Derek Jeter's Worrisome Approach

Written by Josh W. | 11 May 2010

Josh is going to be a regular contributor to Pending Pinstripes from now on. Please give him a warm welcome, as I think he will be a great addition to the PP team. Here is his first post, which touches on Derek Jeter's odd 2010 season.

Derek Jeter has hit to the tune of a solid 107 wRC+(.336 wOBA) this season. Unfortunately, we may see this number decay unless Jeter changes his new approach.

So far this the Yankee captain has been much more aggressive, leading to lukewarm plate discipline figures and surprising batted ball profiles. He currently is swinging at 53.5% of all pitches, compared to a career average of 48.1%, and a five-year career low last year of 46%. Now, this would be fine if he was swinging more at good pitches to hit. But the numbers suggest a different story.

This year he is swinging at 33.9% of pitches thrown outside the strikezone, compared to a career average of around 20%. One might postulate that he is swinging more at first pitch fastballs that are meatballs. Well, if this were true, we would see an uptick in his wFB/C figure. Yet we see the opposite; this year, he's hitting fastballs at about half the quality he did last year.

As we are all aware, Jeter is an outstanding contact hitter. For any other hitter, these plate discipline changes would usually accompany a jump in strikeout rate. Jeter, however, is actually making contact at the highest rate of his career.

This is evidenced career low strikeout rate of around 10.2%. But as we have noted, he is making contact with bad pitches to hit. He's swinging at a lot of pitches outside the zone, and it's degrading his ability to put a charge into the ball.

There are three basic components to a players offensive skillset: power (represented by iso), plate discipline, and BABIP skill.

Power

This year, Jeter has a .156 iso, which would be a three year high. But as we discussed, this year his BABIP profile is even more groundball extreme than usual. He has a career low 18.1% FB rate so far this season.

Usually, less flyballs and less linedrives mean less power, and not more. Jeter's iso this year is propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB rate of 19%, which would also be a career high. His career rate is about 13%. This is more likely a fluke than anything else.

Plate Discipline

As we have discussed, this year Jeter is adopting a hacktastic approach. This has led to a 4.4% BB rate and a .46 BB/K ratio, both of which would be career lows.

BABIP

Another figure that would be a career low is his line drive rate of around 12%. The linedrives he hit last year, and throughout his career, are now turning into groundballs (career high of around 70%). It's pretty obvious that hitting less linedrives and more groundballs is going to accompany a drop in BABIP, which is .304 for Jeter this year, more than 5% less than that his career average! Obviously his BABIP will continue to suffer unless he returns to previous norms.

In conclusion, Jeter has managed to degrade all three components of his offensive skillset with his new approach. For all the praise Kevin Long as received for his work with Cano, Swisher, and Gardner, one has to wonder why he doesn't tell Jeter to be a little more patient.

There will be a very interesting narrative (in a very bad way) at the end of the season for the Yankee Captain if he continues this approach. If you want to view it from a positive light, a down year for Jeter would mean a less daunting contract.

Photo Credit: Jim Rogash/Getty Images