Written by Greg Fertel
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26 September 2007
Yankee prospects get hyped. A lot. I'm responsible for a lot of that - but we Yankee fans are rabid, full of expectations. With the Phil Hughes minor league era over, our hopes and dreams were transfered to an 18 year-old outfielder. Jose Tabata has been called "The Next Manny", but how did he do this season?
His overall batting line was .300/.364/.383 with 70 strikeouts, 32 walks, 5 hr, and a .352 BABIP. He hit 57% of his balls on the ground, 11% liners, and 28% fly balls. What do I see here? First off, I see an 18 year-old holding his own in the punishing Florida State League. I see a player who hit lefties (.298/.360/.404) and righties (.300/.366/.373) almost at identical rates - something very rare for such a young player. He hit twice as many fly balls and line drives the opposite way, also rare for a young player.
The negatives? He's hitting too much on the ground. Power hitters hit line drives and hard fly balls - Tabata seemed content for much of the season to punch a single through the infield. He generates tremendous bat speed, but his stature (5'11"), will be an obstacle if he ever intends to hit for major power.
Look, Tabata is 18 years old and suffered through a debilitating wrist injury this season. When healthy over the past two years, he's shown the ability to blow away pitchers and hit .340+. His injury really masks whatever we can really learn about his hitting ability. He has immense talent, and can hold down right field. He's going to hit for average.
I think that there are five different players that we could model Tabata's future on: Miguel Cabrera, Brian Giles, Bernie Williams, Jose Reyes, and Manny Ramirez.
He Develops the Power
Manny Ramirez - He's got extremely quick hands. He has excellent pitch recognition skills. He has a body like Manny Ramirez. If Yankee fan's hopes and dreams are aided by a favorable astrological alignment, then Jose Tabata is going to start showing 30-40 HR power very soon. His age and injuries have kept him back, not showing us the tremendous raw ability underneath. Likelihood? Manny hit 19 HR in 59 games at the age of 19. That just isn't present in Tabata.
Miguel Cabrera - Miguel Cabrera can hit for power - he averages about 30 home runs per year - but is much more of an average-first hitter. Away from his murderous home park, Cabrera would be an annual contender for the NL Batting title, belting doubles, home runs, and singles at will. For me, this is really the best-case scenario for Jose Tabata. Realistically, he'll max out at Miguel Cabrera's power level. Cabrera actually struggled through the minor leagues, hitting .268/.328/.382 at age 18 and .274/.333/.421 at 19. He didn't explode until he was 20 years old in AA, hitting .365/.429/.609. Extremely talented players who are playing at leagues above their head tend to break out in a similar pattern - see Hanley Ramirez.
Brian Giles - I've compared Tabata to Brian Giles in the past, and I still think that it's a good one. Giles has been a career .296/.406/.518 hitter. Tabata has shown the tendency to take a lot of walks at times, but hasn't let it take over as his dominant offense function. Right now, Tabata's dominant function is hitting. He's also morphed into a more strikeout-happy hitter, King at a 100+ per 160 rate. Giles developed power, but not until he was 23 years old. He hit at a 10-15 HR pace until then, moving remarkably quickly and even seeing significant AAA time at Tabata's age. He didn't make the majors full time until he was 25, despite hitting very well at AAA, due to a logjam in Cleveland's outfield.
Not So Much
Bernie Williams - A highly promising prospect, Williams never allowed power to become his dominant offensive trait. He posted Tabata-like statistics in the low minors, hitting .344/.410/.387 in A ball at 18. He really broke out in High-A the next year, hitting .335/.449/.487. Two years later, he was ready to be a major league regular, and we all know what happened from there. He was a superstar hitter despite averaging 25 home runs a season, combining the ability to get on base with high-average hitting. Jose Tabata could
very easily replicate Bernie William's production, despite striking out more. It wouldn't even surprise me all that much
Jose Reyes - Anyone who's read me for a long time knows that I am
not a Jose Reyes fan. He's the sport's most overrated player - actually convincing writers that 'exciting' means 'useful'. Still, Reyes hit .300/.354/.487 in 2006 at a key defensive position - something that Tabata could easily do manning center field. He won't steal 70 bases a year, but he does have the ability to steal 30-40, and the utility of a stolen base is rather insignificant anyway. The Yankees wouldn't at all be unhappy if Tabata becomes a slightly slower Jose Reyes, but you do get the feeling that he could be better. At 18, Reyes hit .307/.337/.472 in Low-A. At 19, he hit .288/.353/.425, eventually making the major leagues not much later.
He could also bust out. He could become a marginal player. He could steal Derek Jeter's glove and get traded in disgrace. "Mini-Manny" is about as good of a hitting prospect as they come, way ahead of where he should be at his age. He'll be 19 years old at starting at Double-A. Expect big things.
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