Written by Greg Fertel
|
03 October 2007
I was the only Yankee blogger
to recognize Robertson's potential a year ago. I wish that I could take credit for it, but to be honest I was just taking the recommendation of a good friend who told me that this 17th round guy named David Robertson would be, "the next big thing, better than Cox" after seeing him pitch in the Cape Cod League. I figured that I trusted my friend enough and was impressed by Robertson's MVP performance that I tossed him on the back of my list.
Well, he was right. Robertson started all the way down in Charleston, pitching 47 innings in 24 appearances, allowing just a
0.77 ERA, 25 hits, and 15 walks with 67 strikeouts. He found his way to Tampa, where he pitched 33 1/3 innings with an
ERA of 1.08, 18 hits, 15 walks, and 37 strikeouts. He finished the season by helping pitch Trenton to it's championship, pitching 4 innings at the end of the regular season with one earned run allowed, 2 hits, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts. All told, he had one of the more dominating relief seasons in my minor league memory, pitching 84 1/3 innings with a 0.96 ERA and a 113/32 (
12.09 K per 9, 3.42 BB per 9). For every out in the air, Robertson made batters pound two balls into the ground.
What have we learned from Robertson? First off, he's lost some velocity. In college, Robertson was a wild flamethrower, punching balls in the mid 90s. This season, he's worked a lot slower at 92-94, but with better control. Still, once promoted to Tampa, he didn't have fantastic control, putting up BB/9s over 4.00.
Was he getting wild? I'm tempted to give him the same benefit of the doubt that I gave Ian Kennedy. When a prospect is so damn dominant that no one can get a solid hit off him, then he has a huge incentive to pitch outside of the strike zone. The data confirms my theory - Robertson walked 3.15 per 9 with no one on , but 5.84 with a man on first and 7.50 with runners in scoring position in Tampa, and showed similar splits (2.70 with no one on, 4+ with men on base/RISP) in Charleston. Why give them a pitch to hit when you can strike the next guy out? He struck out almost 14 per 9 with RISP between the two levels. Most of his walks also came with 2 outs, decreasing their utility.
My first reaction when Robertson was walking so many in the higher leagues was, "Slow him down, let him adjust to the level in 2008." After looking at the splits, I say
screw that. Get the man to Triple-A, because the Yankees are going to need to replace Joba Chamberlain next year as Mariano's bridge. Joba and Kennedy proved
TINSAAPP (
There
Is
No
Such
Thing
As
A Pitching
Prospect) correct this year, and Robertson should be able to do the same. On any other team, he'd probably be in the majors already.
In other news, Vermont is holding a
secession conference. Just though that I'd let you know.
