How Much Would Dan Haren Cost?

Written by Josh W. | 23 July 2010

Recently the Yankees just missed out on acquiring Cliff Lee. It seems now they are looking to trade for a different top starter; Dan Haren.

A cursory glance at Haren's numbers would indicate a mediocre starter; a losing record and 4.60 ERA aren't exactly synonymous with success. But don't be fooled by such specious figures. Haren has been excellent this year, just as he has since 2005. He's fifth in the NL in xFIP at 3.39, just behind Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay,Adam Wainright, and Tim Lincecum.

Haren has been remarkably consisntent his entire career. He's been at least a 4 WAR pitcher every year since 2005, and he's topped 6 WAR the past two years. Whatever team acquires Haren (if any does) will have a much improved rotation.

He's also signed to a very favorable contract. He's making just 8.25 mil this year, and will make 12.75 mill in 2011 and 2012. He has an option for 15.5 mil in 2013. Assuming he would produce 2 more WAR (this season) for whatever team acquired him (perhaps a tad generous), and a .5 WAR decline every year afterward, and he would create 12.5 WARs through 2013. If each WAR will cost 4.5 mil in the free agent market during that time span, than Haren will be worth 56.25 million, but will get paid 45.125 million. If he performs at this assumed pace, he will also likely be a type-A free agent, in which case we can add 5 mil to his total value of 16.125 million.

For comparison, Cliff Lee projected at the time of his trade for about 18.7 mil in surplus value. Thanks to Victor Wang's research, we know that Haren's surplus value would be about equivalent to a package including a top 51-75 hitting prospect and and grade C pitching prospect (John Sickel's rankings). This would probably be a package of Austin Romine and Romulo Sanchez (or Mark Melancon depending on how much you think he has slipped).

It's doubtful the Diamondbacks would accept such a package. They have set the asking price at "high quality major league pitching." It's anyone's guess as to what exactly the Diamonbacks want, but I doubt they would accept Ivan Nova or a similar prospect has high quality major league pitching. This probably means that Joba would be likely included in the talks between the two teams (make no mistake, young pitchers with good stuff are a highly valued commodity).

Now, as I have discussed, The Yankees are already a 100 win team that has an excellent chance at making the postseason. For the regular season, Haren is not necessary.

Yet the Yankees clearly feel that they should acquire a top of the rotation starter to help them in the playoffs. It's very hard to put an exact number on how much Haren would help in the postseason. The Yankees clearly value winning the World Series NOW, and any assesment of Haren's value is incomplete without including his probable postseason value. If the Yankees do acquire Haren, I will attempt to address his postseason value in a later post.