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Has Jeter Lost His Swing?
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A Pitch F/X Look at Cliff Lee
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Yankees and...Crawford?
12.03.10
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30 May 2009
We've covered some prospects who may fall for the Yankees at 29 and now I think we should look at some guys pegged to go in the later rounds more likely to be avaiable on draft day. Part of the difficulty with projecting the Yankees pick as I've stated before is that so much of their decision depends on who slips due to signability concerns or bonus demands. So while all the names mentioned before can be considered possibilities, they MAY be less likely to be around late on draft day(astute fans will remember though that last year the Yankees drafted such a guy, Gerrit Cole, who was projected as a top 10 pick). We'll go position by position and give you the shakedown of who has a decent shot to be there at 29.
Catchers
Tony Sanchez- Boston College
Rundown-The debate among who will be the first catcher taken on draft day is still up in the air and Sanchez may or may not be that guy but he'll most likely be the first college catcher taken. The Boston College backstop has good defensive mechanics with a quick release and good arm accuracy down to second. He's a decent hitter and has average power that is most likely to stay that way and isn't as slow as you'd expect on the bases. His swing is pretty fundamental and has a nice short stroke that produces plenty of line drives. He's had to work hard to get into shape however and conditioning concerns might be a factor with some teams. Sanchez is a solid well rounded catcher who doesn't wow you with any one thing, but has all the tools to be an extremely valuable pick and prudent choice for anyone seeking a seasoned college catcher.
Availability- I have no idea where he will go right now and I don't think anyone really does. I came close to leaving him off as it seems more and more likely he'll go before the Yankees are up but we just don't know. He's all over the place on draft boards and mock drafts because the debate over the best catcher in the draft is not a clear cut one. He's shown up in 1 or 2 top 10's but mostly falls to later in the draft. He's been a late riser though so there is a very real possibility he'll go higher than many expect right now. So depending on how teams feel about Wil Myers or Max Stassi there's a still a very real chance he'll be around at 29.
Max Stassi- CA High School
Rundown-Stassi is probably the first or second best HS catcher available and he has all the tools that translate into a quality major league backstop. A shoulder injury hindered him earlier this season but he's bounced back well and impressed scouts for most of the spring. He has a good quick swing but will be more of a doubles hitter than a true long baller. He still has some rawness with pitch selection but most seem unconcerned and write it off as HS inexperience. Defensively he's got solid footwork and has a good release but his arm isn't really inspiring. As an extremely well built, stocky 5'11" 205 pounder, he should be able to stay behind the plate. Stassi is another well rounded prospect without really any one stand out ability. His character and work ethic have also been noted in many scouting reports and he has some big league "bloodlines" as they like to say. As far as prep catchers go, he's extremely talented and developed.
Availability- Stassi has been around the bottom half of the first round for a few weeks now although he trends closer toward 20 than 32. A well rounded prep catcher is rare and it may be difficult for teams to pass on him. He has a lot of draft value for his age and all his make up so I'm not sold on him being around at 29.
Luke Bailey-GA High School
Rundown- Bailey has a great bat for a HS kid, showing a quick swing that demonstrates plus power and good contact skills. He's not a flashy great defender but receives the ball extremely well and has a great arm and quick release speed. He's got a good frame and physical makeup and scouts think he can stay behind the plate long term. The question with Bailey is his elbow- he had Tommy John surgery in May and anyone who drafts him will have to assume he can come back and maintain his arm strength. His hitting, power upside and ability to stay behind the plate make him an extremely attractive draft prospect.
Availability- Bailey before the injury was a sure fire first rounder but now things are less clear. A team picking him in the first round would have to be pretty confident that the Tommy John surgery would not impede his catching ability. Since most of his defensive talent behind the plate is linked to his arm strength, it may be quite a leap of faith for a team to make. I'm fairly confident Bailey will be available at 29 but again, can't be positive. The way this draft is too much is in flux to be certain about anything.
Tommy Joseph-AZ High School
Rundown- Joseph is a pure hitter. While Stassi, Sanchez and to a lesser extend Bailey are well rounded catchers, Joseph is nothing of the sort. There are all sorts of questions about his defensive ability or even his ability to stay behind the plate in the future but his hitting ability is unquestioned. He can spray the ball to all fields and hits moon shots when he pulls the ball. He's a big muscular guy but very slow and definitely will clog up bases. Defensively he's only caught for his senior year and although he has an impressive arm, his footwork and reactions behind the plate leave many thinking he'll move off catcher in the future. Any team going after him would have to think he has a fair shot to remain behind the plate although the way he hits he could really play anywhere.
Availability- The earliest I've seen him is the last pick or two of the first round, but that's been changing. He's moved up as scouts get a better look at him but I would be pretty certain he would be available if the Yankees wanted to take him at 29 (Not that I think they'll do so). It's more likely he's an early supplemental round pick or even an early second round pick. His bat is certainly something everyone will love but the defensive woes bring up a lot of questions.
Others of Note
Wil Myers, another prep catcher, has the eye popping bat but also just started catching (former 3rd baseman). Teams feel more confident about his ability to catch though and he's been pegged as likely to go fairly high in the draft, 10-20. Josh Phegley from Indiana also has great hitting ability but doesn't really impressive many with his swing and also has enough defensive questions to raise serious doubts as to his first round value. Austin Maddox (FL High School) also impresses many with his prodigious power and terrific arm strength. He'll have a tough time with his size staying behind the plate though and his contact troubles are worrisome. Probably a second rounder.
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