Yanks on Verge of Dealing for Cliff Lee, But Why?

Written by Greg Fertel | 09 July 2010

Well first off, I'd like to apologize for the lack of posting over the past few weeks, but it will pick up shortly. I was a bit out of the loop and was just informed that the Yankees are close to dealing for Cliff Lee. The alleged package that they are giving up is Jesus Montero, David Adams, and a third prospect. Mike Axisa at RAB speculates that the Yankees could also be getting a Brandon League back in the deal, but that's just speculation.

Even if League was included, I would still not be a fan of the deal. He is, after all, just a reliever. I voiced my opinion on a potential Lee deal exactly one month ago.

They've demonstrated that they aren't going to pay up the nose in prospects and in dollars, when they can just do one. If the Yankees want Lee, they will pursue him in the offseason. I don't see any reason to give up prospects for him now.

Later in the post, I said:

Sure, they'd want Austin Romine or Jesus Montero too, but that isn't going to happen.

It really looks like I was totally wrong(not surprising), but I'll still be very unhappy about this deal if it happens. The reasons are simple, and are simply expressed by Beyond the Box Score's Trade Value Calculator.

If I am extremely optimistic with Lee and say he will continue his pace and net 4 WAR in the second half of the season and count the potential draft picks for an extra $5 million, his net value would be $18.7 million.

According to Victor Wang's research, a top ten hitting prospect averages $36.7 million in surplus value. Add in two more prospects, and you can see that the Mariners will be getting the better end of the deal. Plus, the Yankees already have five suitable starters, and I honestly am not sure how much this increases their World Series odds. I assume the number isn't as big as you would think by adding another ace.

I won't mind seeing Lee pitch for the Yankees, but I think this is an unnecessary bet, when the Yankees would have been able to sign Lee in the offseason. This doesn't feel like Cashman's M.O., but I guess he really wants to add Lee.

If the Yankees don't win the World Series this season, this trade was absolutely worthless. Figure that the Yanks can't have much more than 40-50% odds of winning the Series, and I think it is a very silly trade. Bad move, Cash.