Do Not Pinch Hit for Nick Johnson

Written by Greg Fertel | 24 April 2010

Last night, the Yankees trailed by two runs to start the ninth inning. The Angels' left-handed closer Brian Fuentes entered the game with Nick Johnson due up. Joe Girardi decided to take Johnson out of the game in favor of Marcus Thames.

This is a clear OBP for power swap. But in this case, that was a very questionable decision. While Thames hits lefties with a ton of power, his career on-base percentage against them is just .332. Nick Johnson, a lefty, holds a career OBP of .423 against LHPs. Now, there are times in a game where the swap of OBP for power could be made, but this is not one of them.

Down two runs in the ninth inning, a walk and a home run do not differ very much in value. Using this win expectancy calculator, we can see just how much they differ. Entering the inning, the Angels win expectancy was 94.5 percent.

In this instance, a walk brings their win expectancy down to 87.7 percent. A home run is worth only a tiny bit more, and lowers it to 86.6 percent. This makes it an indefensible position. There is no reasonable need or possible explanation on why you substitute on-base ability for power in that situation. A walk and a home run are nearly identical in value here.

As an individual play, it may not be the biggest deal in the world, but it is a bit worrisome to me. The decision to bring in Thames in this situation shows that Girardi is willing to pinch hit for the third best hitter in the Yankees lineup. Not only that, but Johnson also happens to be extremely adept at getting on base, which is just what the Yankees needed to start the ninth inning off last night.

Photo Credit: AP