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14 November 2010
Next up is Tampa, where a lot of positive stuff happened for Yankee pitchers in 2010. The FSL is a pretty well known pitchers league, so keep that in mind while evaluating these numbers.
The BB/9 is listed on the X axis while the K/9 is on the Y axis, meaning of course the quadrant you want to show up in is the upper left. With the short season teams, sample size is a pretty big issue- a lot of these guys bounced around and didn't get anywhere near the proper amount of innings pitched to stabilize their numbers. So don't get too excited/bummed about any of these graphs, especially for the short season guys.
Hector Noesi picked up exactly where he left off in 2009. He opened the year in Tampa and only pitched 43 innings here before getting bumped up after displaying more of his exceptional command and control. He was working in his slider a lot this year to go along with the plus curve, fastball and change....Dellin Betances jumped back onto the map in 2010 after breaking out in Tampa. He smoothed out his mechanics and his control improved markedly which was huge for him...Andrew Brackman had a very similar season to Betances. Bouncing back from the injuries of the past few years, he too worked out his mechanical flaws and posted results which befit one of his talents. One thing I liked especially about Brackman's season was his ability to keep the ball on the ground...Manny Banuelos really was fantastic this year. After recovering from his appendectomy he was brilliant in Tampa. He found some extra life on his fastball and has certainly emerged as the Yankees top pitching prospect, at least for me. His plus change up works to both LH and RH batters and his curve is rounding into shape.
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11 November 2010
There has been a lot of spectacular writing about Derek Jeter these days. This is because there is simply so much to talk about with one of the game's most prominent characters - the icon, number 2, shortstop for the New York Yankees. Better writers than me have discussed, ad nasuem, his gold glove award, his imminent contract, his on the field value vs. his off the field value, etc. Today I will take a much easier approach to discussing the issues surrounding the face of the Yankee franchise. So simple, in fact, that I will only look at one question: what contract will Jeter get?
Earlier this year Fangraphs started crowdsourcing for predictions of free agent contracts. After they did the first of these crowdsourcing polls, I got the idea to do crowdsourcing for Derek Jeter. I decided to to this at an internet venue where the respondents would know Jeter the best - NYYFans forum.
Here are my results, combined with the crowdsourcing polls ran by Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs:
| NYYFans | Fangraphs | Baseball Prospectus | Average | |
| Avg. years | 3.49 | 3.38 | 3.35 | 3.41 |
| Avg. salary | 16.31 | 14.91 | 16.20 | 15.81 |
| Med. years | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Med. salary | 16 | 15 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| StdDev. years | 1.22 | .82 | .93 | .99 |
| StdDev. salary | 4.36 | 4.20 | 4.28 | 4.28 |
*Timeframe: my poll started 8/31, Fangraphs poll started 9/7, and the BP poll started 9/2
From this data we can predict that Jeter will recieve a contract of around 3 years and 46.5 million. From this data we can also see that Yankee fans (the posters at NYYFans) value Jeter a little more than other respondents, which is unsurprising.
Unfortunately, given Brian Cashman's recent comments about Jeter being a "legacy" player, I think it is likely the contract Jeter will receive will be a lot closer to (gasp!) around 4 years and 80 million, which is pretty close to one standard deviation above average for these polls (in both years and salary). But that's just my opinion.
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10 November 2010
Baseball America today released their top 10 Yankee prospect list.
Overall I think the list is pretty solid. Baseball America is obviously privy to a ton of information I am not, but here are my only objections on this list:
- I would have had Banuelos higher than Betances. I suppose this could be a matter of preference but for me the age difference, injury history and Banuelos being a lefty now sitting in the mid 90s pushes him over the top.
- Brandon Laird and Eduardo Nunez would not have made my top 10 list (which I'll put together at some point, I swear). Laird doesn't really have a position and if you figure him as a corner outfielder, I'm not sure he can hit enough to be anything more than bench option. My "prospect list philosophy" tends to be skewed towards upside- I'm a big ceiling type guy. Laird doesn't have that for me. I think David Adams would sneak in there on my list.
