Written by Josh W. | 09 June 2010

It's very hard for the Yankees to build up their farm system through the draft. Some may ask, "with the Yankees resources, why don't they dominate the draft?" Well the truth is that the talent often just isn't there. Thanks to Sky Kalkman's and Victor Wang's work (and others), we know that the value of a late first round pick is closer in value (measured by WAR) to the 500th pick than the first pick. This is demonstrated by Sky Andrecheck's graph:

Does this mean the Yankees are doomed to a cycle of drafting mediocrity? Thankfully not, because with the Yankees' resources, and a bit of luck, the Yankees are sometimes able to snag a top-half 1st round talent (think Brackman).

The Yankees can have all the money in the world, but when the talent disparity between the first few picks and the rest of the draft is so large, drafting is a going to be a challenge.

This is further demonstrated by this table (of only the first round):

This is why 32nd picks have such lukewarm history.

It's important to undestand that while the Yankees do have more resources than any other team, they also consistently have a terrible position to draft from, and that it's much more difficult for them to get top talent than one would think.

Written by Greg Fertel | 09 June 2010

How the Yankees depth chart currently stacks up, starting pitching-wise:

That didn't stop George A. King III, of The New York Post, from saying that the Yankees will be interested in Cliff Lee when the Mariners look to the trade market. My favorite line in the article:

... but if the Mariners are going to shop Lee the Yankees will be interested because he will be a free agent after the season.

What? To me, that says that the Yankees won't be interested. They've demonstrated that they aren't going to pay up the nose in prospects and in dollars, when they can just do one. If the Yankees want Lee, they will pursue him in the offseason. I don't see any reason to give up prospects for him now.

Also, maybe Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik isn't so great after all. The article says that they are very interested in Eduardo Nunez and have also been scouting Low-A Charleston. There isn't really anyone of value in Charleston and Nunez isn't too good. Sure, they'd want Austin Romine or Jesus Montero too, but that isn't going to happen.

These rumors don't show any actual interest from the Yankees, just that other teams are interested in dealing players to the Yanks. I'm sure that the Yankees will make a deal at some point, but they will wait until their needs are clear. Right now, they're uncertain of Nick Johnson's health, but they're not going to go out and trade for another full-time designated hitter just yet. For now, just ignore these rumors.

Written by Greg Fertel | 09 June 2010

Here's just a list of who the Yankees drafted with their first 30 picks.

Here's a bit of a breakdown:

15 RHP, 2 LHP

2 Shortstops, 1 Second Baseman

2 Catchers

4 Center Fielders, 2 Left Fielders

1 Third Baseman, 1 First Baseman

12 High Schoolers, 18 College

Written by Sean P | 08 June 2010

Since I had a dinner meeting for most night I ended up missing quite a bit of the draft. I was around early enough to catch the beginning however and had a brief conversation on the phone with my father. I was saber-douching it up about the Cubs pick, about how it’s not a coincidence that poorly run organizations draft poorly, then yammering on about how adhering to the slotting system can really screw up a team’s system etc, etc, you get the picture.

Me: “Like the guy the Cubs just picked. Totally ridiculous. No one has even heard of this guy! I mean, he’s not on anyone’s top 100!” Headshake, chortle, smirk. “You have to take the best available in a position like that. What an awful job by the Cubs! Do you see who is still available? I can’t believe it, Chicago fans must be irate!” Snicker, laugh, sigh. “I’ll tell you one thing though dad, the draft sure is shaping up nice for the Yankees so far. They’ll have a great pool to pick from”

Oops!

