Written by Greg Fertel
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30 March 2008
Prospect watching is almost entirely a giant exercise of the question, What If? Its about predicting an unpredictable future. So, this will be the first of a series of articles asking the question: What could happen?
Alberto Gonzalez is an interesting character. He didn't make the Pending Pinstripes top-30, but I did rank him #21 on my personal list, and
#18 last year. I've talked extensively about Gonzalez only needing to hit marginally well to be an asset at shortstop, but I'd like to look at him from a different perspective today.
Chad Jennings
gives us a relatively good picture of how good Gonzalez has been this spring. He hasn't played a ton (the minor league camp is a little behind right now), but he is hitting .461/.461/.615 in 7 official games, with more strong hitting on the side. He has yet to strike out or walk. This goes on top of his .341/.394/.524 winter ball performance, with 9 K, 9 BB and 4 HR in 34 games.
We all know that Gonzalez can play great defense at short. If he could be a top-5 defensive shortstop in the game, meaning he will be worth about 20 runs more than the average shortstop on the year, Gonzalez doesn't need to hit much, like we've said. The flip side to this coin is that if he does hit well, we're looking at a star.
Gonzalez hit an impotent .247/.300/.362 at Triple-A last year, but that does not tell the whole story. After a terrible start, the Yankees sent him down to Trenton to settle down. It worked, and he hit .330/.385/.440 in 28 games. He was promoted back to Scranton, hitting .325/.391/.492. Gonzalez may have been suffering from "New Club Syndrome" at the start of the year, and needed time to adjust to new pressures and coaching.
How good could he be? Its hard to tell. Gonzalez appears to have the ability to hit for average and control the strike zone fairly well. Jeter hit .322/.388/.452 last year and was worth 21 batting runs above the average shortstop. If Gonzalez can hit .300/.350/.400, he'll be worth about 10 batting runs above the average shortstop. In other words,
he'll be more valuable than Jeter was last year.
You read that right. Shortstop is a position where defensive can have a grand, meaningful impact. Even if Jeter is an average defensive shortstop (and he isn't), a well-hitting Gonzalez could plausible be better. Now, this doesn't mean that Jeter can't hit like its 2006 again and blow Gonzalez out of the water, but Jeter's just as likely to start to fall off with age as he is to hit like an MVP again. And he could do that at a position where defense is less important.
If Gonzalez has a strong Triple-A season, I cannot justify keeping Derek Jeter at short stop. He can play left field, 1st base, DH, center, or wherever. Gonzalez could easily turn around and forget his hot couple of months, and hit like a utility player again. But if the
what if comes true, you'll start hearing me call for his rise.
