Quick Recap and a Word

Written by Greg Fertel | 27 May 2007

Hey guys. I've been kind of taking a short break on this holiday weekend. I'd figure that I would do some really quick recaps before saying a word on prospect theory.

Joba Chamberlain had an absolutely fantastic start today. He struck out 9 and walked 2 in 8 innings, allowing just two hits. More on him below. Jose Tabata, Juan Miranda, Francisco Cervelli, and Kevin Russo all hit doubles today for Tampa. Tim Battle smacked a home run and struck out his other four times to the plate.

Trenton split a double header that saw Brett Smith give up 3 runs in 5 innings and reliever Mike Gardner make the other start. Gardner just turned 26, but is having a great season. He allowed just two walks and one hit in four scoreless innings. Kevin Whelan relieved him with 4 strikeouts in 2 scoreless innings, and Kroenke continued his scoreless streak with a one inning save.

Eric Duncan was 2 for 3 with a walk today for Scranton. He has just 2 strikeouts in his last 10 games. Chris Britton allowed a single in a scoreless inning, and Alberto Gonzalez hit two singles in four at bats. Gonzalez is starting to turn it around, hitting .294/.368/.411 in his last 10 games.

Mitch Hilligoss brought his hitting streak to 33 games. He's starting to get some national media attention for the impressive streak. I'm not sure if anyone in the minors has ever reached Joe's MLB record, but Hilligoss is the kind of guy who could give him a run for it. Ferdin Tejada finally had a good outing, pitching two perfect innings with one strikeout. Seth Fortenberry hit a double and a home run, bringing his season line to an expected .263/.343/.446. Off the top of my head, Fortenberry might have the highest slugging percentage of any current Yankee prospect. Of his 49 hits, 18 have been for extra bases.

So, a word on prospect theory. Right now we have a bunch of pitching prospects - namely 2006 first round picks Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain, sitting around dominating A ball hitters in the Florida State League. Why are they there still? Is the organization being patient, or overly cautious?

There are three basic reasons to keep a pitcher at his current level. First, to build up arm strength. If a pitcher is struggling, he might not get deeper into games on a regular basis, which means less work for his arm. At a lower level, the pitcher can settle in and just throw. Second, to learn. It's a lot easier to mess with a guy's delivery, teach him a new pitch, or whatever when you're not getting hit out of the ballpark with every little mistake. Finally, the third reason is overcrowding. Some guys don't get moved up because there aren't spots for them to occupy. There are other minor reasons that we could talk about, like not wanting to pitch a guy in the cold, but they aren't relevant to the discussion.

Why is Ian Kennedy still in Tampa? He clearly has little to learn down there. He's throwing the 2-seamer that the Yankees taught him very well, and compiling huge strikeout numbers. You can't learn when you outmatch hitters so well that they can't teach you a lesson when you hang a curveball. Kennedy certainly doesn't have arm strength issues thanks to his college polish, and Trenton clearly has an upon roster spot for him. The Yankees have to bring in Lavigne to pitch on Kennedy's day. In order for Kennedy to actually get something worthwhile out of these starts, he has to face advanced hitters.

What about Joba? Well, he hasn't made enough starts in Tampa to really justify moving him up yet... or has he? Joba has made five starts, gradually going deeper into games each time. His control has improved, and he keeps getting more balls on the ground for outs. It all culminated with an 8 inning, 2 hit shutout of Vero Beach today. Is Chamberlain ready for AA? Probably. I advocated sending him there before this season started. He's a top-10 arm, so we might as well throw him at the highest level possible when he's healthy. Still, unlike Kennedy, Joba still seems to have room to improve at his current level. He's been getting better every start. There is no reason to believe that he can't continue to improve and gain consistency at this level. Once he does, then the Yankees should promote him.

The point of this? I don't like the organization sitting around and letting their college arms rot in A ball. When guys are dealing, promote them. Jon Hovis, get him to Tampa. Get David Robertson to Tampa. Get Scott Patterson to Scranton. Be aggressive my Yankees. Trust in the empirical evidence that you see. You know that these guys are damn good, so push them. Make them learn. Make them fail. Build them up into complete pitchers. The baby gloves are fine for a 19 year old high school golden arm, but not for a 22 year old guy who just pitched in the CWS, because that guy will be 25 and bordering on old age before you know it.