My Rambling, Winding, Joba Chamberlain Meta Post

Written by Sean P. | 22 November 2009

I had a thought that kind of evolved a few days ago and I thought I might share it here.  I warn you before venturing further, that the following is not quite a polemical dissertation on the Joba Chamberlain debate, but on the other hand it may require a winding and obtuse journey to connect the words to ideas.

This whole disastrous idea started with The Split.

The baseball community has split. The split has redefined the boundaries of debate among baseball fans; it’s as much about how things should be measured as well as how things should be run. It’s changed not only the way we talk about the game but even how we assign value to baseball events. It’s eviscerated things that were once safe, the notion of bunting for example and the sanctity of RBIs. The split has engendered a progressive reexamining of managerial decisions, front office decisions and even player decisions. It has touched every team in this league, and try as some might to avoid it (I’m looking at you Dayton Moore) one would have to be delusional to claim it does not exist. Blame it on Moneyball, blame it on the internet, blame it on math but the effect is undeniable. You can take one side or the other but this fault down the fabric of the game is very real. This week for example sports writers ignored pitching wins and used other measurements to determine Zack Grienke was the best AL pitcher but then reacted in tepid horror when two writers did the exact same thing when voting for the NL Cy Young.

Confusing?

Of course it is. The game is transitioning into something new and I think right now we’re somewhere in the middle of that switch. So some scoff and roll their eyes when they hear about FIPs and WARs but increasingly, more and more nod their heads knowingly or smile in agreement. Each club has moved with their own pace through this transition. Some like the Red Sox and Athletics started a few years ago. Others like the Royals and Astros have yet to start at all.

The Yankees in my opinion are in the middle of their transition.

Think about it. Would this conversation about Joba Chamberlain even be an issue, say, 5 years ago? Of course not. He would have never made it out of the bullpen. When Brian Cashman was given free reign with this team marked the starting point and I guess that would be around 2006 or so. That's when the drafts started to change and the out of control contracts along with the prolific spending started to slow down (hard to believe, but true). The minor leagues started to be seen as source of potential talent not just as bargaining ploys to land the shiniest new talents (seen our bullpen lately?).  And now you hear Brian Cashman talking on the WFAN about not overvaluing small sample sizes and the hesitancy to give long term contracts to the freshest and most covetable free agents. The decision to not trade for Johan Santana was the seminal moment that could be looked upon as the biggest symbol of that change.

And things are certainly changing.

Which brings us back to Joba. Because as much as the front office and the way the team has been run may have changed, a large segment of the fan base, for better or worse, has not changed with them. Yet. The confrontation of those inundated with the progressive movement of this team and baseball as a whole runs into conflict with those who are behind it. And where that confrontation takes place is Joba Chamberlain.

Fans outside of the change like what they saw in 07, the hard throwing, fist pumping, snorting young bull that wants to display his dominance and blow people away in the late innings of ball games. They take what they know, and what they know is that Joba HAS done well in the bullpen so why move him at all? The way the Yankees have handled him in their opinion has had Joba resembling Ferdinand instead of some mythical Hemingway creation- Joba’s looked timid and tame, he has no fire and determination as a starting pitcher. These fans look to heroes of the past, the Whitey Fords the Ron Guidrys and say,

“If Joba’s truly a starter, how come he can’t do that now? Why can’t he throw 200 innings, win 20+ games, strike out 200 batters?”

And then they say, well surely if he cannot do that, then he’s not a starter- and we’ve SEEN him in the bullpen! It just looks right!”

The fans on board with this progressive baseball vision see Joba in an entirely different fashion. They see the utility in evolving Joba’s role over time; in carefully monitoring his innings and how much he pitches in order to one day give him the chance to do all those wonderful things we Yankee fans expect of our starting pitchers. These new Yankee fans preach patience- they have numbers and statistics and graphs and their message is wait and see. Give him the best odds to succeed.

It’s probably no secret where we stand on this blog in terms of the debate (the last I heard from Greg in fact, he was fortified on the lawn of Keith Law, armed to the teeth, vowing to brutally cut down and slaughter any approaching St. Louis fans that would do his liege harm). While the readers of this blog, along with its writers, might easily assume a majority of people are on board with this progression by taking stock of the collective internet opinion, it’s probably safer to say the split is closer to 40/60 AGAINST the progression. However as our biases are well known here at Pending Pinstripes, I thought I would share a few points on the whole Joba Chamberlain debate that I’ve been musing about for quite awhile, and why we shouldn’t rush to label him either way right now.

