Written by Greg Fertel
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09 March 2007
Hitters are much easier to evaluate than pitchers. Hitters follow a typical development curve, where they gradually gain power and discipline until their prime years at 26-28, and then slowly lose speed and decline in to their 30s. There are exceptions, but hitters tend to be incredibly predictable. In addition, I find scouting reporters to be borderline irrelevant with a hitting prospect, except when evaluating the defensive side of the game. They are more important for lower-level prospects without a statistical pedigree, but generally offer information that is better substantiated by statistical data.
Control of the Strike Zone
As I said with pitchers, every single baseball player in the game is defined by their ability to manipulate the strike zone. The best indication of this trait is a hitter's K/BB ratio. A good K/BB ratio does a few things for me. First off, from a purely direct effect perspective, they make less outs. A batter who puts balls in play will make fewer outs than if they Ked, and a batter who walks avoids the outs entirely. These are valuable skills on their base level. However, the special thing about a K/BB ratio for a prospect is that it is a great indicator of future success.
Players who control the strike zone can manipulate it in their favor to get in to favorable counts. The Hardball Times did
a series of articles on what this ability does for a player. This is important for future success because it very often foretells a player's ability to hit for power. This is why a lot of people are getting excited over Melky Cabrera. 21 year-olds in the majors just don't post 59/56 K/BB ratios. His ability to manipulate the strike zone is only going to get better, resulting in more 2-1, 3-1, and 3-0 counts, resulting in more pitches for Melky to drive. All but the best hitters must force the pitcher to give them something to hit with authority if they are going to do so.
The ability to get on base
I'm seperating this from the K/BB ratio despite their obvious relation. The most fundamental and essential skill to a hitter in baseball is the ability to not make an out. Some players do this by hitting .330, and some do it by drawing 100 walks a season, but it is what makes a hitter. A hitter who does not overpower a minor league level will post a similar OBP (sans park and league effects) to what can be expected of him in the majors. Sometimes a hitter will just outmatch a level, and will inflate his numbers. Walk-drive OBPs translate much easier to the majors than batting average driven ones, for a few reasons. First off, batting averages are much more luck dependent, as a few more balls may fall in for hits on season. Second, minor league defenses are often significantly worse than major league ones, and as a result in many leagues we see unusually high BABIPs.
Power
This is pretty simple. I like Slg%. Minor league Slg%s, even for top prospects, can very often be much lower than major league ones. This is for a few reasons. First off, there are many (particularly in the Yankee system) killer pitchers parks in the minors. Second, power is the last skill to develop, around ages 23-25, and good prospects are usually in the minors by that time. Common sense for the most part. A good baseball player just can't slug .310 (*cough Gardner cough*)
Defense
It's really difficult to judge a minor league player by his defense. You can listen to what the scouts say - but the scouts opinion is usually very flawed. Scouts will tell you what they believe a prospect's defensive potential is - not necessarily how he is playing at this very second. Marcos Vechionacci is a great example of this. Scouts will tell you that he's the next Eric Chavez with a sprinkling of Scott Rolen on defense. The problem? 'Nacci isn't there yet. He's very streaky and inconsistent. Sometimes he'll look like Eric Chavez, but sometimes he'll look like Alex Rodriguez. This is a very typical problem for minor leaguers.
For this reason, I tend to generalize players on defense in to a few different categories. First off, players who display legit defensive wizardry. I'm talking about guys like Ramiro Pena, Alberto Gonzalez or Tim Battle. These guys could win gold gloves at their position right now. The second category are players who either have good defensive potential or have settled in comfortably at their position. These are guys like Brett Gardner, Cody Ehlers, Jose Tabata, Marcos Vechionacci, or Bronson Sardinha. These guys may or may not be plus defenders, but at the very least they have settled in to a position and have no need to be shifted. The third category are guys in flux with their position. Guys like Eric Duncan,
Jesus Montero, Mitch Hilligoss or Gerardo Rodriguez. These are guys who may not be poor defenders in the future, but right now are in the process of shifting positions or who may need to shift positions in the future. The Yankees, more than most organizations, don't have a whole lot of these kinds of prospects (because we don't draft tons of clunky power hitters).
Speed
I've never cared a whole lot about the stolen base. What I do like to do is seperate major base stealers in to two different categories. I see a guy like Mario Holmann, Austin Jackson, Josa Tabata, Tim Battle, or Reegie Corona as "fast guys who sometime steal bases". These guys can be valued to a team - if they can steal over 75% of the time. They will sometimes get in to scoring position. However, I don't really see their ability to steal bases as a major weapon. I do think that a few players - Brett Gardner, Abraham Almonte, and Justin Christian - have game-changing speed that enables them to "steal at will". These are guys who can steal when everyone knows it's coming. I can see these 60+ stolen base threats as major weapons that can really help the major league team on the basis of speed [although they still have to get on base!].
Swing/Scouting/Makeup/Etc
I generally believe that a player's super-smooth-sweet-swing will show up in his performance, and generally don't care too much about it otherwise. A guy like Mitch Hilligoss may be lauded for his swing, but until he actually translates that it in success at the plate, I don't care too much. An exception is a prospect like Jose Tabata, who everyone pretty much agrees has the quick hands of a superstar. In terms of makeup, as long as a player isn't going around spitting in umpire's faces, I'm not too concerned. Players out of the Yankee farm tend to be very well disciplined and prepared for the major leagues with the Yankees.
Next Up: The effects of Yankee minor league ballparks and leagues. That should be up tonight. After that, I'm probably going to write some sort of prospect profile.
