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10 July 2009
Much Montero news lately. In a few short days the Yankees catching prospect has popped up everywhere, from Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus and now the folks of Baseball America.
Apparently Montero is pretty good, at least from what I've read, and it seems that he's been catapulting up prospect lists left and right. Here's the selection from Mr. Goldstein:
Jesus
Montero, C, Yankees (Pre-season ranking: 38)
After a big full-season debut last year, Montero has gone from one of the
better hitting prospects around to simply one of the best period, as after
going off in the Florida State League with a .356/.406/.583 line, the
19-year-old hasn't missed a beat as one of the youngest players in Double-A,
batting .312/.379/.527 for Trenton, including a recent four-game stretch in
which he hit five home runs. "He has improved his plate discipline, he's
making more contact, and he's still going to get better," said Mark
Newman, Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Yankees. "His
balance is going to get better, he's going to have a better plan at the
plate... offensively, he's as good as anyone we've had here." Montero's
defense behind the plate has often been the bigger story, but he continues to
make strides there, with a handful of scouts believing he could at least start
his big-league career behind the plate. "He's got a ways to go
still," admitted Newman. "But his arm accuracy and delivery times are
much better. We knew that was an issue when we first signed him, but my
confidence in his ability to stay at catcher grows all the time."
And Mr. Jaffe's thoughts on those comments:
It's good to hear that Montero's
progressing defensively. It's also timely given that it's July, a month when
any team would be well served to talk up its prospects in case they're needed
for a deadline deal. Note that the Yankees also have the well-regarded Austin
Romine, who's better defensively, in their system. He ranked fourth on
Goldstein's Top 11 Yankees Prospects list, where Montero was first.
Regarding the two catchers, Goldstein wrote, "Romine has a far better
chance of sticking at catcher than Montero, and should be seen as the catcher
of the future....He'll continue playing in the shadow of Montero at High-A
Tampa, but his all-around skills could be part of what eventually pushes
Montero off of the position."
Note also that their second-round pick in this year's draft was also a catcher,
one J.R Murphy. They're not exactly brimming with confidence that Montero's the
backstop of their future, though Baseball America's John Manuel had
this to say about the Murph: "People aren't sure if he will stick at
catcher defensively ... he can hit, and he has some athletic ability, but there
are only so many catchers that you can play in the minors at each level."
In any event, I still think the day when Montero joins the Yankee lineup is a
ways off, because he's either got to prove that his catching skills are
legitimate, or he's got to learn another position. That won't happen overnight,
and if he shifts, it would make no sense for him not to be playing every day
while learning the ropes. He's an exciting prospect, to be sure, but the
Yankees have every reason not to rush him.
And then today Baseball America comes out and says Montero is currently the 3rd best prospect in baseball (Austin Jackson is somewhere in the top 50).
It may surprise astute Yankee fans that some are experiencing a sort of "coup de foudre" over Montero at this point. But one should remember that Yankee prospects generally have an enormous amount of hype surrounding them some of which is unwarranted. So the hesitation for some prospect evaluators to declare Montero one of the best prospects in baseball is understandable. However Montero's recent body of work is unassailable.
Should Montero continue like this it will create an uncomfortable problem for the Yankees. You want Montero to be challenged so that he can improve both defensively and offensively. But Montero is running out of minor league levels very quickly. The Yankees also don't want to rush him: baseball is littered with the names of prospects that were handled poorly and flamed out quickly.
So what should Montero's time table look like? I can't speak for Greg (although I hope he leaves his opinion in the comments below) but I would hope that he remains in AA for the rest of the season and starts 2010 there as well. Should he show enough signs that he deserves a call up, both offensively as well as defensively; he should get the rest of the season in AAA. And for 2011 I think he should have a season similar to the one Austin Jackson is having now- a full year to develop at the AAA level before the Yankees consider moving him up further. So that would mean your seeing Montero sometime in 2012 as a 22 year old, not 2011 or even 2010- there's absolutely no need to rush him.
Montero also still needs to develop some plate discipline and pitch selection skills. It can often get overshadowed because he crushes absolutely everything thrown his way, but Montero really doesn't walk much. While that's not a huge enough problem to detract from what he's doing at A ball or even AA, you can bet it will be in the majors. By taking him slowly hopefully he'll learn to take more walks and develop a solid approach that will carry over into the majors.
Most importantly Montero needs a position. His catching skills have improved, maybe, but they're nowhere good enough to catch at the major league level. Most scouts and baseball people have doubted Montero has much of a future as the Yankee backstop at all, they envision him as a DH or 1B. There's been some clamor for him to try his hand at LF but that's difficult to imagine at this point. The Yankees will give him every chance to stay at catcher as they should-but Montero needs to develop a position before we start thinking about him in pinstripes.
The caveat to all this of course is if Montero really forces their hand. If he can develop enough of a position and continues to hit with no signs of slowing down it'll be hard not to advance him. Even if that is the case though I'd still hope they move him with prudent moderation. Montero is a precious asset for this organization and every effort should be made to maximize his value. For me, taking him slowly makes the most sense. Anyone beg to differ?
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