Written by Greg Fertel
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13 March 2007
Hughes has struggled this spring. He's having trouble locating all his pitches. He has looked nervous and overmatched. I'm here to tell you not to worry about it. However, lots of voices have begun to question their faith in baseball's top pitching prospect. Maybe I can calm their fears.
Steve Lombardi, author of WasWatching.com, recently did
an interesting little article on top pitching prospects. From 1995-2000, he lists out the top prospects in the game. The #1 pitchers during that time were Kip Wells, Rick Ankiel, Brad Penny, Eric Gagne and Matt Riley.
First, we need to start off with the eternal caveat of evaluating prospects. Baseball is a game about failure, and every game that a prospect participates in is a chance for that failure. No where in sports do we see attrition like we see in minor league pitchers. Their future success is incredibly difficult to predict. Prospect pundits like myself have a really tough job to sort through things. That said, I don't think that we are going to be wrong about Hughes.
There are warning signs for a prospect who will flop. In fact, there are eight, at least in my book. Health, Age, Strikout Rates, BB Rates, HR Rates, Fastball velocity, body type, and secondary repetoire.
Health - If you believe that Hughes has a problem, the only place where you might have the slightest fear is here. Phil Hughes was put on very short leashes for the first few years of his career. The Yankees barely let him throw after he was drafting, sitting him down for a minor toe injury. In 2005, the Yankees saw that he was dominating A ball hitters and decided to hold him down for very mild soreness in his shoulder. Despite not showing a glint of health problems, the Yankees put him on a 5 inning leash mid way through the season. I see this as a plus, but some have been worried about Hughes' durability and inexperience throwing 100 pitches. Hughes has one of the cleanest, most fluid motions that you're going to see, so that is not a concern.
Age - Phil Hughes has time and again been one of the youngest performers at every level that he has played. When you consider this, his numbers look even more menacing.
Strikeout Rates - Hughes posts K rates that are very high, though not astronomically high. His career K rate is 10.21 per 9, including 10.71 at AA last year. I wouldn't bet on Hughes posting crazy Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Schilling K rates, but he should be near the top of the K standings every year. There certainly is no area for concern here, though if anything is going to put a cap on Phil's astronomical ceiling, this is it.
BB Rates - Want to be concerned about Homer Bailey? Look no further than his career 4.07 BB/9 rate, including 3.71 per 9 at AA. Remember that list from Steve? Kip Wells had a BB rate near 4.00 (and a AA K rate under 6.00 per 9) . Remember Matt Riley? Probably not, but he had very inconsistent control. Hughes, barring injury, is set to become some sort of major league starting pitcher at bare minimum soley from his skill at getting the ball over the plate. His career BB/9 is 2.05, including 2.48 at Trenton this year at such a young age. That is roughly in line with Mike Mussina. This is really going to help Hughes eat innings in future.
HR Rates - Sometimes prospects just hang too many sliders, and eventually major league hitters make them pay. Brad Penny had HR problems, which eventually surfaced in the majors. Of course, Penny was derailed due to injury, but the HRs didn't hurt. I haven't checked this, but I'd wager that Hughes is the best minor league starting pitcher at preventing home runs in the game. In 237 minor league innings, he has allowed 6 home runs, half of which were in his first few games at AA. This just doesn't extend to home runs either. Hughes posted a 1.58 GO/FO ratio at Trenton last season, which is just another method to his repetoire. Hughes has a career 5.69 H/9 rate, which is the lowest of any starter that I've ever seen. When Hughes is on,
nothing gets hit hard.
Fastball Velocity - Sometimes a guy like Yusmero Petit will come along and post really good numbers... while fooling hitters with a 90 mph fastball. By no means does this mean that every pitcher has to throw 95 - guys like Petit and Clippard (or Ian Kennedy) make the bigs all the time. Guys like Moose and Maddux have made great careers for themselves. However, sometimes there is no better substitute than heat. However, even a guy like Petit showed the other warning signs! I plan on writing a little article on Petit, Clippard, Kennedy, and other pitchers like him sometime this weekend, so I'll hold my tongue. Hughes throws genuine heat - clocking at 93-94 most of the time and dialing it up to 97 when he needs to. He's no Joel Zumaya.
Body Type - Remember Petit? He's 6'0" and 200 pounds. Hughes has the perfect pitcher's body, with big strong legs and a huge frame. He's 6'5" and 220 lbs of muscle. His body can certainly stand up to big workloads, which keeps the risk on a guy like Tim Lincecum (5'10") very high.
Secondary Repetoire - A lot of guys dominate the minors with a nice little fastball and a strikeout breaking ball, but major league hitters adjust very quickly. Real pitchers need a third pitch. Hughes has his two fastballs (his 2-seamer, though not mentioned often, is very good) and his outstanding curveball. He has an above average changeup that is flawed only in the sense that it can't hold a candle to his other pitches. Hughes needs a few more months to make it a third plus pitch. He also is planning on bringing back his slider, which was a plus pitch when he was drafted. There should be no concerns here.
There you go. Phil Hughes is no Mike Riley or Kip Wells. He is special in that he has no weakness. There are no warning flags. Of the list of top pitching prospects, Rick Ankiel may be the most like Hughes. They posted similar minor league numbers at similar ages, though Hughes was a bit better with walks and Ankiel with strikeouts. Ankiel had tossed only 2.92 BB/9 at AA, but saw his walk rate balloon to 4.69 per 9 at AAA. He was rushed to the majors, and was worked to death. He pitched like an ace before going down with an injury with ruined his career.
The other great comparison for Hughes is Mark Prior. They have similar repetoires, velocity, control and body types. Prior may have been baseball's best pitcher before Dusty Baker worked him to death with 115+ pitch outings. We all know what happened. One of the few things that Joe Torre did right in the past few seasons was limiting Chien-Ming Wang's workload. Rarely has Wang thrown over 110 pitches, and he has transformed from a fragile minor league starter to a major league horse.
Next Up: I'm crazy busy right now, but I hope to finish my article on park contexts on Thursday. I want to get as much up as possible this weekend, because next week will be the busiest week of my life.
