Written by Greg Fertel | 05 February 2007

by request...

Ian Kennedy | RHP

Background A product of the same Southern California high school that produced former Rockies’ prospect Ian Stewart, Kennedy put himself on the map with a junior year that featured 13 wins, a 0.38 ERA (tops in the nation), 168 K’s (again, tops in the nation) and MVP honors from the Orange County Register and Garden Grove League. Despite that success, Kennedy tumbled to the 14th round of the 2003 draft because of a strong commitment to the University of Southern California. Kennedy ultimately made good on his commitment, reportedly turning down a 6-figure bonus from the Cardinals in the process. Kennedy started his college career off with a bang, throwing 5 innings of 1 hit, 8 K ball against Long Beach State’s Jered Weaver, winner of the Golden Spikes award (the college baseball equivalent of the Heisman), in his first NCAA start. He was dominant as true freshman, going 7-2 (he threw in 1 save for good measure) with a 2.91 ERA in 16 games (15 starts). His impressive debut earned him All-Pac-10 honors, and he was named to Baseball America’s Midseason All-American team. Kennedy had succeeded current Cardinals’ pitcher Anthony Reyes as the Trojans’ ace. As a sophomore, Kennedy was as close to perfect as a pitcher can be. A preseason third team All-American, he threw 117 innings spread over 18 games (17 starts), allowing only 85 hits (6.54 Hper9), 38 walks (2.92 BBper9), while striking out 158 (12.15 Kper9) with a 12-3 record (2.54 ERA). He dominated within his conference (7-1, 2.12 ERA, .200 BAA vs the Pac-10) and he dominated the nation’s other top pitchers, handed losses to Arizona’s John Meloan (first L in 18 career starts), Fullerton’s Ricky Romero (co-hero of the Titans CWS run the previous year), Long Beach State’s Cesar Ramos (winningest lefty in Dirtbag history), and Washington’s Tim Lincecum (career high 13 K in 6.2 IP vs the Huskies). Kennedy was named the Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year, and had vaulted himself into consideration for the top overall pick in the 2006 draft. Kennedy headed into his junior year as a consensus first team All-American amidst speculation that he may challenge fellow USC product Mark Prior for the moniker of “Best College Pitcher Ever,” Kennedy had a sub-par (by his standards) junior year. Despite what seems to be widespread belief that Kennedy sucked as a junior, he did strikeout more than a batter an inning (102 K in 101.2 IP), gave up fewer hits than innings pitched (100 H allowed), and cut his HR rate allowed by nearly 25% (.46 HRper9 in 2005, .34 in 206). His ERA (3.90) and win-loss record (5-7) reflect mediocrity, but the fact is Kennedy was a very good NCAA pitcher in 2006. With a gaudy track record at one of college baseball’s top programs, Kennedy became the Yanks first selection in the 2006 draft. He agreed to a well-above slot deal that paid him $2.25M outright, though the deal did not become official until MLB finished trying to talk the Yanks out of it. Pro Debut Because he signed somewhat late, Kennedy was only able to appear in 2 games for the Short Season Staten Island Yanks (1 regular season start, 1 playoff start), where he pitched just fine. In an effort to make up for lost time, the Yanks sent Kennedy to the reborn Hawaii Winter Baseball League, where he went 0-2, 4.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 30.1 IP. His strikeout rate (13.35 Kper9) was better than that of Joba Chamberlain (10.99), his more heralded teammate. Strengths Kennedy has all the all the intangibles. His polish is remarkable even for a college pitcher coming from a major program, his baseball acumen and pitching aptitude are valuable assets, and he does an excellent job of taking to instruction. His command is outstanding, he keeps all of his pitches in the bottom third of the zone, and he delivers all of his pitches from the same arm slot with the same arm speed. He does a good job of repeating his simple delivery, which helps his control even more. The opposite of a high-risk/high-reward draft pick, Kennedy is the safest a bet to be a productive big league pitcher that’s come out of the draft in quite some time. Weaknesses All of Kennedy’s pitches regressed last year. His curve looped instead of biting, and his change floated instead of sinking. His fastball dropped from 92-93 to 89-91, and his slider lost some break. Kennedy’s biggest problem in 2006 was that he had trouble putting hitters away with 2 strikes. He still attacked them, but his newfound lack of a put-away pitch hurt him as he gave up hits on pitches that used to induce swings-and-misses.Kennedy also has a small frame (generously listed a 6’0”, 190 lbs) that may not hold up well over a full season, but he has been durable so far during his career. 2007 Outlook Kennedy is his own worst enemy. He set such high standards for himself as a sophomore that, looking back on it, failure seemed inevitable. He’ll front High-A Tampa’s rotation to start 2007, and a midseason promotion to Double-A Trenton seems to be a foregone conclusion. If pitching guru Nardi Contreras can work the same magic with Kennedy that he did with Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances (amongst others), Kennedy will rocket up the ladder and see some big league time late in 2007. Regardless, he should be the third 2007 draftee to reach the majors behind Andrew Miller (whose September call up was the result of a clause in his contract) and Tim Lincecum (who’s just that awesome). Prospect Grade: B (if he gets his old stuff back, A-)

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