Nunez....well I just can't understand what Baseball America sees in him. He's a career minor league hitter of .274/.318/.369. He's never had a walk rate higher than 7%. The one legitimate skill he probably does have is the ability to avoid striking out. Despite what you'll see in a moment, he's not a good fielder either. According to TotalZone, in 6 minor league years he's been -40 runs below average. That's NEGATIVE 40. If you don't like TotalZone, he's made 167 errors in those 6 years. That's um, not any good either. In a ridiculously small, minuscule, microscopic sample, UZR had him at -2.5 runs below average. John Dewan's system, +/-, had him at -2 runs below average as well. There just isn't anything to hang your hat on, no matter how hard you look. The notion that he could be a starting shortstop in this league, to me at least, is an insult to all current starting shortstops. Keith Law in his last chat and a tweet I think summed it up best:
My sentiments exactly.
My favorite part of the Baseball America lists are actually the "Best Tools" component.
These are pretty hard to quibble with as they're all just opinions of their scouting staff. I think it's fairy obvious I would disagree strongly with Best Defensive Infielder. I guess they try to pick a SS for that slot since it's the most important infield defensive position. On the other hand, last year they picked Cervelli as best defensive catcher- Oops! Cito Culver could be a candidate for best defensive infielder in the future. Best strike zone discipline would definitely fit with David Adams. Corban Joseph was another guy that immediate sprung to mind for me, as well as Kevin Mahoney. Also I'm kind of surprised Banuelos didn't win best change up, but Jose Ramirez is supposed to have a nasty one himself.
Finally as a last shot at Eduardo Nunez, I offer you this:
Oh, yo no lo creo, señor Villa. Yo no lo creo.
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09 November 2010
Next up is the NY Penn League Staten Island Yankees.
The BB/9 is listed on the X axis while the K/9 is on the Y axis, meaning of course the quadrant you want to show up in is the upper left. With the short season teams, sample size is a pretty big issue- a lot of these guys bounced around and didn't get anywhere near the proper amount of innings pitched to stabilize their numbers. So don't get too excited/bummed about any of these graphs, especially for the short season guys.
Staten Island was home to some really bad defense this year, as our eyes on the ground can attest too. That would explain why the SI ERAs are significantly higher as a group than their FIPs- poor fielding definitely hurt the pitching staff. The staff as a whole looks like it may have some decent future relievers on it, but as always with the short season leagues, it's hard to tell for sure.
Zach Varce is a name that's getting some buzz out of the 2010 draft. Projected as a reliever, he throws in the low 90s and mainly features a pretty solid curveball as well as slider....It feels like Nick Turley has been around forever, but he was just 20 this past year. He's a big lefty but the velocity hasn't developed as the Yankees probably hoped it would. He's still in that iffy potential stage....Shane Greene has some decent stuff and probably also projects as a reliever down the road. Low to mid 90s fastball with some sink on it, makings of a good slider and change up. Mechanical issues can be an issue at times but the 2009 15th rounder shows the outline of a quality bullpen arm....Preston Claiborne is another relief pitcher, taken in the 17th round out of Tulane- he has a mid 90s fastball and a real good change up along with an iffy slider. If he gets his mechanics ironed out, he'll have a real promising future.
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08 November 2010
After a lengthy absence due to a particularly busy time of the year for me, I'm back. I think. For awhile. Anyway, I'm gonna start posting more of our "Season in Review" type stuff starting with the BB and K rates for pitchers at each minor league level.
The BB/9 is listed on the X axis while the K/9 is on the Y axis, meaning of course the quadrant you want to show up in is the upper left. With the short season teams, sample size is a pretty big issue- a lot of these guys bounced around and didn't get anywhere near the proper amount of innings pitched to stabilize their numbers. So don't get too excited/bummed about any of these graphs, especially for the short season guys.
I was pretty excited about Bryan Mitchell's debut this year and he wound up posting decent numbers. After being a little dinged up to start the year, the 2009 draftee worked mostly on developing his change up to compliment his plus fastball and curve ball. He was reportedly working on command issues with his delivery and finished the year strong....Conor Mullee was the Yankees 24th round selection in the 2010 draft who was converted from SS. He had pitched something like 4 or 5 innings in college but the Yankees must have seen the potential in his arm and he had a nice debut. Literally learning how to pitch all year, Mullee has a 95+ fastball that was enough to blow away the younger GCL competition (2.34 FIP). He's also got a slider that is a work in progress but the results are encouraging for a first time pitcher....Evan DeLuca got a lot of attention for being a promising left handed prospect but really had some issues in terms of command this year. It was nice to see the 19 year old be able to miss some bats though....
