Written by Greg Fertel
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01 October 2007
Lost in the exciting seasons of Alan Horne, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain was
Jeff Marquez. The 22-year old sinker/changeup pitcher had a solid season - 155 innings pitched, 3.65 ERA, a 53% ground ball rate, and a 5.45/2.55 K/BB rate ratio. He was very consistent month to month.
Sinkerballers in the minor leagues are probably the hardest type of pitcher to read. Marquez made the job even harder this season by getting significantly fewer ground ball outs than in last year - dropping from 2.05 G/F to 1.34. What happened? It's hard to tell. The Yankees concentrated this year on developing his curveball, which would result in many more fly outs.
I think that we have to toss out the sinkerballer conventions with Marquez's evaluation this season. He puts the ball in play - but with a heavy reliance on his changeup, he won't draw a ton of ground balls like the "big five" sinkerballers today - Carmona, Wang, Westbrook, Webb, and Lowe. His rate statistics - 5.45 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and 0.64 HR/9 - are solid, although the K numbers are definitely scary. He remains remarkably hittable despite a reasonable BABIP (.303 - 50 points down from last season) and only above average 53% ground ball rate with a 9.62 hits per 9.
Heres what we know: He has excellent stuff (92-93 mph sinker, plus changeup, slightly below average curveball), and good control. He just put together a solid season at Double-A, and improved his control despite a low strikeout rate. He'll enter Triple-A next season, and then should be on the major league short list.
I think that Marquez is an excellent candidate to be traded. He doesn't have the kind of upside that say Alan Horne does. However, you could probably slot Marquez into a major league rotation by June and he won't get blown away. With a little coaching on his breaking ball, he could even be pretty good.
If Marquez is not traded, will we see him in New York next year? Well, Stephen White, Tyler Clippard, and possibly Alan Horne will likely be higher on the Yankee's priority list. Hopefully the Yankees don't have to tap that far into their depth charts. Or Marquez could put it all together in spring training and force a change.
Finally, the question that comes up with all the current Yankees in the upper levels of the farm system - could Marquez benefit from a bullpen conversion? We saw what the conversion has done for failed Triple-A sinkerballers Steve Jackson and Ross Ohlendorf. I think that this discussion is a bit premature, because Jackson and Ohlendorf both suffered from the lack of a plus secondary offering. Still, it would be interesting to see how much velocity Marquez could put on a sinker in short outings.
