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06 June 2010
Cervelli started the season on fire, posting a .390 wOBA in March/April. By May 18th he had even improved his wOBA to .439. Unfortunately, this was mainly on the strength of an other-wordly BABIP, meaning that he was due for a statistical correction. He ended up posting a .340 wOBA in May and has a paltry .209 wOBA so far in June. Right now his wOBA stands at .333, good enough for 6% above league average. But is this his true talent level?
| Cervelli | Average | |
| plate discipline (BB/K) | .82 | .50 |
| iso | .070 | .147 |
| BABIP | .330 | .298 |
He had shown good plate discipline in the minors, but nothing that would indicate he was capable of a major league .82 BB/K ratio (along with an above-average walk rate). Thankfully, his plate discipline numbers are excellent. He does not chase out of the zone often (17.8%, 27.9% is average), he makes contact (85.2%, 81.1% is average), and he doesn't swing often in general (39.7%, 44.9% is average). These are excellent numbers and portray sustainability. However, BB/K stablizes around 200 PA's, so it is possible (and perhaps likely) Cervelli regresses a little further.
Cervelli does not have a lot of pop, so unfortunately a low iso seems here to stay. In the minors he posted iso figures typically in the .100-.125 range. Given how low his iso currently is, it's possible his iso creeps up little as he gets more experience, but in all likelihood he will never hit for even average power.
His BABIP of .330 is also due for regression. He showcased good BABIP skill in the minors, but his batted ball profile does not indicate anything special. His line drive rate is low (15.5% this season, 17.6% career) and he's not immune to the pop-up either. He hasn't played enough for his batted ball profile to stablize, but right now he doesn't look like anything more than a league average BABIP player.
He currently has a .333 wOBA, a far cry from the .439 wOBA he had earlier. Yet he appears to be in line for additional regression, given his high BABIP and that his BB/K ratio is unprecedented. His true talent level is probably around a .310-.320 wOBA. Over a fullseason, this would mean he would be about 5-9 runs below average. Thankfully, catchers that can hit are pretty rare, so the positional adjustment for catchers is rather large (+12.5 runs per 162 games played). A below average bat, combined with a nice positional adjustment and good defense makes him around a 2.5 WAR player (slightly above average).
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01 June 2010
1. Jesus Montero: 173 PA, 34 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 29 K, .219/.295/.348
As Sean noted yesterday, Montero is off to a very rough start, something he has never really experienced before at the professional level. Hopefully he can get over this little hump and get back to being the hitter he was last season.
2. Austin Romine: 172 PA, 51 H, 16 2B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 31 K, .325/.384/.484
Aided by an inflated .390 BABIP, but he has also been hitting a ton of line drives. I like the steady increase in walk rate, but he also has struck out at a career high rate.
3. Slade Heathcott: Has yet to play above extended spring training.
4. Zach McAllister: 10 G, 58 IP, 64 H, 6 HR, 26 ER, 11 BB, 40 K, 4.03 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 41% GB
The drop in GB rate is a concern, but not a terrible first ten starts for Z-Mac.
5. Manny Banuelos: Has yet to make his 2010 debut after undergoing an appendectomy.
6. Jeremy Bleich: 8 GS, 41.1 IP, 35 H, 2 HR, 22 ER, 28 BB, 26 K, 4.79 ERA, 4.83 FIP
Rough start for Bleich. He recently went down with a shoulder injury and appears headed for surgery. This sucks, but at least it could explain why he was pitching so poorly.
7. Mark Melancon: 19 G, 28 IP, 32 H, 3 HR, 9 ER, 13 BB, 35 K, 2.89 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 55% GB
Melancon was more dominant in 2009, but has still pitched well for Scranton. The 10.2% BB/PA is unexpected though. In Triple-A last season, he walked just 5.3%.
8. JR Murphy: 58 PA, 12 H, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 10 K, 2 SB, .222/.259/.315
I was surprised to see the Yankees call Murphy up to Charleston. I forget where, but I recently read that they wanted him to get used to playing in a large stadium, and he will play for Staten Island when the NYPL begins.
9. Jairo Heredia: 10 GS, 48.2 IP, 70 H, 4 HR, 16 BB, 31 K, 4.38 FIP
Really rough season so far for Heredia, as he recovers from injury. He started the year in Tampa and was recently sent down to Charleston, but he has continued to struggle. He would take a big tumble in the rankings if we were to update them.
10. Adam Warren: 10 GS, 54 IP, 48 H, 1 HR, 16 ER, 14 BB, 40 K, 2.67 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 59% GB
Off to a great start in his first full professional season. He's continued to show a strong tendency to get ground balls, strikeouts, and has also been able to keep his walk rate down. I wonder how much longer they'll keep him in A-ball.
11. Hector Noesi: 10 GS, 49 IP, 42 H, 5 HR, 7 BB, 58 K, 3.31 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 39% GB
His numbers would have looked a lot prettier before his first AA start, when he gave up 5 runs on two homers. But still, the guy has struck out 10.5 batters per nine while walking only 1.3; it doesn't get too much better than that.
