Written by Greg Fertel
|
25 February 2008
Ok, so
in my attempt to develop some sort of repeatable, standardized grading system, I'd like to build some precedent for how one prospect is rated. So, I'm going to play around with some grades and ratings, and I'd like to know how you guys feel.
First, to address some concerns brought up in the comments. Grades will fluctuate year to year - I don't claim to have a magical crystal ball. Eric Duncan would have been a 7.0 B when we was a 20 year-old in Double-A, but has slowly lost both ceiling and probability.
Jose Tabata - 9.0 C - Few 19 year-olds would merit a C grade, but Tabata is a special case due to both his ability level and the fact that he'll start the season at Double-A. 9.0 is a pretty standard rating for someone like Tabata. His 2007 injury situation didn't factor in to the grade at all.
Brandon Laird - 8.0 D - I really don't know what to do with Laird. I don't want to give him an 'F' (something that I reserve for the Tim Battle's of the world), but I also think that 8.0 D dramatically overstates his prospect status. Thoughts?
Carmen Angelini - 7.0 D - We don't know a whole lot definitely about Angelini at this point, but I don't think that its unreasonable to keep him below an 8.0. He's the kind of young player who might get an upgrade in the future.
Steve White - 5.0 C - He's too old for me to really give him any more ceiling than this, but should he be a B? I'm airing on the side of pessimism.
Ross Ohlendorf - 6.5 B - Despite throwing in the high 90s, I don't really see any reason to believe that Ohlendorf will become an elite reliever. However, his velocity and advancement mean that he's a relatively good bet to be useful.
Humberto Sanchez - 8.0 I - Still recovering from surgery.
Francisco Cervelli - 7.5 D - Ok, so this one needs an explanation. Cervelli has a fairly wide range of where he could be at the major league level, from good backup catcher to star on-base threat. The 'D' grade doesn't represent chance for catastrophic failure, just a lot of variance due to a lot of questions about his offense.
Colin Curtis - 5.0 C - Might max out as a starting center fielder on an average team, but probably more of a 4th outfielder.
Kevin Russo - 1.0 A - Ain't going no where.
Thoughts? These are meant to be a good sample of archetypes to base other evaluations off of, so I'd like to discuss them before ranking pretty much every player in the system.
