Written by Greg Fertel | 21 September 2009

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Tucked away in a Ken Rosenthal article about a month ago was a bit of Yankee news that's stuck with me (Kudos to anyone who can successfully locate said article). Rosenthal asserts that the Yankees, who have been pleasantly surprised by their outfield production this season, are content to have Austin Jackson repeat AAA in 2010.

This may be fairly alarming to some who have been calling for Jackson's ascendancy for most of the season. But as Greg has detailed, maybe a few thousand times, Austin Jackson really hasn't had the dynamite season deserving of a call up. This is also likely an indication that the Yankees are ready to give Brett Cabrera, or Melky Gardner if you will, another season in CF.

Any reason to be alarmed here? Probably not. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner have combined to give the Yankees 3.5 WAR this season in CF. Only 4 other American league CF's have amassed 3.5 WAR so far this season. And who's to say that if Brett Gardner hadn't gotten injured they'd be well past 3.5 WAR by now?

Greg may have mentioned, once or three thousand times, about the merits of Brett Gardner and all joking aside, he's absolutely right. Brett Gardner is the most viable CF option in the short term for the Yankees. At every level in his career Gardner has shown marked improvement after 200 AB's or so. He's currently at .283/.355/.406. That's above average for a CF folks, and we're not even counting defense. His BABIP is right in line with where it's been throughout his entire career. But Greg has already spilt several gallons of ink applauding the merits of Gardner's ability, so our question is this- can we expect Austin Jackson to outperform this level of production from Brett Gardner next year?

The short answer is no.

Austin Jackson hit .300/.356/.405 in AAA. Taking a closer look though uncovers some problems. For one, Jackson's BB% declined for the 2^rd straight year and his SLG% saw its 3^rd straight dip. The BABIP was 30 points above his minor league career average (.389 compared to .361) and the K's were a problem, again (24% of plate appearances). Jackson hit 4 homeruns all season in 517 AAA at bats. In 2008 Brett Gardner had 3 homeruns in just 343.

Now is this to say that Austin Jackson isn't going to be better in 2010? Absolutely not. I certainly think he will be. Jackson has been rushed along the Yankee ladder- he saw 4 different levels in 2007 alone and was one of the youngest AAA players this season, just 22 yrs old.

But what I will say is that I think its unlikely Austin Jackson can contribute more at the major league level in 2010 than Brett Gardner can.

Of course that's not to say that Austin Jackson has no future in New York. He may show the Yankees something special in spring training that makes him impossible to send down. However Jackson remains a raw, young baseball player that needs to develop further, and that means consistent at bats. Starting him in AAA is the best bet for the Yankees in 2010.

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