Written by Greg Fertel
|
01 March 2008
So, I wish I could talk about lots and lots of
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA numbers on this site. I find the process fascinating and unparalleled. I would however like to talk about some PECOTA comparisons. In case you don't know, PECOTA weighs everything from age, performance, injuries, and minor league level to create a list of similar players.
Brett Gardner - Two good comparisons come up. Dave Roberts - a career .268/.342/.370 hitter, and Michael Bourn - who hit .277/.348/.378 last year. I think that this is a pretty fair gauge of Gardner's talent, although he could be better. Tucked way down on the comparable list is the great Tim Raines.
Robinson Cano - Carlos Baerga is his top comparable, which would probably disappoint Yankee fans. Of course, his #2 is George Brett with Al Oliver following at #4. Rod Carew and Brooks Robinson are way down on the list.
Ian Kennedy - Kennedy's #2 comparison is Barry Zito, which tells you how good he was in 2007 even if the scouting reports don't line up. Way down on the list are fireballers Josh Beckett, John Smoltz, and Justin Verlander at the beginnings of their careers. Interestingly, the list also includes players who flamed out early despite a lot of success in their young careers with Gary Nolan and Chuck Estrada.
Joba Chamberlain - PECOTA loves Chamberlain. He draws very few comparables because of how unique his career path has been. His similarity index stands at a very low 17, which means that the comparisons are all going to be fairly weak. Still, its worth noting that Roger Clemens sits at #4 and Sandy Koufax at #8.
Phil Hughes - Hughes' top two are Pete Broberg and Jaret Wright -
something that should worry Yankee fans - but Josh Beckett sits reassuringly at #3. Also coming up are Don Drysdale and Dennis Eckersley, while LaTroy Hawkins sits at #11.
Melky Cabrera - Carlos Beltran sits at #1, with Coco Crisp and Pete Rose immediately following, and Carl Yastrzemski, Nick Markakis, Reggie Smith, and Bernie Williams also coming up. Lesson: Wait 1 more year before knocking him off.
Alan Horne - PECOTA doesn't have a ton of faith in Alan Horne, with the failed Ryan Glynn sitting at #2. Ryan Dempster is an interesting thought at #4, and some hope is shown with Jason Schmidt and Russ Ortiz further down the list. I actually like the Jason Schmidt comparison a lot.
Jeff Marquez - The destructive careers of Dan Perkins and Nate Bump top the list, which is discouraging. However, Aaron Cook and Bob Wickman follow.
Kei Igawa - Top comparison? Casey Fossum. Enough said.
Alberto Gonzalez - This one really intrigues me. PECOTA doesn't think he can hit, with the Reys (Sanchez and Ordonez) showing up. Miguel Cairo and Edgar Renteria also appear.
Dan McCutchen - Completely meaningless comparison of the day? Tim Wakefield at #4.
Ross Ohlendorf - Gaylord Perry at #1. Wrap your head around that.
Shelley Duncan - Bam-bam doesn't give us an inspiring list, but Craig Wilson, Eduardo Perez, and Glennallen Hill should make Yankee fans happy.
Edwar Ramirez - PECOTA thinks that he's going to be very good. Strikeout rates are very important to the program's calculations, so it shouldn't be a big surprise that PECOTA compares Edwar to John Wetteland, Ugueth Urbina, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Goose Gossage.
