Written by Greg Fertel
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31 March 2008
Steve over at
Was Watching linked to an interesting article in the New York Daily News, which talked about how scouts see long term success for the big 3, but crashed Yankee hopes for this season. Now, I don't like their conclusion (despite recognizing the long term success that the young pitchers should bring, the newspaper says the Yanks should have traded for Santana), but I do think they bring up an interesting question. How many are the Yankees relying on rookies (and near-rookies) this season, and to what extent will that impact their chances in 2008?
The Yankee starting rotation right now (as you know) consists of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy. Wang has been struggling in spring training, but I'm willing to chalk that up to trying new things when the games don't count for now, so I'm not raising the red flag yet. Despite the minor back issue, Pettitte has been strong. Let's assume that those two repeat their 2007 performances.
#1 Starter - 30 starts, 200 innings, 3.70 ERA.
#2 Starter - 34 215 innings, 4.05 ERA.
Now, we have Mike Mussina. He's a hard one to predict. His strikeout rate plummeted last season, but he also suffered from bad luck, considering that his xFIP was low (4.58) and his line drive % and BABIP were elevated. He was bad, but not nearly as bad as his 5.15 ERA suggests. I'm going to be cautiously optimistic and project him for 180 innings of 4.50 ERA.
#3 Starter - 29 starts, 180 innings, 4.50 ERA
Ok, so now we have the young guns. Phil Hughes is the hardest one to predict. How many innings will he get? Will he be shut down to spare his arm? Will he work out of the bullpen? I'm going to bet that Girardi will do what I concluded a few months ago and switch Hughes to the bullpen when Joba enters the rotation in the summer. I predict (starting) out of Hughes 130 innings in 22 starts out of the rotation, with an ERA of 3.80. I actually think that Chamberlain will struggle a little bit in the rotation, pitching 40 innings in 8 starts with an ERA of 4.30.
#4 Starter - 22 starts, 130 innings, 3.80 ERA + 8 starts, 40 innings, 4.30 ERA.
Now, Ian Kennedy. I've made no secret of my belief in the guy, and I think that he will prove me right this season. Kennedy will provide the Yankees some valuable effective innings. His flyball tendancies play to the Yankee's defensive strength, and he's as well polished as major league rookies come. He'll walk a tightrope with walks (throwing some 3-2 pitches out of the zone), but will in the end be effective. 185 innings with an ERA of 4.00.
#5 starter - 28 starts, 180 innings, ERA of 4.05.
Obviously, some innings will be filled by replacements. The most likely replacements on the Yankee 40-man are Steve White, Jeff Karstens, and Jeff Marquez. Farther down the road, Alan Horne and Dan McCutchen could make appearances, with Kei Igawa also looming. Overall, this should be a better group than last year's.
Depth Starters - 11 starts, 58 innings, ERA of 5.20.
Now, how does that compare to last year? We're replacing Roger Clemens, Kei Igawa, Matt DeSalvo, Darrell Rasner, Tyler Clippard, Carl Pavano, Chase Wright, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Sean Henn from last season in the 4-5 spots. That group combined for 71 starts, 385 innings, and and ERA of 5.69 (including some bullpen work for individuals). Add in Mussina's 5.15 ERA in 152 innings and you get 537 innings of 5.53 ERA pitching behind Pettitte and Wang.
The rotation that I am predicting pitches 588 innings with an ERA of 4.31 behind Pettitte and Wang. That's far from domination, but it is better than anything we've seen in the past few years with Jaret Wright, Randy Johnson, Sidney Ponson, et al manning the back end of the rotation. And if our bullpen is better than years past, fewer inherited baserunners will score, leading to lower ERAs. That's already 7-8 wins better for the Yankees, without accounting for better relief pitching (and more efficient allocation of that relief pitching without Joe Torre in the dugout). The Yankees can handle an injury, a dropoff from Wang, or slightly worse offensive production and still win 96 games.
