Written by Greg Fertel | 14 September 2007

It's been a busy week for me, but my schedule is going to get a lot looser in the coming months. I apologize for neglecting this blog, especially with so many exciting things going on. I was thinking about waiting to talk about Austin Jackson's breakout in a full-length article until I wrote his profile, but I really can't resist any more. I'm a performance guy. I like to see prospects succeed and make progress. The Yankees drafted the very raw Austin Jackson with a surprise pick in the 8th round of the 2005 draft. Jackson's future was expected to be in basketball at Georgia Tech, but the Yankees had other plans. The organization had scouts watching Jackson before puberty, and obviously liked what they saw. I'd wager that the Yankees' 800,000 dollars wasn't the only strong argument that they made to the young Jackson: they probably shared their vision of his stardom with the 18 year-old. He started off well in the Gulf Coast League. The second half of the 2005 season was an interesting one for Yankee farm fans. Phil Hughes came into the spotlight and claimed the team's top pitching spot from the struggling Steven White. Eric Duncan, then the organization's top prospect, struggled in AA. Jon Poterson collapsed. Meanwhile, down in the little Gulf Coast League, we watched the super-young trio of C.J. Henry, Jose Tabata, and Austin Jackson define themselves. Henry flopped and Tabata made his name, but often lost in the story was Jackson's quiet but strong .304/.374/.405 batting line. Jackson entered 2006 with increased expectations. Fans saw a little bit of Kenny Lofton in him, but the (this time) inquisitive Baseball America was more skeptical. They weren't very impressed with his baseball abilities, especially with a long swing and poor defensive ability. He hit .258/.338/.344 and was pretty bad on defense. Baseball America didn't provide much hope for his recovery. One commenter on this site even remarked that Jackson "isn't worth a bucket of spit", but I remained optimistic, writing:

Jackson is my pick for a breakout prospect in 2007. Except for the strikeouts, he has done everything right. If he could cut those strikeouts down considerably he looks to be a .290/.380/.450 player who can steal you 40-50 bases every year. He is still a long way off, but the Yankees may push him to Tampa next year. He will join teammates Battle, Corona, Vechionacci, and others there. He is at a stage where the average high school prospect would still be trying to figure out how to tie his shoes in professional ball, so it is easy to underrate his performance so far. He is ahead of where Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, similar in terms of talent, were at this age.

It turns out that I was right. After a slow start, Jackson hit .345/.398/.566 in High-A Tampa as a 20-year old, a great accomplishment by any measure. He flashed respectable power, improved his defense, and cut back on a glaring hole in is game: his proclivity to strike out. Raw athletes who are drafted out of high school very often follow this same pattern. Rather, major league stars who were drafted as raw athletes out of high school do. They tend to break out in a big way once they find their groove, they rocket toward the bigs. So, is this breakout for real, or is it just a half-season oddity. Let's look at the peripherals. His K% in Charleston was a high 25%, which lowered to a below average but manageable 18% in Tampa. His BABIP went from a very good .329 to an unsustainable .396 (he hit 23 line drives and only 3 were caught for outs). Walks remained about the same. His Xb% remained stable at 33% (versus 32% in Charleston), but ISO jumped from .113 to .225. He hit more strong fly balls the opposite way, which was perhaps the biggest flaw to his approach in Charleston: he simply didn't hit the fly balls very hard. What does this all mean? First off, the power development is very, very real. Jackson did absolutely everything that you would expect of a 20-year old all of the sudden looks like a 25 HR hitter. I was skeptical for awhile that Jackson would hit for plus power, but these numbers convince me. The batting average? Obviously, it's going to fall. The improvement in the strikeout department will keep him above average in the average department, but no one has 86% of line drives fall in for hits in the bigs. His line drive rate (11%) was pretty average anyway. Regardless, we're finally seeing glimpses of what type of hitter Jackson is destined for. We're looking at a speedster who hits hard fly balls - a deadly combination. Curtis Granderson went 20-20-20-20 this year. Austin's counting statistics projected over 160 games? 24 home runs, 14 triples, 30 stolen bases, and 36 doubles. Austin Jackson does not turn 21 until February.

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