Written by Greg Fertel | 06 June 2007

All over the internet, there have been numerous mock drafts predicting how the first round of the MLB draft is going to shake out. One thing is for sure: this draft is going to be a chaotic and surprising one, and every one of those mock drafts will be wrong. Even what was once the surest of sure things, pitcher David Price going #1 to the Devil Rays, has now been cast into doubt as the D-Rays are reportedly considering catcher Matt Wieters instead. So who should the Yankees pick? And who will be available? I will list my order of preference for guys who could be available when the Yankees pick at #30, although it is hard to predict with Boras clients because many of them are top-15 talents but could fall because of signability. 1. Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech Wieters has been a top-5 candidate for the whole season, and has performed well enough to maintain that status. A switch hitter with power and a strong arm, scouts have been drooling over Wieters, and he would make a great fit as Posada's successor, and virtually any team could use a man of his talents. However, Santa Boras has proceeded to make large bonus demands for Wieters that have been causing other teams to shy away from him. Extremely unlikely to fall, particularly if Tampa is interested at #1, but one can always dream. 2. Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (HS) A week ago, it was unthinkable that Porcello, the top high school arm in this draft, would fall out of the top 4, much less drop to #30. But Scott Boras changed that by announcing that Porcello, who has a strong commitment to North Carolina, would only sign for Josh Beckett money adjusted for inflation, which would be on the order of 9-10 million dollars. If he falls, the Tigers are reportedly interested, but might shy away if Boras is firm about his price. 3. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida Another Boras client, LaPorta has much less leverage than Wieters and Porcello because he is a senior, and does not have the option of returning to college. His power bat would be a great fit at first base to replace Giambi, and his exceptional plate discipline and polish could get him to the majors quickly. He's the first guy on this list who has a good chance of falling to the Yanks, and seems to be the most likely pick at this point. 4. Matt Harvey, RHP, Fitch (HS) Surprise surprise, another Boras client. Harvey was one of the top 2 high school pitchers entering the season, but he has not lived up to the billing so far, and has been surpassed by several other pitchers in a deep high school class. He has been dropping, and like Porcello, has a strong commitment to UNC. However, he is not demanding Beckett money as Porcello is, so he could be less likely to fall. 5. Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State Sensing a pattern here? Brackman was a preseason top 5 prospect, but the former two-sport athlete has been inconsistent, recently suffering from a tired arm. There have been rumors that he might need surgery, but if the Yankees think his health is good, his 6'10" frame and power stuff give him as much upside as any pitcher in the draft. He could be a candidate to fall into later rounds, so it might not be a bad idea to wait on him and see if he drops. Still, I would hate to pass on him only to have Boston or the Mets pop him in the sandwich round. 6. Joe Savery, LHP, Rice Savery is a talented 2-way player who has had injury problems, but when healthy, was a top-10 talent. He is a power lefty with mid-90's heat and a good curveball, but his injuries have prevented him from being overused the way many Rice starters have been, so he could be a better bet to stay healthy than Niemann, Humber and Townsend were. Savery is probably a bit of a reach here, but I don't see him available when the Yankees pick next, and there are only so many polished lefties with good enough stuff to be #2-3 starters in the bigs, and Savery, when healthy, fits the bill. And if he fails as a pitcher, he's talented enough with the bat to help the Yanks there. 7. Michael Burgess, OF, Hillsborough (HS) Burgess is probably the riskiest pick on this list, but has the highest upside of the hitters who might be available to the Yankees. Burgess' huge power potential and strong arm are attractive, but concerns about his ability to make consistent contact are cause for concern. Still, at #30, I'm all for rolling the dice on a high-upside guy if he's the best player available. He's likely to be available at the end of the 1st round, and could possibly slip into the early sandwich round if the Yanks pass on him. He is not a Boras client, and should be signable as a result. 8. JP Arencibia, C, Tennessee Arencibia is an above-average hitting catcher with power potential. He is adequate behind the plate, with room for improvement. This could be a nice safe pick, and would give Francisco Cervelli some competition for becoming the catcher of the future. He is not a Boras client, and does not seem to be a typical high-ceiling draftee, but I feel he is talented enough at a shallow position that he could be worth a first-round pick. However, if the Yanks are confident in Cervelli or are planning on moving Hilligoss to catcher, then they should probably pass on Arencibia. 9. Justin Jackson, SS, TC Roberson (SS) Another top high school talent whose stock has dropped, Jackson has 5 tool potential and is one of the best athletes in the high school class. There are some questions about his bat, but some believe that his bat is legit, and that the criticisms of the heavily scouted Jackson are more the result of shiny new toy syndrome than any major flaw in Jackson himself. While this is not a need pick, Jackson is a great athlete and would fit the Yankees' high-ceiling draft strategy. If his bat is strong enough, he is a good enough athlete to play anywhere in the field, which could be useful particularly as Jeter ages or if A-Rod opts out. 10. Jack McGeary, LHP, Roxbury Latin (HS) McGeary is supposed to be a tough sign because he is committed to Stanford. Still, if the price is right, McGeary is a polished lefty with good control, a low-90's fastball and developing breaking pitches. In a system devoid of lefties, McGeary could capably fill that dearth if he can be persuaded to break his commitment to Stanford. Just Missed: Josh Fields, Cl, Georgia. Todd Frazier, 3B, Rutgers. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas. Greg Peavey, RHP, Hudson's Bay (HS). I'm probably crazy for even hoping some of these guys will fall to the Yanks. My prediction right now is that they will pick LaPorta, and judging from my list, I will be more than happy with that. Lots more coming tomorrow, as I think EJ has some stuff up his sleeve. Also, you can listen to draft talk on mvn radio. See you tomorrow at 2, I'll be watching.  I'm psyched.

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