Written by Greg Fertel
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30 March 2008
I've held off long enough.
AL East - 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox (Wild Card) 3. Blue Jays 4. Rays 5. Orioles
Boston's lack of pitching depth costs them the few wins necessary to take the division again. Even if the Yankee young pitching falters, it will be an improvement on the back end of previous rotations. I'm predicting a fairly healthy Yankee pitching staff, with a starter ERA of 4.10 and a bullpen ERA of 3.20, good for #2 in the league. Improvements from Robinson Cano, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi and Melky Cabrera make up for a slight drop off from Alex Rodriguez and a much larger one from Jorge Posada, and the offense once again scores 950+ runs. Jason Giambi belts 30 home runs and wins the gold glove.
AL Central - 1. Tigers 2. Indians 3. Royals 4. White Sox 5. Twins
The Tigers will earn one of the messiest division wins in recent memory. A healthy, yet ineffective pitchers following Justin Verlander combine for a 5.25 starter ERA, and the bullpen isn't much better. However, Curtis Granderson returns healthy to an offense that will earn some sort of Murders Row-ripoff nickname from Steve Phillips by July, and the Tigers roll to 96 wins. The Indians are solid but just don't have the guns to compete with Detroit. The Royals are the surprise team of the year, winning 83 games behind a solid rotation and breakout years from both Gordon and Butler.
AL West - 1. Angels 2. Mariners 3. Rangers 4. Athletics
The AL West will be more competitive than expected. Jon Daniel's work in Texas will start to bear fruit, and the Mariners will have a surprising awesome pitching staff. Erik Bedard finally stays healthy, and leads the Mariners to the league's best ERA (with some help from the ballpark). However, the Mariners lack of offense prevents them from winning more than 87 games. Ichiro regresses a little bit, Ibanez shows his talent level, and the Mariners realize that they forgot to replace Jose Guillen. The Angels get a solid year out of Hunter, who provides the best protection for Vlad in years. John Lackey returns with effectiveness, but is overshadowed by a breakout year by Jered Weaver. The Athletics' young players perform better than expected, but the pitching staff shows its inexperience. Rich Harden gets attacked by wolves and strains his oblique.
NL East: 1. Mets. 2. Phillies. 3. Braves. 4. Nationals. 5. Marlins.
Somehow, John Maine looks awesome. His year is only overshadowed by the resurgent performance of Pedro Martinez and the dominance of Johan Santana. Reyes, Beltran, and Wright lead a strong offense, and the Phillies are left in their dust. The Braves have a strong year, but regret trading their chips for Mark Teixeira while forgetting that you can't compete in a strong division with Mike Hampton as your 3rd best starter. Manny Acta coaxes solid rookie seasons out of Milledge and Dukes, and Jesus Flores is starting in every fantasy league by July.
NL Central: 1. Cubs 2. Brewers (Wild Card) 3. Astros 4. Reds 5. Cardinals 6. Pirates
The Cubs bring both above-average offense and pitching to the ballpark, and the balanced approach wins them the weak division yet again. The Brewers are able to pull out the NL Wild Card not because they are the 2nd best team in the NL, but because the NL West beats each other up all season. Braun and Fielder hit better than Manny and Ortiz. Once its July and we realize that Jay Bruce has taken 3 walks all year, we all realize that Dusty Baker has screwed up at least 2 young Cincinnati prospects. Homer Baily is no longer talked about as a top prospect after walking 5 per 9 in 2008.
NL West: 1. Diamondbacks 2. Dodgers 3. Padres 4. Rockies 5. Giants
The Diamondbacks improve across the board on offense, with their young players almost universally improving. Justin Upton introduces himself to the world with 25 home runs. Micah Owings pitches poorly enough initially to cause a few people to suggest that he play 1st base full time, but gets better as the season wears on. Joe Torre gets more credit than he deserves for letting Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have awesome years, but Andruw Jones barely improves upon his 2007 numbers. In the end, the Dodgers team sees too many injuries at 2nd, 3rd, and short to overcome Haren and Webb. The Rockies offense continues to surge, but the pitching behind Francis does not.
- AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard (Scott Kazmir, Josh Beckett)
- NL Cy Young: Johan Santana (Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb)
- AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz)
- NL MVP: David Wright (Chase Utley, Chipper Jones)
- AL Rookie of the Year: Ian Kennedy (Daric Barton, Joba Chamberlain)
- NL Rookie of the Year: Chase Headley (Kosuke Fukudome, Geovany Soto)
- AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi
- NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta (or at least, he'll deserve it)
- AL Comeback Player of the Year: Rich Harden
- NL Comeback Player of the Year: Pedro Martinez
- AL Breakout Player of the Year: Robinson Cano
- NL Breakout Player of the Year: Jeremy Hermida
