Written by Greg Fertel
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19 June 2007
- Age: 18 (19 in August)
- Height: 5'11"
- Weight: 200 lbs
- Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in 2005
- Position: Outfielder
- Bats: Right
Scouting Report: Tabata's extremely quick wrists and hands have drawn comparisons to Manny Ramirez. He generates amazing bat speed and profiles as a very high average hitter. He hasn't shown much power yet, but some power should come eventually. He's not going to hit 40 home runs, but he should sit in the 20s pretty comfortably. He has good plate discipline when he's hitting well. He's a good athlete with decent speed. On the bases, he steals bases more out of good instincts than blinding speed, but should steal a decent amount in the majors. In the field, he has plus range for a corner outfielder and may be able to hold down center while he's young. His arm is strong for a left fielder and very solid for a right fielder.
History: The Yankees signed Tabata at the tender age of 16 and sent him to the Gulf Coast League immediately. He was excellent on the 2005 championship GCL Yankees, hitting .314/.382/.417 in 44 games with 22 stolen bases, 15 walks, and 14 strikeouts, despite not turning 17 until August. He spent 2005 with Charleston, where he hit .298/.377/.420 despite being the youngest hitter in the league and spending most of the 2nd half of the season hampered by a debilitating wrist injury. Tabata hit .321/.432/.450 his first three months, but fell off after. The Yankees sent him to Tampa to begin 2007.
This Season: Tabata has held his ground in the relentless Florida State League, batting .300/.367/.365 with 40 strikeouts and 20 walks in 56 games. He's missed time with several injuries, including the same wrist being sore. Despite struggling to hit for power, the season so far should be considered successful for Tabata. These are the first truly advanced pitchers that he's faced, and the Florida State League depresses offense by as much as 20%. He's been very streaky, but even when he has been hot he has not hit much more than singles.
Outlook and Movement: Tabata will probably spend the rest of the season at Trenton. He's had a ton of minor league experience for his age, but he's still very, very young and stands to gain in the Florida State League. I expect the Yankees will keep him close to the majority of their coaching staff in Tampa, although he could probably hold his own at AA. He'll move up to AA next year and from there, he could make the major leagues very quickly. I'd expect Tabata to see his first major league time sometime while he is 20 years old, either in September of 2008 or early in 2009. He should secure a full-time starting spot by the end of 2009. We might not see the best that Tabata has to offer (read: power) for a few years, but he'll be productive in the major leagues while he develops as a hitter.
Ranking: I really wanted to rank Tabata above Chamberlain, but I couldn't. He's farther out and I'm not sure what his true ceiling is. There are really three different possibilities. Tabata could hit 15 HR a year, 25 HR a year, or 35 or more HR per year. Either way, he'll hit for a high batting average and take his walks, but he hasn't clued us off to his power potential right now. He seems to be able to hit singles at will (.366 RISP this year, .347 last year, .375 in 2005), but has been accused of "dogging it" and seeming unconcerned at times. My theory is that Tabata needs to be challenged. If I am the Yankees, I take a look at him for the last month of 2007 in Trenton, to see how he responds to the new level. I'm not sure if he has an attitude problem or not. I'm not going to speculate from a thousand miles away. He's still developing as an athlete and a body, so his true potential is still shielded by age. His power will probably determine his future. Will he become the next Bernie Williams? Bobby Abreu? Brian Giles? All are possible, and we won't know the answer for a long time.