When I finally got home and saw the Yankees picked Cito Culver I couldn’t believe Damon Oppenheimer would show me up like that. The balls on that guy. And then I saw what the Rays did. And then I saw what the Red Sox did. I read some of the scouting reports, a few too many of which included the phrase “utility player” and got out the Glenmorangie and endeavored to carry on. I read the reviews from draft experts who expressed real surprise at this pick, even shock, because of the names still available at that point. I read Jim Callis say Cito Culver was their 160^th player on the board. Another Glenmoranige. I read that he has a Maryland commitment and I shuddered remembering how bad the baseball program is at UMD. At this point I was feeling like the father whose daughter brings home the sketchy boy with the loud mouth that’s a little too handsy in front of the family. You want to escort him to the door with the aid of a large firearm.

But then I pumped the breaks and really started to think about it. Doesn’t your daughter/baseball team usually make good choices? Isn’t she prudent about these types of things?

And after going over it some more that’s when I decided to Trust the Process.

“Trust the process” has become a kind of running joke about the inanity and general disastrous decision making of the Royals. Dayton Moore’s request to fans to trust the organization can now be applied to anything:

“BP will do a good job cleaning up all that oil, just trust the process!”

As a Yankee fan though I think many of us do trust the process. And we should. Brian Cashman since taking over has assembled a very smart team around him that has run the organization almost as well as can be expected. From 2006 on, the Yankees have done a good job drafting and developing talent and that’s why you give Cashman’s group, including Damon Oppenheimer, a good amount of rope here. That’s why I’m going to trust the process.

I’m not trying to be a homer and just blindly sign off on everything the Yankees have done. Some people will excuse the Yankees for every mistake, rationalize every questionable decision and explain away every failure. Yes, I would have preferred the Yankees to take someone else. Yes, this pick was reach. Oppenheimer says other teams were on him and that may or may not be true, but talent wise, this was a reach. It’s troubling that more than a few places have his ceiling as a utility player. And it’s troubling that with Ranaudo, Castellanos and Brentz available the Yankees took someone that it’s hard to get excited about.

Here’s why you should have some faith though, and yes, trust the process.

- The draft isn’t over. The Yankees will easily be able to spend money now to sign whoever they wish in later rounds as they’ve done before. Last year they were able to spend a good chunk of change on the likes of Graham Stoneburner, Caleb Cotham, Adam Warren and Bryan Mitchell. Just because they didn’t go all out on the first pick doesn’t mean the remaining 49 picks are meaningless.

- The Yankees tend to go big internationally. With Jesus Montero, Jose Ramirez, Manny Banuelos, former prospect Arodys Vizcaino, Gary Sanchez and Kelvin De Leon you could make a case that much of the upper tier of Yankee prospects are international signees.

- The Yankees KNOW this kid. Like, really, really know him. According to Oppenheimer, all their best scouts have seen him extensively. Culver was on their area code team and the top brass have watched him for a long time. They’ve done all the work you would expect on a first round draft pick- this wasn’t just settling for some slot, local kid- the Yankees got the man they wanted.

- It’s way too early to know how Culver will develop. It’s hard trying to peg any high school kid’s future but the reports that have him as a utility player are certainly worrisome. It’s going to take some time to tell for sure though. Derek Jeter made 77 errors over his first 2 years and had a .614 OPS in 1992, so really it’s hard to know what to expect with some picks (Am I comparing Culver to Jeter? No, not even slightly. Let’s not overreact and be insane please).

- Oppenheimer and Cashman deserve some benefit of the doubt. Like I said, this organization has been really well run over the last few years. You can be skeptical of the pick- I certainly am. But have they done anything to really warrant blatant mistrust? Not even sort of. They get the benefit of the doubt in my book and they should in yours as well.

Written by Greg Fertel | 07 June 2010

The Yankees selected Cito Culver out of a high school near Rochester, NY with their first overall pick. I'll comment more on this and other picks tomorrow, but at first glance, it seems like a reach. Culver did not make Keith Law's top 100 list and was somewhere in the 160s of Baseball America's.

I'm sure the Yankees like the kid for good reasons, but there were still bigger names and bigger talents available. I wonder if Culver was someone they could have snagged with their second round pick, which is around 80th in the draft.

Check back tomorrow for more on the Yankees' 2010 draft.