeout pitch” according to a report from Keith Law. Stetson is a big boy- 6’4”, 230. He also has a changeup that he throws irregularly but is thrown 85-89 with some good tail. On the other side of the coin, Allie is a 3B/1B (with the emphasis on 1B) with a very big power bat. Most see Allie as a pitcher with better than even odds to wind up a closer. If he can harness all his stuff and throw strikes consistently, he would have a chance to become a #1 starter. Command and focus have been issues at times for him however and he’ll command an awfully large signing bonus one way or the other.
Jesse Hahn-RHP- Virginia Tech
The big 6’5” 200 lbs ace from Virginia Tech has an electric fastball that hits the upper 90s (sits around 94) and a two seamer with great tail and sink. His curveball is good but not great and can add and subtract to it. He also has a decent changeup but he hasn’t thrown it very often. He has had issues with his delivery though and his command has suffered. He may be a reliever in the future if he can’t iron out those problems and additionally has had some arm troubles so far which have caused his stock to drop.
Yordy Cabrera-SS/RHP- FL (HS)
A 6’4” future 3rd baseman or corner outfielder, Cabrera has a good bat and decent athleticism for his size. He has some good raw power and plenty of tools but he’s been inconsistent this year and has had questions about his fielding ability. He’s one of the rawest players likely to be drafted in the first round and the team that takes him will have to trust he can capitalize on all those tools at the next level.
Brandon Workman-RHP- Texas
Workman is the Longhorn’s front line starter and with good reason. He has a fastball that sits 90-95, a plus cutter and an average to plus 12-6 curveball. He also has a changeup which he doesn’t throw often but as is the case with all of his pitches, he commands it well. Workman has good makeup and constitution along with a great frame (6’5” 220). The only real negative associated with Workman are his mechanics which are a little rough. He has been rising up many draft boards but a recent rough outing is forcing some scouts to reconsider.
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12 May 2010
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11 May 2010
Not much to write about tonight. The Yankees game and the Scranton game were both rained out, and Charleston was off today.
Jeremy Bleich busted out of his slump. He had walked as many or more batters in his past five starts until tonight. He pitched 6.1 innings, allowed one run on three hits and two walks, and struck out five hitters. Not a superb start, but definitely an improvement. Hopefully this is a sign that Bleich found his command and he'll be able to work off of this start.
In Tampa, Adam Warren probably had one of the worst starts of his career. He only made it through four innings and gave up three runs on six hits and two walks. He did manage to strike out four batters in the game, though.
Anyway, enjoy your evening. We'll have some fresh content for you tomorrow.
Update(11:43 PM): Graham Stoneburner has been promoted(h/t RAB) from Charleston to Tampa. There was a lot of speculation that this would be the case after he was removed from his last start after just an inning, but I had heard that it was due to an innings limit. This makes much more sense, though.
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11 May 2010