1. Joba Chamberlain is bereft of experience. Simply put, Chamberlain as a robust 24 year old has only 362 professional innings pitched. About 300 or so as an SP and the rest in relief. How does that stack up with other wunderkinds? Jon Lester the 25 year old has thrown 1041 professional innings; the 25 year old Zack Grienke 1173 professional innings (and some sort of mental disaster or other). The 26 year old Justin Verlander had 958 professional innings, the 23 year old Felix Hernandez 1211 professional innings; Roy Halladay at 24 had 974 professional innings. Even Josh Beckett had 646 professional innings at 24. The difference? Only Justin Verlander went to college as Joba did. But Cornhusker baseball is certainly not professional baseball, and not ONE of these guys spent only one year in the minors as Joba did. Obviously it makes sense to be patient and nurture these guys along, no question about that. Did some of them struggle with injuries? Sure, they did, just like Joba. But have any of them been held to more expectations than Joba has with the same amount of innings? I think not, and we of course are reminded of that by the media denizens and hyperbolic TV personalities. But oh well, C’est La Vie. Now there are some extenuating circumstances here and I personally would never portend that Joba will turn into a Roy Halladay or Zack Grienke. But is that POSSIBLE for Joba? Why yes of course it is. Pitchers rarely land in the big leagues at such a young age and run into meteoric success. We need to recognize that he is a work in progress and allow him time to learn his craft. Nothing has been decided or needs to be at this point.

2. Joba did not in any way hurt the Yankees this year. He just didn’t. The Yankees bashed their way over 100 victories and a World Series title. While Joba certainly did not have the type of year that many hoped for, there was still value there. Don’t get me wrong, he was terrifyingly bad and in no way would I call 2009 an acceptable performance for one of his talents.  Joba was a 1.5 WAR player in 09. We all like numbers here, so we can affirm that he did provide some value for us. Here’s some similar 09 performers- Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez both had 1.8 WAR seasons- so too did Freddie Garcia. So lets call it what it was- a bad year. He had a 4.82 FIP, a 5.63 tRA and a 94 ERA+. That's all below average.

K/9

ERA

BB/9

That’s frustrating to see from someone like Joba, no question. But it wasn’t a DISASTEROUS year. There were some good starts. Plenty more bad or just below average ones, but this wasn’t the cataclysmic mega-disaster that you might read about in the Post or Daily News. Maybe a disaster on the level of the Andrea Doria rather than the Titanic. Something like that I guess.

3. The Yankees intentions to keep his arm protected were noble, but the way in which they tried to do so were agonizingly confusing. There’s some Kantian lesson to be drawn from all this surely, but in our effort to keep our conversation grounded in baseball, let’s ignore the wider tones of this point. How much did these chutzpa schemes from the Yankees harm young Mr. Chamberlain? Impossible to say. We cannot measure it with a tidy number and this is where we trend into speculation and humanism and the breakdown of everything measureable.  Because we cannot measure doesn’t mean it’s not there but like high energy particles and their relation to vacuum energy it’s still a factor, worthy of talking about. A million factors could be in play here. Maybe Joba’s anxious about how he is in starts because he realizes the scrutiny he’s under. Maybe he’s trying to work to hitters differently when he starts, or maybe he just flat out doesn’t like Jorge Posada (the man pees on his hands afterall). Maybe Joba’s been hurt since that arm injury last year or maybe he has an injury he hasn’t disclosed to the Yankees this year. Maybe before he starts he’s down on 3^rd avenue drinking a half gallon of Wild Turkey with the Vietnam Vet outside the Rite Aid. I’m not sure. But the situation is certainly difficult enough where one can imagine at least some portion of his troubles can be attributed toward how he’s been handled. No, we can’t put a number on it or any sort of exact measurement, but its there.

There are other points surely to be made and to keep in mind but I think these 3 are the ones I feel most strongly about. Over reaction is easy- jumping to conclusions is even fun. But I think we’d be ill advised to do so in this situation because there is just so much we do not know. No one is pleased with how Joba pitched last year and no one is satisfied with that performance- I think one thing EVERYONE agrees upon is that they expect better. I just hope everyone can appreciate the uniqueness of this situation and the factors involved and try to taper the haste to label Joba one way or the other.

Thanks for bearing with me.

One more fun graph for the road.