Projecting Utility Infielders

Written by Sean P | 09 March 2010

With spring training under way I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at those who have a shot (even if it's just an outside shot) at seeing time with the Yankees in 2010. Later we'll look at the potential 4th and 5th outfielders, but first, the infield. The job is really Ramiro Pena's at this minute-but are there better options right now? Here are CHONE's projections for the utility candidates in 2010:

NAME	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BRAA	FRAA	WAR
K.Russo	2B, 3B	376	.277	.332	.392	.320	-2.8	-3.6	0.8
E.Nunez	SS	404	.262	.295	.370	.291	-12.6	-17.4	-1.1
R.Corona	2B, SS	441	.248	.317	.342	.298	-11.1	-5.1	0.0
R.Pena	SS,2B,3B	357	.248	.305	.345	.299	-11.4	1.5	0.7

CHONE tends to be a little conservative but I think these paint a fair picture. This data is from each players Fangraph page where they use CHONE's offensive and defensive projections to put together a rough WAR estimate.

If Pena did loose the job it would be because Kevin Russo really did something spectacular in spring training to open a lot of eyes. That's exactly how Pena won the job after all. While I think Russo might be a better long term option than Pena as a player, I think Pena's defense and his positional utility are attractive features for his candidacy. Russo has really only played 2B and 3B in his career while Pena can play those positions in addition to SS very well. Additionally, the Yankees had Pena work out in CF when he was in Scranton which only adds to his positional value.

If anything, the CHONE projections show what a stretch it would be to imagine Eduardo Nunez in the Bronx in 2010. Despite the early performance of Nunez in spring training there is certainly little reason to get excited about him at this point.

Below are the PECOTA projections:

NAME	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	DEF	WARP
Kevin Russo	2B, 3B	337	.280	.334	.390	.246	+5	1.2
E. Nunez	SS	434	.271	.306	.371	.230	-9	-0.8
R.Corona	2B, SS	506	.252	.336	.357	.253	-5	0.1
Ramiro Pena	SS,2B,3B	289	.253	.314	.351	.228	+3	.4

PECOTA is a little funky right now and seems to be having problems with multi-year projections but they tell us current season numbers are OK....I'm not sure if I'm buying that though. I also prefer the numbers listed at Fangraphs to the ones Baseball Prospectus offers. TAv is formerly EQA, which is basically a measure of offensive value per out expressed in batting average form (.260 is average, .300 is very good). It's adjusted for park, league and team pitching as well as base running. Their DEF numbers are somewhat of a mystery, although we know they are compiled using play by play data. Their WARP is supposedly based on the same sort of formula as fangraphs WAR but as their methodology is about as transparent as the Communist Party of China's, I can't really endorse them at all either. PECOTA does offer projections for almost all the players in any organization though and their projections are usually decent enough.

They seem to be a bit higher on Kevin Russo than CHONE is. If you believe in PECOTA's defensive numbers than Russo would be a better overall option than Pena- but again, I don't think thats the case. Its interesting that PECOTA sees Pena as the WORST offensive utility option out of the group for this year- while I never would claim Pena is an offensive asset, I'm not sure I would expect Corona or Nunez to have a better MLB season than Pena at this point.

What I think it comes down to is Pena's defensive versatility compared to the field. Nunez and Corona could see time with the team in September or earlier if an injury occurs but I would be hesitant to start the year with them in New York. I also think Russo could benefit from some more seasoning at AAA as he has only played one full season there- he has plenty of room to improve defensively.Right now though I think Ramiro Pena is the best option for utility infielder.