Written by Greg Fertel
|
06 September 2008
At the beginning of the season, the Yankees had one of the most complex, intriguing, and potentially erratic groups of prospects in the minors. In a very short time, the Yankees transformed their system from one of the worst in the majors to one of the better ones. Although hindsight is 20/20, it should have been clear to us that 2008 would be a year of adjustment and correction among our prospects. In our excitement and anxiousness we had very high expectations.
Prospects fail. Often. Its a reality of the hobby. The Yankees had a lot of prospects in the lower parts of their system, and a lot of young pitchers, both of which are factors that point toward a system in flux. We certainly saw that this season - there will be a ton of movement on my top-30. The catalogue of Yankee prospects has changed in character significantly - it is much more well rounded.
What happened this year?
Jesus Montero emerged from the "interesting international signing" group into the "legitimate top-25 prospect in all of baseball" group. The last Yankee position player to occupy that kind of real estate was Jose Tabata. Montero is a long way away, but (with all due respect to Austin Jackson) he's the first real example of a Yankee position player in the Damon Oppeheimer era cashing in on his potential at the plate.
Austin Jackson is an excellent prospect and is now probably an even-odds bet to become a major league centerfielder. However, he's still mostly about projection. Jackson hit a respectable .285/.354/.419 during his "Double-A shock' adjustment year, but every analytic sentence about him sounds mostly like "He held his own" or "He did enough." While this is all a good sign, its different from what Montero is doing.
Jesus Montero blew his league away at 18 years old. In a pitchers park and a quirky pitcher's league, Montero batted .326/.376/.491, including hitting .360/.411/.515 in away games, .366/.397/.542 with runners in scoring position, and .344/.407/.534 in the second half. He cut down his strikeouts and increased his walks as the year went on. You could not possible ask for more from Jesus than he did this year.
Yankee coaches have for the most part proven that they can develop pitching talent. Besides Robinson Cano (who has his own, possible coach-related, problems), they haven't proven that they can cultivate a long-term, sustainable major league career out of their talented players. Jesus Montero is the first really talented guy (I'm looking at Eric Duncan, Jose Tabata, Eduardo Nunez, Marcos Vechionacci, Reegie Corona, and others here) whose performance can be mentioned without a single excuse put to his name.
A Little Elbow Grease
Good farm systems do not just develop stars: they also manage to pull important pieces of a winning roster out from under the radar. We saw some of that cash in at the major league level this year, particularly in the bullpen. The hard work of the Yankee scouting staff has brought them David Robertson, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras,
Mark Melancon, and Alfredo Aceves mostly as near-finished products from outside the organization. But we all knew that the Yankees could scout players.
Like Montero's success, this year we're finally seeing the Yankee coaching staff start to cash in. They are developing pitchers like the word is meant to be used - taking someone who wouldn't be a major league prospect under normal conditions and making something happen. The Braves were the best at this for the longest time, along with the Athletics.
How many predicted that Phil Coke would be in the Bronx right now, peppering 94 mph fastballs? I didn't. Before the season started
I wrote,
"After I drew up a list of Yankee farmhands that I considered prospects, I ranked all 43. Phil Coke was #42. I dont have a lot of confidence in him, but hes a left handed pitcher with good control of an average fastball."
And guess what? Coke's six years under Yankee tutelage since being drafted looks like its going to end in some kind of major league career. He improved every aspect of his game in 2008, and Yankee coaches can take a lot of credit for that.
Coke isn't the only player whose hard work has paid off. The Yankees are looking at guys like
George Kontos, Eric Hacker,
Kevin Russo, and Michael Dunn all about to sit a few injuries away from major league contribution. They are destined to be replacement players, but have the potential to be better than the Sidney Ponsons and Miguel Cairos of the world.
The Ones That Really Matter
So, this season the Yankees proved that they have the ability to take a young kid, bristling with talent and reflect that talent beyond batting practice. They proved that if they throw a bunch of projects at a wall, a few will stick. But can their coaching staff really turn the tide of a major league long term by going for the big play and cashing in?
They are hopefully going to prove themselves with challenges from Brackman, Melancon, Sanchez, and Garcia. Tommy John surgery is, no matter how often people try to trivialize it, no small matter, and those four guys have a ton of talent. They seem to have passed the test on Melancon, but how will the other three turn out?
The one big pot that they appear to be on the way to winning is
Zach McAllister. McAllister was a 3rd round pick. Some other recent Yankee 3rd round picks - Brett Gardner, Ryan Pope, and
David Adams. That isn't exactly a high ceiling group of players. McAllister was a project pick, and took two years just to make it into the full season leagues. Guess what? He's now the top pitching prospect in the organization, and flashing stuff not all that different from a young Carl Pavano.
Conclusion
The New York Yankees did not have the best year at the draft. I'll be writing about that later. Despite that, this year can definitely be viewed as a great year for fans of the Yankee farm system. Even while the fates of the the big-three remain in limbo for a lot of reasons, we have story lines to anxiously be excited about. I know that I can't wait to analyze them this winter.
