Written by Greg Fertel
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16 June 2007
- Age: 22
- Height: 6'3"
- Weight: 205 lbs
- Acquired: Drafted 1st Round in 2003 out of High School
- Position: 1st base
- Bats: Left
Scouting Report: Duncan has power. Since he was drafted, Duncan has always drawn praise for his ability to hit to the opposite field. If the Yankees had left Duncan alone, he would have profiled as a decent little 20 HR, 35+ double hitter. However, they decided to try and get more power out of him, adjusting his swing to pull more balls. The results haven't been great, but Duncan has at the same time improved upon his already strong discipline and recognition skills. He's making more contact His defense at 1st is passable, but isn't going to draw a lot of praise.
History: The Yankees grabbed Duncan in the 1st round in 2003, and he quickly became the top prospect in a pretty barren farm system. He was promoted quickly through the A ball leagues, hitting .258/.357/.473 in 2004 between Battle Creek and Tampa. Duncan was pushed to Trenton at the tender age of 20, where he hit a solid .235/.326/.408, with 136 strikeouts in 126 games. He was the Arizona Fall League's MVP that fall, which gave the Yankees reason to push him to AAA Columbus, where he flopped, hitting .209/.279/.255. He was demoted to Trenton, where he hit .248/.355/.480 despite suffering from crippling back problems.
This Season: The Yankees, seeing how Duncan hit .257/.358/.529 and .272/.367/.534 despite below average BABIPs when he was healthy at Trenton, sent him to Scranton to start the season. Duncan was quickly hit by a pitch on his thumb hitting the disabled list twice and suffering at the plate throughout the whole season. The overall batting line is .250/.346/.376 with an excellent 26/23 K/BB ratio in 45 games. To put that in perspective, that would be equal to roughly 90 strikeouts and 80 walks over a full major league season. Duncan has cut down on his strikeouts and kept steady with his walks for three straight seasons - a sign that he's developing.
Outlook and Movement: We're all waiting for Duncan's big break out that propels him to the major leagues. The Yankees definitely need it some time soon. If Jason Giambi is going to miss the rest of the season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Duncan in New York by the end of the summer. Once he gets healthy, the power will come. I could be wrong and he might not break out, but I think that the odds are in his favor.
Ranking: One reader accused me of trying to fight her for Duncan's hand in marriage. Now, while Eric and I have a relationship that is strictly business, I like what I see. A lot of people are writing him off, and I don't think that is wise. He doesn't turn 23 until December and has raked when healthy in the high minors. Now, I'm not sure if Duncan is going to slug .530 against major league pitchers, but I do think that he has a well-rounded approach to the plate that will translate well to more advanced pitchers. He's making good contact, has power to all fields, and takes a good amount of walks. Is a potential .270/.370/.500 hitter at 1st base the most exciting prospect in the world? Nope. But I'll take that in the major leagues over Miguel Cairo any day.
Next up: Alan Horne
