Written by Greg Fertel
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27 March 2007
The rumor going around right now is that James Brent Cox has undergone Tommy John Surgery and will miss the 2007 season. I've always been a huge Cox fan, and as a result much more disappointed than the news about Melancon and Garcia.
Cox was on track to become a top second tier reliever in the major leagues. I compared him to Scot Shields. Had the Yankees needed someone to replace Kyle Farnsworth or Scott Proctor in the bullpen by July, Cox would be the choice most likely to replace their performance.
What does this mean for our immediate and long term relief future? First off, it places significantly more emphasis on the development of
Kevin Whelan.
Mark Melancon and Cox, the two leading candidates to become ace relievers in the Yankee system, are likely going to have to wait until 2009 until they can make an impact, if not later. Whelan brings 95 mph heat and our system's nastiest splitter to the table, plus 12+ per 9 strikeout rates. The problem? He has a high walk rate (not neccessarily the death blow that it can be to starting prospects), a small frame, and throws like a catcher. He's definately got some ceiling to him, but brings much more uncertainty than Cox did a few days ago.
For what it's worth, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus
loves Whelan.
Standing to gain is
T.J. Beam. I'm much higher on Beam than most. Beam is now 1st or 2nd in line for a call up if any of Farnsworth, Proctor, Vizcaino, Bruney (who I don't like, but after this spring I may be eating my words on), or
Him (I'm not going to jinx it) hit the DL. He was probably already ahead of Cox, but the Yankees are probably now more likely to stick with him if he struggles early. I think that Beam is going to impress, but if he doensn't, we're going to miss the near sure thing of Cox.
Jose Veras picked the wrong time
to find bone chips in his elbow.
Chris Britton is having a terrible spring. He has an ERA over 11 in under 6 innings, which doesn't include getting rocked in a few minor league appearances. I'm betting that he - with little experience above A+ before his callup last year - has moved behind Beam in the depth charts. Unless there is something physically wrong with his delivery or health, I'm not a big fan of that move (He was better than anyone in the Yankee bullpen but Proctor or Rivera last year), but I can understand it.
I'm tempted to say that Cox's surgery may prompt the Yankees to be more willing to convert
Chase Wright or
Humberto Sanchez to the bullpen. Sanchez is already shut down with injury problems, and Wright may already be a better option in the MLB bullpen to shut down lefties than the Yankees currently have. Wright puts up huge strikeout and groundball numbers against lefties, but his control suffers when he attacks right handed hitters. My theory is that the Yankees want him to start to get him seeing the largest number of batters in the quickest period of time, in order to prepare him for a 2007 MLB debut in August. But hey, I'm weird.
Sanchez? Your guess is as good as mine. He's injured... again. He's always injured. Will the bullpen switch help him? Who knows. I think that it's a bad idea, but he's got so much talent that I'd prefer to keep trying him in the rotation.
Cox is testament to how fragile pitching is in baseball. We all knew that Garcia and Melancon were injury risks, so their surgeries didn't surprise us. But Cox? He just broke his hand! His delivery is as clean as they come. This shocked me.
Next Up: Your guess is as good as mine. B/C suggested I talk about the incoming GCL hitters, which may just happen. There are two problems though. First off, we won't know who half of the GCL Yanks are until the draft, and second we don't know which Latin American prospects are heading for Florida and which are heading for Staten Island.
