Written by Greg Fertel
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13 May 2008
We pretty much have a meaningful sample size to evaluate how well our prospects have been performing. Its been a disappointing season so far in the Yankee system. How are the Pending Pinstripes Top 10 doing?
1. Ian Kennedy - He got off to a rocky start in the majors, but everything seemed to click during his minor league furlough. He's done nothing to justify reducing him down a spot.
2. Jose Tabata - His season line is .220/.306/.252, but his bat has come alive recently. He's batting an even .333 over his last 10 games, with 5 strikeouts against 3 walks. 19 year-olds aren't supposed to be as advanced as Tabata is, so struggles are overdue. Andrew McCutchen went through something similar at Double-A last year. He'll recover, and should contend for the top spot by the end of the year.
3. Austin Jackson - Jackson has been a mixed bag, hitting .273/.362/.364. He's not hot, but not cold either. I hate to make excuses for players, but for three years now Trenton has played like an extreme pitchers park in the early part of the spring. Wind? Cold? I don't know. Just a thought.
4. Jesus Montero - Montero has been everything that we could have hoped for. He's the odds-on favorite to be the top prospect in the organization the next time that we rank them. If he keeps up his .323/.358/.510 batting line through the whole season, he'll be considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Montero is also experiencing something very common among young hitters - he's OPSing 1.077 against right-handed pitchers and .517 against lefties. That is nothing at all to worry about. Players at this level just aren't just to seeing tough lefties, so it takes them some time to adjust.
5. Dellin Betances - He's been healthy and hard to hit, but has walked 29 batters in 41 innings. 49 strikeouts are nice, but Betances needs to reestablish control in order to shoot back up the prospect charts.
6. Alan Horne - Horne has been sidelined with an injured bicep for most of the season. He should return any day now. For now, we wait and see.
7. Jeff Marquez - Marquez has an ERA of 6.50. He's been knocked around by Triple-A hitters. Marquez had strikeout problems at Double-A last year, and its tough to say that he's more deserving of a spot in the Scranton rotation than Chase Wright or Dan McCutchen. If he's still struggling in July, we might start to hear whispers of a bullpen conversation.
8. Francisco Cervelli - Out with an injury since that spring training collision. With Ian Stewart and Chad Moeller taking turns in the majors, you have to wonder 'What could have been?' Cervelli is still a distance away from returning.
9. Jairo Heredia - He looked great before being DLed early after 4 starts. The Yankees were going to have to sit him down on the DL sometime this season, so his injury time shouldn't impact his long term prospect value. We're looking for strong control this season if he's going to gain stock.
10. Juan Miranda - Miranda, after showing a lot of promise last year and in the Arizona Fall League, has lost his power stroke. He's still quietly hitting .268/.388/.392, but has just 3 home runs and 3 doubles. He's looking more and more like a platoon hitter, hitting just .147/.194/.176 against left handed pitching and .333/.475/.508 against righties. With Shelley Duncan in the majors, Miranda will have to wait his turn.
It hasn't been a good season so far for the Yankee farm system. Every level has seen significant injuries, and some key players just aren't producing. Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson need to warm up with the weather. What about the rest of the top-30? We've seen some high-profiled success out of Brett Gardner,
Zach McAllister, David Robertson,
Austin Romine, Dan McCutchen, and to an extent Ryan Pope. At the same time, shortstops Carmen Angelini and Reegie Corona haven't hit a lick. Experienced farmhands Eric Duncan, Chase Wright, and Steve White continue to perform well enough to justify their inclusion at the tail end of the list.
A lot of prospects are going to start to fall off the list after this season. That's the nature of the game. Still, you'd like to have a rosier picture this far into the season than we're seeing now.
