Written by Greg Fertel
|
19 June 2007
- Age: 23
- Height: 6'0"
- Weight: 185
- Acquired: Drafted 1st round in 2006 out of USC
- Position: Starting Pitcher
- Throws: Right
Scouting Report: Kennedy throws his fastball between 88-92 mph, although he's touched 94 on good days. He has recently learned a 2-seamer, which sits around 89 mph and has been effective when he uses it. His best secondary pitch is the changeup, a plus offering that he particularly outstanding command of. He has two breaking pitches: a curveball and a slider. The curve is the better pitch, but both are very good. He mostly uses the slider to give hitters another look at a different speed. Kennedy has excellent command of all his pitches, except for the 2-seamer, which he has been throwing for less than a year. He's a very savvy pitcher, setting up hitters and playing to their weaknesses. Kennedy earned a lot of praise for his mechanics before the draft. He doesn't throw with maximum effort, which is what enables his excellent command. Kennedy is capable of throwing at 94 mph, but he's most effective at 90-92.
History: Kennedy put up two of the more dominant seasons in NCAA history. In 2004 and 2005, Kennedy pitched a combined 209.2 innings. He posted a 2.70 ERA between the two years, striking out 278 and walking just 69. He was being talked about as a potential top-5 pick in the draft. We don't really know what followed. Kennedy was either hiding an injury or had "draftitis", because he was only average his third year, with a 3.90 ERA and 102 strikeouts against 32 walks in 101 2/3 innings. He signed late and only got a handful of innings in with Staten Island before being sent to the newly created Hawaiian Winter Ball league. His ERA wasn't great at 4.56, but he struck out 45 in 30 innings and most of those runs came in an 8-run game where Kennedy struggled with the brand new 2-seamer. The Yankees sent him to Tampa to start 2007.
This Season: Kennedy has been as good as you could possibly expect. He made 10 starts and 1 relief appearance with Tampa, throwing 63 innings with a 1.29 ERA, striking out 72 and walking 22. He's made 3 starts so far in Trenton, pitching 16 innings with a 3.38 ERA and a 23:4 K/BB ratio. The concern at Tampa was that Kennedy was walking too many batters, but I think that was a function of him being so dominant at that level. When a pitcher like Kennedy is so hard to hit, he can throw a ball just out of the strike zone on a 3-ball count knowing that he will manhandle the next batter in the order. I predicted that his control would improve in Trenton, where he couldn't get away with that so easily. So far, I've been right, but it's a small sample.
Outlook and Movement: Kennedy will stay at Trenton at least until the beginning of August. If he pitches well enough and there is a rotation spot, he will move up to Scranton to get his feet wet at the major league level. Kennedy was considered the most polished pitcher in the 2006 draft, and so far that's been correct. A lesser team would probably have him in the majors by now. He'll be ready by 2008, and should compete for the 5th spot in the Yankee rotation against Clippard, Marquez, Horne, Chamberlain, and the other Yankee options for the spot to begin the season. If the Yankees really need him, he could be ready by the end of this season.
Ranking: I love Ian Kennedy. He's probably my second favorite prospect in the Yankee system behind
George Kontos. He has been compared to Mike Mussina in the past. Now, they do have some differences. Mussina had a little bit more fastball (92-93 when he was young) than Kennedy (90-91 on most days) does right now, and his best pitch was the curveball. However, Kennedy's changeup is better than Moose's, and his slider might be better too. Now, there is now way to predict that Kennedy will have Mike Mussina's career, but Kennedy seems
capable of replicating his style. Pundits from Baseball America and other places have doomed Kennedy with the "#4 or 5 starter at best" label and I really think that is ridiculous. It's very rare that a right handed pitcher pitcher takes the Mussina/Maddux finesse style and make it work with a lot of success - but it does happen every once in awhile. Kennedy possesses all the skills necessary to make such a style work. The great thing about Kennedy is that while he is capable of a fairly high ceiling (let's say 220 innings of a 3.40 ERA and 200 strikeouts), he is also pretty certain to at least be a "#4 starter" (200 innings of low 4s ERA). He's a gem, and any team would love to have him as their #1 prospect, but Joba Chamberlain and Jose Tabata are very special players.
