Written by Greg Fertel
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18 March 2007
Tyler Clippard has put up the statistics of an ace in the minor leagues. He has moved consistently from level to level at a very young age. But Tyler Clippard has consistently been rated in the 125 range when the top prospects in baseball are ranked. His performance would indicate a top-50 rating. What's wrong? Let's take a look.
Health: Tyler Clippard is as healthy as you could hope for a minor league pitcher to be. He has not missed a start since he was drafted. He has consistently posted high workloads, but without being overworked. 155 innings in 2004 at age 19. 148 at 20. 166 at 21. Clippard's young arm has been eased in to full time workloads with grand success.
Age: Drafted in 2003, Clippard was not put on the fast track toward the majors by any means. He has climbed one minor league level every year. Of his entire draft class of RHPs, only a handful are farther along than Clippard. His performance looks a lot stronger when age is taken in to consideration.
Strikeout Rates: Since he started playing full-season minor league baseball in 2004, Clippard has strukc out 501 batters. This leads the minor leagues over that time period. His career rate is 9.77 per 9, a rate which has remained remarkably consistent throughout his career. He struck out 8.76 per 9 in A ball, 10.32 per 9 in Tampa, and 9.47 per 9 in Trenton.
BB Rates: On top of his strikeout ability, Clippard has superb control. His career BB/9 is 2.21 in the minor leagues, or just a tick below Hughes. There is some cause to be concerned here. In 2006, Clippard posted a 2.98 ERA at Trenton against more advanced hitters. His BB rate has declined every year, going from 1.03 per 9 in the GCL to 1.93 per 9 to 2.08 to 2.98. As hitters become more advanced, Clippard is forced to throw more pitches out of the strike zone. That walk rate is by no means poor, but if it climbs higher, Clippard's skillset may look a lot less menacing.
HR Rates: Clippard has never been too stingey with the home run. His career rate of 0.76 has been consistent throughout his career. This isn't a terrible rate, but will translate in to below average run prevention in the majors. It's not a killer, but he has to keep his baserunners under control if he's going to allow a lot of home runs. Guys like Dan Haren are fine despite the HRs.
Fastball Velocity: Tyler Clippard throws 89-91 on most days. Sometimes he tops out at 92, and sometimes he tops out at 88-89. There are plenty of major league pitchers who throw 91-92. However, there aren't a ton of aces. Still, no none expects Clippard to be an ace. Yeah, sometimes he'll get rocked when he throws 88, but that is not the norm. There is concern here, but not enough to deserve the "#5 starter at best" label from various pundits.
Body Type: Clippard is a tall, thin guy. He is a lanky 6'3", 200 lbs. He has put on weight in two straight offseasons, but has not increased his velocity. It's not completely unreasonable to expect higher velocities in the future, but I wouldn't bet on it. His delivery looks effortless, which helps contribute to his ability to stay health.
Secondary Repetoire: Clippard sports two plus pitches: a changeup and a curveball. The curveball is a little bit better, and he uses it to get his strikeouts. He can throw it with two different velocities, which helps him K so many. His changeup really compliments his fastball well, helping him survive despite the velocity. Clippard isn't a backwards pitcher, but he will often lead off with a pitch other than his fastball.
There you go. I think that Clippard is capable of posting 3.80-4.20 ERA seasons while eating a lot of innings in the majors. I think an above average walk rate and below average home run rates will keep him away from stardom, but he is significantly better than you'd think if you asked Baseball America. The health record at such young ages is very encouraging. I honestly don't understand how people can keep the
Milb strikeout leader over the past 3 seasons off their top-100 lists, and people are going to be proved wrong very soon. He didn't strike out 500 batters in 3 years by accident. Once Hughes leaves AAA, Clippard will be the story of the year for the new Yankee fans in Scranton.
Next Up: I talk about age. Going to be really busy this week.
