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20 May 2010
This year Yankees' pitchers have gotten groundballs on 45.1% of balls in play. Last year they had a rate of 42.3%. This may seem like a small difference at first, but over the course of the season this is a pretty significant change. Before the season, it seemed likely that the Yankees would get less groundballs this year due to the additions of flyball pitchers Javier Vazquez and Phil Hughes to the rotation. So what is cause of this surprising increase?
2009 2010
42.9% 51.7%
42.8% 49.7%
42.9% 47.3%
These are the groundball rates of three pitchers that comprise a large portion of Yankee innings: (starting from top to bottom) Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. As you can see, all three pitchers are getting many more groundballs than last year. They have accomplished this by going to the two-seamer more often that ever. All three pitchers are throwing two-seamers at least 19.4% of the time this year. According to the pitch f/x data on Fangraphs, this is increase in usage of more than 12% for all three pitchers, and an increase of over 20% for Sabathia (who also had the greatest increase in groundball percentage from 2009 to 2010).
As all of us in Yankeeland are aware, Yankee Stadium gives up quite its share of homeruns. The best way to combat this pitching obstacle is to either strikeout more batters, or get more groundballs. Thankfully the Yankees have been working on the latter this season. We can also see this effect in how many homeruns the Yankees have given up. This year the Yankees are giving up 1.03 HR/9, while last year they gave up 1.12 HR/9. Obviously a slightly lower HR/FB rate this year and a league wide offensive dip contribute to this difference, but it's a significant change nonetheless.
The Cardinals' pitching coach, Dave Duncan, is known for his prowess in getting his pitchers to make opposing batters pound the ball into the ground. Now I have no idea whether Eiland communicated the advantages of such a strategy to Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte, but it's interesting that all three started throwing the two-seamer at much higher percentages this year.
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17 May 2010
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17 May 2010
Some links to hold you over until the Yankee game starts:
I had sworn off going to ESPN New York after reading some of the drivel from Ian O'Connor and Wallace Matthews, but Mark Simon put together a great column on the WPA leaders in the Boston/New York rivalry. It's a great way to show who really has had the most impact. Spoiler: A-Rod has the highest WPA of any Yankee against the Sox.
A few days ago, Matt at Fack Youk took a look at some of the mainstream criticisms of Jesus Montero and responded to them. The closing line is key: "Just calm down, relax, and let him spend the year at AAA. We'll reap the benefits in the years to come." I second this message.
JMK at RAB checked in on the Yanks' prospects in Triple-A. He looks at Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez, Juan Miranda, Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister, Romulo Sanchez, and Mark Melancon. Most of these guys are doing pretty well, head over and see what they've done.
EJ Fagan at TYU says that Austin Romine's stock is rising. I agree with that, but I don't really agree with EJ's conclusion. He suggests that the Yankees should consider promoting Romine to Triple-A soon, so that he could fill in on the major league roster if necessary later in the season. Personally, I'd rather take it slow with Romine and let him have sustained success at Double-A before calling him up to Scranton. Right now, Chad Moeller is the team's third catcher and I'm just fine with that. No need to rush anyone right now.
The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte shows us a dumb paragraph by a sportswriter. Wow. That is extremely dumb. Go check it out. She also takes a look at who Yankee fans should blame after a given loss.
Larry at Yankeeist interviews Matt and Jay of Fack Youk. Fack Youk is definitely one of my favorite Yankee blogs, and it's always nice to see what drives the writers. If you don't already read Fack Youk, start.
I feel like I'm breaking some sort of personal rule by linking to NYBD, but Jed Weisberger tells us a nice story about Brandon Laird's big day(2 HR, 7 RBI) yesterday: his family flew in to see him play.
We also have had a few good posts put up here over the past day. So check those out, enjoy them, and maybe even leave a comment. Have a nice evening and enjoy the game tonight. Phil Hughes is pitching, so it should be a fun one..
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17 May 2010
Yankee fans have been here before. A pitcher who is pegged for the upper half of the first round starts sliding. He’s been injured and successive bad starts have had him tumbling so far, he may fall out of the first round altogether. Sound familiar?
