Written by Greg Fertel
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22 July 2008
While working on my midseason top prospect list, I am going to take a look at our offseason top 30, to see how well we did in projecting how prospects' stocks would rise and fall. Here goes nothing, starting from the top, with #1-10
1. Ian Kennedy RHP: Graduated, but would have dropped a little due to his control problems in the majors and injuries. He's still a good bet to be a #4 starter in the majors, and could easily be more than that.
2. Jose Tabata RF: Falling due to mediocre performance, attitude problems, and injuries. While this has been a tough season for him (.248/.320/.310), he was starting to put it together in the 2nd half, hitting .342 in his last 10 games before going on the DL with a hamstring injury. Given that the jump from high-A to AA is a tough one, I'm not overly concerned about Tabata, even with his makeup questions. No way he slides out of my top 5, maybe even top 3.
3. Austin Jackson CF: Rising a little due to his overall solid season in AA, .295/.374/.455 before tonight's game, also with 9 homers, 15 steals and good defense. His torrid July (in which he's hitting .400) has brought his numbers up from where they had been sitting, but this seems to be another 2nd-half tear like he went on last season. He seems right on track to be the Yankees' centerfielder sometime in 2009 or 2010. He's definitely one of the top 2 prospects in the system.
4. Jesus Montero C: Rising. While we ranked Montero aggressively at #4 last season, there was still the understanding that it would be hard to know what we had in him before he got to full-season ball. With a .312/.362/.453 line with 9 homers (in a home park that suppresses homers), he has shown that he can handle Sally League pitching. The defense is still a work in progress, but another season at catcher is another season closer to proving the doubters wrong.
5.
Dellin Betances RHP: Holding. Betances was ranked here with the knowledge that he is still somewhat raw mechanically and has been injured, but still has huge upside. So far this season, he has confirmed those beliefs, striking out over a batter per inning and walking almost 6 per 9 innings. If he proves he can stay healthy for a whole season and improve his control, he is a top 3 guy easily. That said, it's hard to drop a guys with his upside outside of the top 5.
6. Alan Horne RHP: Stock is falling a little due to injuries and mediocre performance when not on the DL. His strikeout rate was down and the walks were too high, and at 25, he doesn't have too much time to maintain his elite prospect status.
7. Jeff Marquez RHP: Falling for similar reasons as Horne, though he was never as highly-regarded to start with. His groundball rate is good (1.70), but 33 strikeouts in 80.7 innings is not encouraging.
8. Francisco Cervelli C: Holding steady. While he has missed most of the season due to injury, he should be able to bounce back and recapture his prospect status. With most of his value in his defense, all he needs to do is be an adequate hitter and he will have value to the major league team.
9.
Jairo Heredia RHP: Rising. Similar to Montero, he impressed last season in the GCL, but we wanted to see what he could do in full-season ball. His 2.96 ERA, good groundball rate (2.00) and solid strikeout rate (8.3/9) at 18 in the Sally League certainly bode well for his future. Control is his main weakness currently.
10. Juan Miranda 1b: Holding steady. Despite not showing the power that has been expected of him (only 7 homers so far), Miranda has hit well (.809 OPS) despite missing time because of injuries. He will need to be better than that to make it to the majors, but he has time to improve.
