Keith Law's and MLB's Prospect lists

Written by Sean P | 28 January 2010

Two big prospect lists came out in the last 24 hours, one from MLB.com’s Jon Mayo and the other from ESPN’s Keith Law.

Mayo’s which dropped last night on an underwhelming MLB Network show, just has a top 50 list and it was a little surprising to Yankee fans. Jesus Montero was at #19, which is by far the lowest anyone has ranked him thus far. As Yankee fans voiced their indignation on twitter, Mayo responded to his critics:

Obviously, I'm a Yankee hater. Either that, or the scouts I talk to think he's a DH waiting to happen. You decide.

Well okay then. The problem with Mayo’s list is that he just polls 20 or so scouts and compiles the rankings that way. I guess its certainly one way to go, but sometimes you get weird results. Case in point. Mayo’s own scouting report had this to say about Montero:

It would be difficult to find someone with anything critical to say about Montero's bat. He's going to hit for plenty of average and he's got perhaps as much raw power as anyone in the Minors; he's just starting to tap into it. He's got great pitch recognition and bat control. The question with Montero has always been about his defense. He's big for a catcher and isn't all that agile. That being said, he's worked very hard on his craft behind the plate and showed improvement, particularly in throwing out runners, over the course of last season.

Again, nothing is said there that stands apart from any other scouting report we’ve heard all year long. However he’s ranked about at least 9 spots lower than any other list. So obviously the whole “he’s a DH waiting to happen” excuse does not hold much water upon further evaluation. But Mayo’s list is really second billing compared to Keith Laws which dropped earlier today.

Keith Law came out with his coveted top 100 prospect list for ESPN, and as it is Insider protected, I’ll just try to summarize his main points. Two Yankees made the list, along with some former friends.

Jesus Montero-10

Montero has made improvements defensively but many evaluators outside of the organization still do not think he’ll be a catcher long term. Montero’s bat will play anywhere though, as his style is comparable with Frank Thomas. He hits off his front leg, but his strength and quick hands give him the ability to drive the ball anywhere without losing power. The Yankees might be wise to try him as a DH sooner rather than later.

Manny Banuelos-96

Banuelos is interchangeable with Zach McAllister but got the nod based on his youth and potential to add more velocity to his fastball. The fastball which sits low 90s and the change up are solid-average pitches with the curveball being his weakest offering. It has little depth to it, but Banuelos has good arm speed which should lead to an improved offering or a solid slider/cutter. His youth and advanced feel for pitching gives him a good chance to reach his ceiling of a 3-5 starter.

Law’s evaluation and ranking philosophy was the subject of a terrific article on Beyond the Boxscore this morning. He’s definitely more willing to trust his own scouting reports along with tools and upside ahead of just performance in ranking players. It’s pretty evident once you see his top 10 Yankees ranking-

1. Jesus Montero, C

2. Manny Banuelos, LHP

3. Zach McAllister, RHP

4. Austin Romine, C

5. Slade Heathcott, CF

6. Jose Ramirez, RHP

7. Gary Sanchez, C

8. Andrew Brackman, RHP

9. David Adams, 2B

10. JR Murphy, C

Brackman at #8 is pretty surprising although its within keeping of Law’s preference to trust scouting reports over results to a certain degree. The biggest eye opener is Jose Ramirez at #6, who we have made no secret of liking here at Pending Pinstripes. The concentration of catching depth is also glaring as JR Murphy just makes it at #10, a ranking which I particularly like.

I think Law’s ranking is within the assessment of the overall system right now. The organization is lacking top tier talent after loosing Arodys Vizcaino (#43) and Austin Jackson (#70). However there are a lot of intriguing players in the lower levels who are a breakout season away from landing squarely on the national recognition level. It’s another reason to closely follow Yankee prospects in 2010.

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Finally, a troubling note about that Brandon Laird dustup in Arizona a few weeks ago comes from the Arizona Republic. Apparently the fight started in the Phoenix Sun’s lounge when Gerald Laird's 70-year-old grandfather “inappropriately” touched Celtic’s guards Eddie House’s wife. At this point, Brandon got involved and then, “shouted derogatory remarks toward House and other women at the lounge before taking a swing at one of the women.”

Well that's troubling. The whole incident is beyond bizarre, with the Laird’s father, grandfather and uncle all in the mix. They were also apparently almost denied entrance because they all seemed extremely drunk before entering the arena.

The legal repercussions seem light, as Brandon is just charged with suspicion of a misdemeanor and disorderly conduct. But the whole thing is thoroughly weird as well as alarming.