Adam Warren, RHP: Prospect Profile No. 13

Written by Greg Fertel | 25 January 2010

Adam Warren was selected by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. While
many Yankees' draftees tend to hold out for extra money, Warren signed very quickly for $195,000 and it worked out just fine for him.

The Yankees drafted Warren out of the storied University of North Carolina, where he was a starting pitcher for his last three college seasons. He put together a nice 22-2 record there and ran up a ton of accolades.

It wasn't just Warren's pitching prowess that drew attention, it was the whole package. He was named to the All-ACC Academic Team and the ACC Academic honor roll. He was also named an outstanding student and placed on an All-District Academic team by ESPN The Magazine multiple times. UNC is a very competitive school, so color me impressed here.

In Warren's senior season, he was nominated for the Lowe's senior class award, which is a real honor. This award is based on how the student performs in the classroom, the community, how he competes, and his character. He didn't win, but being considered is a pretty big deal itself for a senior college athlete.

Okay, now back to Adam Warren the baseball player. He really seemed to break out in his senior year, posting the lowest walk rate of his college career and striking out over a batter per inning. He took that a step further as he got to Staten Island.

Those are some impressive numbers right there. After never having posted a BB/9 below 3.6 in college, Warren cut that number down significantly to 1.6 as a professional. I got to ask him some questions earlier this offseason, and he addressed this change:

"It was definitely a change in approach. Last year, I would describe myself as tentative and therefore it led to a lot more walks because I was trying to be so fine with my pitches. I came into this year with this mindset that I was going to make hitters beat me instead of giving them free passes. I believe this change in approach really allowed me to get ahead of hitters and use all of my pitches effectively."

It would have been nice to see his strikeout rate remain above one per inning, but it is very tough to argue with a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.00. That wasn't the only positive sign from Warren's time in Staten Island. An astonishing 70 percent of balls in play against Warren were hit on the ground. As a pitcher, the best things you can do are get ground balls, strike guys out, and not walk anyone. Warren did as well as anyone could in that respect.

This isn't just a random fluke. Warren goes out there intending to get ground balls, and he has thus far been successful.

"I would have to attribute my ground ball rate mainly to my two seamer and changeup. I worked hard to throw my two seamer to both sides of the plate, especially when I was behind in the count. My pitching coach this summer, Pat Daneker, really helped me to solidify my mechanics which helped to get more movement on that pitch. I have always tried and for the most part been successful at being a low ball pitcher and I think that may have played a role in getting a lot of ground balls."

The most intriguing thing about Warren is how much his velocity has increased over the past year. In his junior season, he mostly sat 89-91. As a right handed pitcher, that isn't going to get you far in a farm system like the Yankees'. Then, as his senior year progressed, Warren steadily added velocity, crediting good mechanics and an increase in arm strength. Towards the end of the season, he was sitting 93-94 and occasionally touching 96 with good command. A fastball like that can take a pitcher a long way. This increased fastball velocity helped Warren mentally too, allowing him to "gain confidence and not have to be as fine."

There's no doubt that Warren's fastball is his primary weapon, but he has some decent secondary offerings too. His changeup hasn't developed into much of a strikeout pitch yet, but he commands it well and keeps it in the bottom of the strike zone. His curveball is probably his best strikeout pitch at this point, but isn't consistent. Sometimes he gets great break with it, but other times he doesn't. Same deal with his slider.

There are plenty of questions surrounding Warren as we head towards the 2010 season. What will his velocity be like? Will he need half a season to return to the 93-94 level or will he be able to get his fastball up there quickly? Will he be able to develop one of his breaking pitches into a true out pitch with good command?

My expectations from Warren are a bit tempered because of these questions, but there is some real upside here. A starting pitcher with stamina(154.2 IP in '09), plus command of his fastball and plus velocity who gets ground balls is the type of pitcher any team would love to have. I need quite a bit more than 56.2 professional innings to form a complete opinion on a prospect, but I really like what I've seen(and heard) from Warren so far. He should start 2010 in Tampa and the organization consistently talks about how fast Warren could move through the system.

Picture from Danny Wild/MLB.com