Written by Greg Fertel
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06 June 2007
This year's MLB Amateur draft is going to be an interesting one. As usual, the draft is hard to predict, but two factors complicate predictions even more.
1. The Boras Effect:
Superagent Scott Boras is known for being a hard-line negotiator who is determined to get the most money for his clients, even if that means sending them to Junior College or Independent Leagues. Boras represents a lot of the top talent in this year's draft, including the best high school pitcher (Rick Porcello), two of the top college hitters (Matt Wieters and Matt Laporta), one of the most highly touted high school hitters (Mike Moustakas), and a college pitcher who is probably the biggest risk but also has the biggest upside (
Andrew Brackman). Boras clients tend to drop in the draft, and can often be had lower in the first round relative to their talent level, provided that the team that drafted them is willing to pay what Boras demands. The Yankees certainly benefit from the Boras Effect, which could give them a chance to draft talented players who would not be there for them otherwise.
2. New Draft Rules
In large part because of the Boras Effect, the MLB changed some rules in the draft that would attempt to elminate some of the leverage that players would gain by holding out and not signing until late. The new August 15 signing deadline would try to accomplish that by preventing players from holding out as long, so they are forced to sign at a set date (as opposed to just sometime before the next draft). This puts pressure on teams to sign their players quickly, but also on the agents to work out a deal quickly or their client will have to return to the draft. Also new is a different compensation system for teams who do not sign their first-round picks. Instead of receiving a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds), the team will receive a first round pick one slot behind where the player was drafted (for example, if a team fails to sign the #1 overall pick, they will receive the #2 pick in the next year's draft). This increases the leverage of the team, because they have less to lose if the player does not sign. The goal of these changes is clearly to prevent more talented players from dropping due to signability, and give small-market teams more leverage in their negotiations, which would allow them to consider drafting Boras clients.
