Written by Greg Fertel
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15 March 2007
I'm going to put off the two articles that I talked about yesterday to address the issue of the day in Yankee camp. Jeff Karstens is dominating.
Karstens came in to camp with a very slim chance at the Yankee's longman position. Darrell Rasner had the edge in seniority and in terms of need (he's on his last option year). Jeff Karstens,
after adding 15 pounds of muscle during the offseason, has eliminated the cutter from his repetoire and found it easier to throw at his maximum velocity of around 90-91.
Karstens has dominated spring training. He has pitched 9 innings, allowing five hits and striking out nine. He has allowed no walks and no runs. He has allowed just two doubles, and a 10-8 GO/FO ratio, which is a big improvement over his traditionally radical GO/FO splits (he usually has twice the FOs than GOs, his big weakness).
How good could he be? Well, before the season I compared Karstens to Rodrigo Lopez. I've been rethinking that and I think that Karstens can be a little bit better. What are his pro's and cons? Well, I'll look back to my Phil Hughes analysis.
Health - Jeff Karstens is a model of health. He did not miss a start in 2005 or 2006. He pitched 169 innings in 2005 and 190.1 in 2006. He has no health concerns.
Age - Karstens will be 24 years old for the entirety of the minor league season. He is just three years removed from his draft and has two option years left. He's got plenty of time to break in to the major leagues if he does not make the team this spring.
Strikeout Rates - Karstens has above average minor league numbers. He has a career 7.43 per 9 overall, including 8.15 at Trenton last year. Remember that MLB callup where he posted a 3.80 ERA? Karstens struck out just 3.37 per 9 in 42.2 innings, which is something he absolutely needs to change if he is going to have success. In fact, above AA this year, he pitched 116.1 innings and struck out just 64 - or 4.96 per 9. Yeah, that worries me.
BB Rates - Karstens has always had good control, which is part of the reason why he has eaten a lot of innings in the minors. His career minor league BB/9 is 2.29. Last season, he walked 55 in those 190.1 innings, or 2.60 per 9. There is no doubt in my mind that Karstens can maintain that walk rate in the majors.
HR Rates - Another weakness. Karstens sports a 0.72 K per 9 rate in the minor leagues. For this reason, he has consistently posted ERAs in the low 4s, but has trouble doing better. In those 116.1 innings above AA this year, Karstens allowed 15 home runs. That isn't too high to function, but it is too high to make him a plus pitcher.
Fastball Velocity - Why does Karstens give up a lot of HR? Because he throws 91. He might be able to keep that 91 mph fastball under better command this season if the 15 pounds of weight he added mean anything. When Karstens got tired last year he would slip in to the 86-87 range, which is downright slow. 91 is fine, 87 is not.
Body Type - Karstens is a tall, thin guy. The added weight will help him with his endurance. He really started to tire late in to games. He's still very lean at 190 lbs and 6'3", but he's really out of the "leanness danger zone". There is still the outside possibility that Karstens can add even more weight, but don't count on a whole lot of fastball improvement.
Secondary Repetoire - Sheer diversity is Karsten's specialty. Karstens does not have a dominating pitch. He sports an average fastball, curveball, and slider. His best pitch is an above average changeup (probably a 55 pitch on the 20-80 scale), which is where he generates a lot of his weak fly outs.
The Yankees have always been higher on Karstens than any of the prospect community. They drafted him in the 17th round. They did not lose faith in him after his horrible AAA debut last season, pitching 34.2 innings in 7 starts and posting an ERA of 7.10. Instead, something clicked when he was sent back to AA and he pitched 74 innings of 2.31 ERA ball and got promoted back to AAA. There he pitched another 39 innings there with a 1.84 ERA, and then did his thing in the major leagues.
Although I am impressed by his turnaround, I don't think that it is wholely genuine. I like Karstens - I rated him our #18 prospect - but I can't see him really being more than a 4.50 ERA pitcher with a K and HR rates like that. But that's not a bad thing!
The average AL 5th starter had an ERA over 6.00 last year. Karstens has a lot of value because instead of Aaron Small and Sidney Ponson pitching games, he actually gives us a chance to win. He may be better than Igawa or Pavano. I am not ready to look to a 9 spring training innings as a sign of a different approach, but it's still encouraging.
I'm fine with Karstens starting the year as our 6th starter. Give Pavano and Igawa - who neither are cheap nor can be sent to the minors - a chance to succeed. If Karstens goes ahead and pitches 40 good innings in the long man spot by May, we are free to trade away Pavano and put Karstens in the rotation. If Pavano sucks, we still have to pay him, but Karstens can switch spots with him. The Red Sox learned last season why you keep your starting pitching depth. Weird stuff happens. The baseball Gods are not forgiving.
