How Good is Francisco Cervelli?

Written by Josh W. | 06 June 2010

Cervelli started the season on fire, posting a .390 wOBA in March/April. By May 18th he had even improved his wOBA to .439. Unfortunately, this was mainly on the strength of an other-wordly BABIP, meaning that he was due for a statistical correction. He ended up posting a .340 wOBA in May and has a paltry .209 wOBA so far in June. Right now his wOBA stands at .333, good enough for 6% above league average. But is this his true talent level?

He had shown good plate discipline in the minors, but nothing that would indicate he was capable of a major league .82 BB/K ratio (along with an above-average walk rate). Thankfully, his plate discipline numbers are excellent. He does not chase out of the zone often (17.8%, 27.9% is average), he makes contact (85.2%, 81.1% is average), and he doesn't swing often in general (39.7%, 44.9% is average). These are excellent numbers and portray sustainability. However, BB/K stablizes around 200 PA's, so it is possible (and perhaps likely) Cervelli regresses a little further.

Cervelli does not have a lot of pop, so unfortunately a low iso seems here to stay. In the minors he posted iso figures typically in the .100-.125 range. Given how low his iso currently is, it's possible his iso creeps up little as he gets more experience, but in all likelihood he will never hit for even average power.

His BABIP of .330 is also due for regression. He showcased good BABIP skill in the minors, but his batted ball profile does not indicate anything special. His line drive rate is low (15.5% this season, 17.6% career) and he's not immune to the pop-up either. He hasn't played enough for his batted ball profile to stablize, but right now he doesn't look like anything more than a league average BABIP player.

He currently has a .333 wOBA, a far cry from the .439 wOBA he had earlier. Yet he appears to be in line for additional regression, given his high BABIP and that his BB/K ratio is unprecedented. His true talent level is probably around a .310-.320 wOBA. Over a fullseason, this would mean he would be about 5-9 runs below average. Thankfully, catchers that can hit are pretty rare, so the positional adjustment for catchers is rather large (+12.5 runs per 162 games played). A below average bat, combined with a nice positional adjustment and good defense makes him around a 2.5 WAR player (slightly above average).