Should the Yankees Miss Austin Jackson Already?

Written by Greg Fertel | 23 April 2010

Player A: .308/.375/.431 with a 3.1 UZR and .8 WAR

Player B: .283/.356/.509 with a 1.4 UZR and .7 WAR

In case you hadn't guessed, Player A is Austin Jackson and Player B is Curtis Granderson.

Jackson has gotten off to a phenomenal start for the Detroit Tigers, one that no one really could have predicted. However, Jackson's flaws from last season have not gone away at all. His ISO is just .123(.105 in 2009), and he has struck out in a whopping 36.9 percent(24.4 in 2009) of his plate appearances. In fact, he has struck out in every game that he has started this season.

I am not going to check this, but I can pretty much guarantee that no hitter has ever maintained a batting average over .300 while striking out so frequently. Jackson's 2009 Triple-A BABIP was lofty, sitting at .384 for the season. This was one of the reasons I frequently said he was a bit overrated and not major league ready.

If you thought his BABIP in 2009 was a bit flukey, what about his current 2010 rate? On the season, his batting average on balls in play is .488! That is just nowhere near sustainable. To be fair, Jackson has been tearing the cover off the ball, he has hit line drives in 32.5 percent of his balls in play. Both his BABIP and line drive rate are sure to drop, and when they do, his batting line will not look anywhere near as nice as it does now.

For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Jackson to hit .252/.305/.350 and I would be surprised if he did much better than that. Jackson is a good prospect, but I don't think he should be playing every day for a major league team, and given his hot start, he's likely to be a letdown for Tigers fans as the season progresses.

On the defensive side of the ball, Jackson's numbers are impressive. John Dewan's +/- says he has saved four runs already, and his UZR is 3.1. The sample size here is so small it has no predictive value, so I'm still not sure Jackson is much more than an average defensive center fielder.

Looking at the base statistics, Jackson has been comparable to Granderson. This may lead some to believe the Granderson acquisition was unnecessary, but I would definitely disagree. Granderson is a far superior player to Jackson, and hits for more power than Jackson ever will. Jackson can go on to make the Yankees miss him, but trust me, it won't be this season.