Written by Greg Fertel
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03 May 2008
So, a lot has happened since I've been out of commission. We've finally figured out that something is wrong with Jose Tabata, Phil Hughes was terrible, had an injury, admitted to bad mechanics, and has inspired a half dozen blogs to make
Wild Thing jokes. Half of the Scranton roster is pitching in the Yankee bullpen, and the Yankees suddenly can't hit. What do we make of all this?
I'll start with the most pressing question:
Phil Hughes. Hughes, the major's youngest pitcher, had been very, very bad this season. He wasn't throwing hard, couldn't locate his pitches, and was getting bashed around. I've been worried about Hughes since last summer. Many of you will remember
a post that I made that drew a lot of controversy at the time.
Something has been wrong with Hughes since his injury last season. I know a lot of people love to say, "Hughes throwing 94-95 was just all hype." but the truth is that he really did throw that hard. Entering the 2007 season, Jorge Posada called him the "best arm in camp", better than Mariano Rivera, etc. He really did have some of the best control in the minors. He really was arguably the top pitching prospect in the game. None of that was an illusion.
I hate to make excuses for prospects. Ultimately, Phil Hughes is responsible for his own pitching and any failures are his own failures. Yeah, Hughes may need glasses. He may have had screwed up mechanics for a year now, but ultimately he's just not getting the job done. None of this is at all predictive of the future, but I do think that a few lessons need to be learned.
1. Phil Hughes cannot rely solely on two pitches. He's been largely unable to throw his changeup in the major leagues. Whether that is due to nerves or mechanics, we don't know, but something needs to be fixed. Hughes will have long rehab period in the minor leagues, which gives him plenty of time to iron out some kinks that he hasn't been able to work on in the majors.
2. He's got to get his control back. Although uncharacteristic of him, his 3.59 BB/9 in the major leagues was expected for a 21 year-old in the majors. His 5.31 BB/9 this season is a departure from expectations. He's either getting gun shy or this is a function of his mechanics.
3. He needs to get innings in this year... somewhere. Now out until July, Hughes runs an incredible risk. Last season, he was thrown off his schedule by missing two months with a hamstring strain. He barely cleared 100 innings. In order to build arm strength gradually over time and become a full-time major league starter, he needs to surpass that this year. Whether that means stretching him out in the minors or not, it needs to happen. Sometimes young players have to be optioned down during the year. It happens. I'd be happy to see Hughes rejoin the team as a starter in September.
The Yankees need a long term plan for Hughes. The win-now aspects of the 2008 season should not be at all on their minds. The 2008 team is going to succeed or fail regardless of Hughes' contribution. They've got the bullpen. They've got some good pitching. The offense needs to get healthy and click. Phil Hughes is the fortunate surplus that can be conserved. He's still got the potential to be an absolute ace along side Ian Kennedy (that's another post) and Joba Chamberlain. Things may look a lot less certain now than they used to, but one month for a couple of rookies changes the short term plan, not the long term one.