Andrew Brackman and Joba Chamberlain could not be in more different places right now, but on successive early June dates in 2006 and 2007, they were very much in the same place. Both Brackman and Chamberlain were initially heralded as early first round picks. Both dropped late due to injury concerns among other reasons. Both were drafted by the Yankees. One has been a controversial but widely recognized success while the other has to this point been an unmitigated disaster.
So if the Yankees take Anthony Ranaudo late in the first round, expect the comparisons to start flying. At one time thought to be the #2 pick in the draft, he has been plummeting down draft boards and many think he may drop out of the first round altogether.
The LSU 6’7” ace has a mid 90’s 4 seam and 2 seam fastball along with a “spike” or “knuckle” curve and the makings of an average changeup. He’s been the ace for one of the top college programs in the country and has clean mechanics that have allowed him to be durable (until this year obviously) and consistent late into games. In 2009, only Steven Strasburg and Mike Leake had more division 1 strikeouts. Originally slated to be a top 5 selection, Ranaudo had an elbow injury that kept him from pitching for several weeks. Upon returning, he’s been inconsistent and borderline awful. While the stuff may be back, command and control have eluded him (5 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 5.04 FIP). He also has Scott Boras as an agent.
For some, they’ll see Ranaudo as Brackman 2.0 and want to avoid him at all costs. Others might see the success of Joba Chamberlain and be encouraged. The contrasts are stark, the possibilities obvious. There are no promises he’ll be available at all of course. A string of good outings in the SEC tournament or college World Series could boost him back into the early first round. Organizationally, Ranaudo makes sense with what Damon Oppenheimer tends to like. A college pitcher with some upside that for one reason or another drops to them.
So as we get closer to draft day, would you be interested in Ranaudo?
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17 May 2010
In case you hadn't heard, the Yankees promoted right-hander Hector Noesi from Tampa to Trenton yesterday. John Nalbone thinks that it is time to crank up the hype machine for Noesi. While Noesi has been a personal favorite of mine for a while due to his great strikeout and walk skills, I'm not sure we should get too excited just yet.
When I ranked Noesi as the Yankees' 11th best prospect this past offseason, I actually assumed that he would begin the year in Trenton. I don't want to take anything away from what Noesi has done in Tampa so far, as his line was great:
43 IP, 35 H, 13 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 53 K, 2.72 ERA, 2.06 FIP
But the thing is that Noesi was nearly as good in 41 innings in Tampa last season, when he posted a 2.57 FIP. When Noesi started the year at Tampa, we should have expected dominance from him, and that is what we received. He's 23-years-old, which is older than much of his competition, and mainly gets by with command and good secondary stuff.
With that combination, it was extremely predictable that Noesi would just eat up FSL hitters. Again, I don't want to take anything away from him, I just want to put his hot start in perspective. Right now, I don't view Noesi much differently than I did a month ago.
Besides for a few innings in 2007, Noesi has never really been challenged in professional ball. Heading to AA Trenton is a big jump, and this is when we'll really see what Noesi is made of. It's been a long time coming, and I look forward to seeing how Noesi's game translates to the next level.
As the Yankees bring Noesi up, they simultaneously have moved Ryan Pope to the bullpen. Pope received some hype during spring training as reports of his added velocity led to optimism throughout the organization. Things did not go as planned, and Pope really struggled out of the Trenton rotation:
37 IP, 38 H, 21 ER, 4 HR, 17 BB, 23 K, 5.11 ERA, 4.74 FIP
After a strong first start where he struck out seven and walked one, things really went downhill and there was no other positive signs. Pope was never really much of a prospect, so the bullpen is a better place for him. If he was going to make it to the majors at any point, it was likely to be as a reliever anyway.
Pope got into his first game since being moved to the bullpen yesterday and did a phenomenal job, striking out four batters in two perfect innings. That's an encouraging sign for Pope, and maybe he will be able to do a good job out of the 'pen. Over the past few years we've seen how much more effective a pitcher can be when he can utilize his best pitches in short bursts. It looks like both the Trenton rotation and Bullpen just got a whole lot stronger.
Photo Credit: wayne.koehler