12. D.J. Mitchell: 10 GS, 52.1 IP, 61 H, 3 HR, 29 ER, 26 BB, 37 K, 4.99 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 61% GB
Leading the farm system in GB%, but not doing too well in AA. For him to succeed, he definitely needs to struck out a few more batters and walk a few less. One interesting note is that he has handled lefties better than righties so far this year. Usually, he has struggled against left handed batters.
13. Jose Ramirez: 10 GS, 56 IP, 47 H, 0 HR, 16 ER, 12 BB, 55 K, 2.57 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 48% GB
Great few months for Ramirez, as he builds on the hype that surrounded him in the offseason.
14. Andrew Brackman: 8 GS, 38 IP, 48 H, 3 HR, 25 ER, 5 BB, 29 K, 5.92 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 59% GB
His BABIP against is .357, which will likely go down, especially if he continues to garner so many ground balls. Some important things to note regarding his strikeouts and walks: he has faced so many batters because he's given up so many hits, both his strikeout rate and walk rate are lower than you'd really expect from the raw numbers.
15. Dellin Betances: Has yet to debut, recovering from surgery.
16. Brad Suttle: 207 PA, 44 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 18 BB, 51 K, 7 SB, .240/.304/.322
Very disappointing from a guy who I was hoping would break out this year.
17. David Adams: 173 PA, 47 H, 15 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 18 BB, 31 K, 5 SB, .309/.393/.507
Big year for him, but he's currently on the DL with a sprained right ankle. Hopefully he returns to the lineup soon.
18. Wilkin De La Rosa: 13 G, 27.2 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 13 ER, 16 BB, 17 K, 4.23 ERA, 4.40 FIP
Disappointing year for him, too. I expected him to take a step forward when the Yankees put him in the bullpen, not a step backwards. This is a guy who struck out just under one batter per inning last season. 5.5 K/9 is pretty terrible.
19. Gary Sanchez: Has yet to debut above extended spring training.
20. Kelvin De Leon: Has yet to debut above EST.
21. Ivan Nova: 9 GS, 50.1 IP, 53 H, 4 HR, 23 ER, 19 BB, 41 K, 4.11 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 53% GB
Pretty much what you should expect out of Nova. He has also pitched a few shutout innings for the Yankees this season.
22. Romulo Sanchez: 9 GS, 49 IP, 44 H, 3 HR, 26 ER, 27 BB, 45 K, 4.78 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 46% GB
The ERA is inflated as Romulo got off to a very rough start, but he has pitched much better as of late. He also had one outing in the majors, where he pitched 3.2 shutout innings.
23. Corban Joseph: 216 PA, 61 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 15 BB, 46 K, 3 SB, .316/.366/.456
His .399 BABIP is inflating his line, as his strikeout rate is way up from last season and his walk rate is way down. He needs to make some adjustments.
24. Caleb Cotham: Has yet to debut, recovering from surgery.
25. Kyle Higashioka: 172 PA, 30 H, 10 2B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 21 K, .200/.297/.327
Continues to show advanced knowledge of the strike zone and has a good approach at the plate, but the results just are not there at all yet. He has not managed to make consistently hard contact. I haven't lost all hope with Higashioka yet, though.
26. Kevin Russo: Was good in Triple-A and has filled in adequately in the Bronx.
27. George Kontos: Has yet to debut, recovering from surgery.
28. Dan Brewer: 196 PA, 41 H, 12 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 45 K, 16 SB, .243/.316/.391
Rough year for him is not too surprising. He wasn't all that good in Tampa last season and the push to Trenton seems to be a little much for him.
29. Damon Sublett: 52 PA, 12 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 14 K, .267/.365/.444
Was having a pretty Sublett-ian month until he got injured. He will be out for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery for a torn ligament in his thumb.
30. Greg Golson: 151 PA, 32 H, 2 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 33 K, 7 SB, 11 CS, .227/.265/.348
I took some heat for even including him in my top 30, and I guess I was just under the sway of his athleticism in tools. If I were to redo this list now, he probably wouldn't sniff the top 30.
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31 May 2010
The Yankees at the 32nd pick have been attached to a few names already, but I wanted to look at some guys who may fall to the bottom of the first round. A lot is still unsettled on the draft front so this will be pretty flexible so here's a quick look at some names that may or may not be around.
Austin Wilson- HS (CA), OF
Wilson is probably one of the top prep bats in the class but finds himself dropping due to a Stanford commitment that might require a ton of cash to turn him pro. He has potential to hit for power and has great line drive ability, spraying the ball to all fields. His above average arm and good range also lead many to believe he could be a plus right fielder. He’s also got great makeup with almost universal praise about his intelligence and work ethic.
Zach Lee- HS (TX), RHP
Zach Lee is a projectable starting pitcher who has 3 pitches with plus potential. His fastball sits in the low 90s and also offers a curveball and changeup which he can throw for strikes. With a chance to add velocity and only improve his command, Lee is an intriguing choice for a team willing to take a chance on him. He has a football commitment to LSU and has always been a 2 sport star. It would take a boat load of cash to sign him away from football.
