Written by Greg Fertel
|
16 June 2007
- Age: 24
- Height: 6'4"
- Weight: 195 lbs
- Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round in 2005 out Florida State
- Position: Starting Pitcher
- Throws: Right
Scouting Report: Horne has a power arm, throwing 93-95 mph with his 4-seam fastball. On top of that, Horne posses a plus power curveball. He also throws an effective slider and changeup. He's always had decent command of his fastball, but has only recently been able to throw his other pitches for strikes, which has been the catalyst of his success this year. Horne has a power body that fits his style. He's a smart guy who knows how to use his arsenal to it's fullest.
History: Horne was ranked by some as the top high school pitcher in the 2001 draft, but fell to the Cleveland Indians at #27 due to signability concerns. He opted for college and went to Mississippi, where he pitched well enough to be ranked among the top sophomores in the nation. Then, disaster happened. Horne blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2003, cutting him out of what could have been a high 1st round draft pick. He transfered to Florida and began to work his way back. Word spread around that he was throwing low 90s to high 80s, and his stock fell. By the time the 2005 draft rolled along, the still-recovering Horne fell to the 11th round. The Yankees picked him up, offered him a 6-figure, and he signed after the minor league season had begun. He spent all of 2006 in Tampa, where he regained his velocity but not his control. His final line was 125 2/3 innings, 126 K, 63 BB, and a 4.84 ERA. Horne steadily improved his control from 5.76 BB/9 in April to 2.52 BB/9 in August. Horne was sent to Trenton to begin 2007.
The Season: Horne has been pretty amazing down in Trenton this season. His excellent line -75 2/3 innings, 88 Ks (10.5 per 9), 21 BB (2.48 per 9), 2 HR (0.24 per 9) allowed and a 2.50 ERA - only tells half the story. In addition to all of that, Horne has been let down by either lady luck or his defense. His BABIP is a sky-high .353 - meaning that too many balls are falling in for hits. The average BABIP for the Eastern League is about .300, and for a pitcher like Horne it's not uncommon to see BABIPs lower than .270. What does that mean? Well, batters are hitting .251/.312/.337 off him - but in reality they could be hitting .190/.250/.250 with average luck. His BABIP is 3rd highest in the Eastern League, his K% is 2nd highest, his FIP is 2nd best, and his ground ball rate is well above average. Basically, Horne has been a lot better than his great ERA suggests.
Outlook and Movement: Horne has been so consistent this season that it's hard to see him in Trenton for much longer. The Thunder have 6 starters in it's rotation right now, and someone has to go. It's probably either Horne, Brett Smith, or Jason Jones. Either way, Horne isn't far from the major leagues. If Kei Igawa wasn't around, he'd probably be considered for Tyler Clippard's spot in the major league rotation right now. He'll be ready by next year, but the Yankees will probably leave him in AAA (with half of the other top-10 prospects on my list) and wait for a major league injury to happen. He'll see the bigs sometime that season.
Ranking: A ton of teams would love to have Horne as their top pitching prospect. He doesn't quite have the top-5 arm that he used to, but he's still a very hard thrower with quality offspeed stuff. The real difference this season is that he's been able to locate all of his secondary pitches fairly well within the strike zone. He took the better part of three years to really recover from Tommy John, but sometimes that happens. Some guys heal slower than others. It's easy to forget that Horne was valued so highly back in 2001. I made the mistake of writing him off as a wild fireballer when I ranked him just #30 out of 30 last fall. I'd rank him even higher if I wasn't so confused by the light-hitting Eastern League this season. He's got A.J. Burnett stuff.
Next up: Jeff Marquez
