Written by Greg Fertel
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26 June 2008
Hey guys. I'll be returning to regular blogging after next week. The world of political internships is not one conducive to having free time. However, I will be spending all of next week [relaxing] in the woods. I won't be anywhere near a computer.
Alfredo Aceves astounds me. I was originally a skeptic. A Mexican League veteran is supposed to dominate the Florida State League. He's supposed to do pretty well in the Eastern League. But Alfredo Aceves has soared through the system and has been a virtually unhittable pitcher. He'll make his next start at Triple-A, and I suspect that we'll see more of the same from him. My prediction is still a skeptical one. Aceves is obviously locked into a zone right now, and I think that for this season he could be an effective major league pitcher. As a TINSTAAP guy, I see that he's pitching filthy and should be able to transfer that to the highest level. Pitchers sometimes lock themselves into zones like this - think about Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon or even Phil Hughes in 2006. I think that if Aceves puts up another 3 or so dominate starts at the Triple-A level, he should replacing a (predictably) struggling Darrell Rasner in the rotation. He's better than Sidney Ponson. I'm still skeptical because I want to see what he does next year. Aceves has had outstanding control in the minors, which is a good sign, but his strikeout rate isn't impervious. If he takes a hit in that department, he won't be effective.
Brett Gardner needs to be called up to play center field. I get the sense that the Yankees chose Justin Christian with the intention of his promotion being purely temporary. They didn't want to have to worry about a position fight between Melky and Gardner. To me, this is incredibly short time thinking. Melky is hitting very poorly right now, and has become a hole in the lineup. His defense, while solid, isn't anything to write home about. Brett Gardner, on the other hand, is hitting .295/.414/.440 for Scranton, stealing at a 60+ pace with a 79% success rate, and playing much better defense. If the Yankees care more about winning both short and long term than they do about satisfying Melky Cabrera's ego, they will make the move as soon as possible. Melky will be an assett as a backup outfielder on this team, and will be competing with Gardner for playing time.
Its really a tragedy for my impatience that the Yankees have so many good relief options in the major leagues right now. However, there is a potential opening down the road for one reliever when LaTroy Hawkins is finally cut. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that David Robertson is not yet ready, due to his control. He's striking out batters at a tremendous rate, and I generally agree with Bill James that relievers are primarily functions of their strikeout rate, but his wildness scares me away. Robertson hasn't been sitting in the minors for very long, so there is no shame in making him wait until at least September for a call up. J.B Cox has the opposite problem - his control is great, but he only has 5 strikeouts in 13 innings. I think that the clear solution here is
Scott Patterson. Patterson has settled down after a rocky start, is showing great control and strikeout rates, and is on the 40-man roster. Let Melancon, Cox, and Robertson compete for September and/or next year. With Hawkins and Farnsworth gone, the Yankee bullpen should be super-flexible next year.
I'm still mixed on
Ross Ohlendorf. He's been stronger of late, but Ohlendorf is still displaying the same characteristics that he did in the minor leagues. As a reliever, he is very often hittable. His mid-90s fastball needs better breaking stuff to compliment it, or else Ohlendorf will remain this hittable. He's clearly better off when not being used as a long man, and it seems that Joe Girardi has figured that out. Still, I think that we should keep an eye on Ohlendorf and look toward either Patterson or one of the guys farther down (or a trade) for a replacement. Ohlendorf has plenty of option time left to refine himself.