Anthony Ranaudo- LSU-RHP
What else can be said about Ranaudo? We’ve talked about him previously but when healthy and pitching well Ranaudo looks like a top arm in the draft. He shows two plus pitches, a fastball with movement in the low 90s and a good curveball along with a decent changeup. His Scott Boras affiliation and injury/performance concerns have dropped him significantly. However Ranaudo did have his best outing of the spring last week and it will be interesting to see who gambles on his upside in the draft.
Kaleb Cowart- HS (GA)-SS
Cowart is a two way player a pitcher as well as a SS. Likely to play at 3B if he continues as a position player, the switch hitting HS has a good swing with quick bat speed and potential to hit for power. On the mound, he can dial up the fastball to the mid 90s but his secondary pitches are undeveloped right now.
Jesse Hahn- VA Tech-RHP
Hahn has good stuff but had not really put it all together before this season. His fastball sits 90-95 as a starter but plays up while pitching in relief. He has average secondary offerings but cleaning up his delivery would go a long way towards producing consistency. Some injury concerns have affected his status although he’s come back and pitched well since missing some time with forearm tightness.
Asher Wojciechowski- Citadel-RHP
Wojciechowski is a hard throwing right hander who has good velocity, decent control and really average secondary offerings. He gets the fastball up into the mid 90s during starts but it’s a little flat and command can come and go. His slider is a slurvy right now, thrown in the low 80s and the change up is a real work in progress. With some clean up in his delivery, Wojcichowski could profile as a solid starting pitcher or as a dominant reliever.
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31 May 2010
A few notes on a beautiful memorial day.
Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus has some notes on Brandon Laird and Corban Joseph. Both have been on fire recently and their seasons to date look like this:
Laird- .314/.360/.546 .232 ISO, .386 wOBA
Joseph- .316/.366/.466 .399 BABIP, .358 wOBA
Neither Laird nor Joseph walk very much (7.1 and 6.9 BB% respectively) but Joseph has subsisted on a much higher BABIP while Laird's is a more familiar .330. Goldstein calls Joseph a sleeper in the Yankee system which I suppose he probably is. Less heralded but also having a nice year is Luke Murton, the Yankees 19th round selection from Georgia Tech. While he also plays first base, no one will confuse him with Mark Teixeira but he's put up good numbers so far.
Murton is old for the SAL but it's not his fault he went to college. He's a big boy, (6'4", 220 lbs) so it's not surprising to see the power numbers. It's a nice start to the year, certainly worth noting.
Wayne Coffey at the Daily News has an article about Jesus Montero's struggles this year. It's an interesting read with quotes from Mark Newman and Montero. Look there is no question Jesus Montero has struggled at this level. And really, it's not all that surprising. He's 20 in AAA, one of the youngest players in the International league and catching every day. As Coffey notes, Montero has never really had a pronounced struggle before but the Yankees among others view it as a learning experience, comparing it to how Derek Jeter had to work through prolific throwing errors for a season. Neither Montero or the Yankees seem very concerned with his struggles so far and I think rightly so. You shouldn't be either.
The numbers just haven't been there so far for Montero.
You can see what sort of season it's been for Montero so far. The article notes that he's hit some balls extremely hard but they just haven't fallen in. The BABIP certainly is reflective of that. One positive I think about Montero so far is the increase in the BB%. Sometimes in a prolonged slump the BB% dips because the player tries to swing his way out of the hole. That Montero is walking more than normal I think is a good sign he's staying patient which is certainly reflected by his quotes in the article as well. Hopefully he'll start to pick it up soon and return to the mashing we're more familiar with. This article also mentions the improvements Montero has made as a catcher and the Yankees seem really pleased at his defensive progress.
As for the state of the blog, we're in full crisis mode. Josh has done more than his fair share, but Greg and I have been horrible. We apologize. Greg has a crazy school schedule right now and is also working full time. As for me, my work schedule has been overwhelming as well but I've managed to wrestle away a week for myself, coming back home for a little while here. Instead of blogging or doing something useful, this is what I've been doing:
That dude was weirded out by my picture, doesn't look thrilled.
We're going to get back into it though so don't forget us just yet. Happy Memorial day.
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27 May 2010
Brandon Laird had a huge game yesterday, hitting for the cycle and collecting three rbis. This gives him a .305/.356/.531 (.887 OPS) line on the season to date, which is great. Yet these numbers may actually lead us to underestimate his contributions this season. If we go to minorleaguesplits.com, we can see that his luck and park-adjusted line actually gives him a .940 OPS. This doesn't even account for the fact that minorleaguesplits.com is late on updating its statistics, so it doesn't include his monster game yesterday.
Now it's no guarantee that Laird keeps hitting like this, but if he does, expect to see him in the top-half of Yankees prospect (top-30) lists by the end of the season. Unfortunately for Laird, he plays mainly at the corner infield positions, which will be occupied in the majors by A-rod and Tex for years to come. However, he can still have value as either a trade chip or as a utility/platoon type player.
*photo credit: MILB.com player page
