Sean Smith Projections

Written by Sean P. | 15 November 2009

Name	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R150	0.349	0.427	6
Melky Cabrera	12	11	0.284	0.349	0.427	6
Brett Gardner	3	28	0.267	0.353	0.38	-1
Kevin Russo	5	8	0.276	0.331	0.396	-5
Austin Jackson	5	15	0.253	0.311	0.37	-15
Shelly Duncan	24	3	0.257	0.34	0.512	16
Reegie Corona	4	14	0.247	0.308	0.345	-20
Ramiro Pena	3	7	0.251	0.309	0.35	-21
Francisco Cervelli	3	1	0.256	0.307	0.366	-15
Hideki Matsui	19	1	0.266	0.357	0.452	13
Johnny Damon	17	16	0.268	0.355	0.43	8
Jose Molina	3	0	0.223	0.281	0.312	-34

These are the projections that Sean Smith has put out for his site baseballprojection.com. To see the entire Yankee team, click through to his page. I added HRs and SBs just for kicks really but since each player has a projected amount of ABs they really don't mean much. R150 for anyone who was wondering can be explained as:

"The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in"

Here are my quick thoughts:

-The Shelly Duncan projection is pretty nutty. The way projection systems work can be lead to big misses like that sometimes but I wouldn't seriously expect anywhere near that kind of production from Shelly.

- When you take Gardners defensive advantage over Melky's you have two similarly valuable players. I still like Gardner though.

- As high as Bill James was on Austin Jackson, Sean Smith I think comes a little closer to reality.

-Matsui's and Damon's numbers are pretty similar. Considering Damon at least has (some) utility as an outfielder I think this is a pretty clear wash as well. I'd say both of those projections are fair, however you'll probably see a slightly better performance from each playing in Yankee stadium.

- I wouldn't have thought Kevin Russo would project to hit that well for the Yankees next year. Obviously that projection isn't stunning, but it is interesting that its much better than Cervelli's and Pena's projections.

- The difference between Molina and Francisco Cervelli is hard to figure out because catching defense is a huge part of their values. I think everyone is in agreement though that Cervelli is the better choice for backing up Posada in 2010.

Let's hear what you think.