Written by Greg Fertel
|
22 May 2007
- Age: 23
- Height: 6'5"
- Weight 220 lbs
- Acquired: Drafted 2nd round in 2004 from University of California-Irvine
- Position: Starting Pitcher
- Throws: Right
Scouting Report: Smith is a big guy, but he doesn't throw like a big guy. His fastball tops out at 93-94, but usually sits lower in the 91-92 range. His primary weapon is a plus (and live) changeup. He backs that up with a curveball and slider, though only the curveball is any good. He sounds a lot like a typical Yankee/Nardi pitcher right? Smith has added a new twist on the 6'3+ 220+ lb righty curveball archetype by pitching much more like a Tyler Clippard pitcher this year. He has been starting a lot of batters off with his changeup and curveball for strikes, and finishing them off with the fastball and more changeups.
History: Smith impressed scouts at California, who labeled him a safe pick to be a major league starting pitcher thanks to his deep repertoire to compliment a decent fastball and good command. However, the slider did not translate well to wooden bats, and Smith struggled out of the gate. He signed after the 2004 season was over, and started 2005 in Charleston. The Yankees had him work his breaking pitches hard, resulting in 61 strikeouts in 66 innings with just 14 walks. However, he had trouble commanding both pitches against better hitters once promoted to Tampa, where he saw his ERA rise to 5.21 in 74 innings. He struck out just 34 but still held hitters to just 17 walks. Smith was getting hit around, and had to start living in the corners. He took the new approach in to 2006, leading the Florida State League in innings pitched with 158. His walked 56 for a career high 3.18 per 9, and managed to strike out only 119 (6.76 per 9). Smith became much more of a Fastball/Changeup guy during 2006 after first his slider then his curveball started to fail him.
This Season: Brett Smith may be the minor's best pitcher through May 22nd, posting a 1.03 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He struck out 49 (8.48 per 9) and walked 17 (2.94 per 9) in the dominating effort. Now, he's definitely getting lucky (.185 BABIP), but there are a lot of encouraging signs with Smith right here. For the first time in his minor league career, both the curveball and changeup are working for Smith. He's still living on the corners, but Smith is commanding the ball well.
Outlook and Movement: Smith will probably spend most if not all of 2006 with Trenton. He's not as good of a pitcher as Alan Horne despite the flashy ERA, and doesn't have organizational seniority over Jones. He's due for a big "ERA correction" (as Fabian McNally of RLYW would say) soon. That doesn't mean that his dominance is meaningless, but it's just not as good as it appears. Smith was considered a potential fast riser when he was drafted, so if the Yankee pitching situation were a bit worse he would probably be in Chase Wright's position right now.
Ranking: Smith seems like a great option as a replacement level pitcher for the Yankees in the future. He's healthy, effective, and well rounded. He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many. He has no obvious weaknesses. If Smith can continue to work the breaking pitches back to his repetoire, he'll be average or better in the major leagues. Brett won't be anything flashy in the major leagues, but he'll get things done. He'll be a great trade piece in the middle of 2008 for the Yankees: expendable, but valuable.
Next up: #25 Daniel McCutchen
