Written by Greg Fertel
|
28 February 2008
Joe Girardi has
a ton of bullpen options in the Yankee's camp. The Yankees could probably make two bullpens - both better than the Giant's relief corps - from their group. Chad Jennings has an extensive rundown of the Yankee's options
here.
The Yankees may have a lot of decent options, but they'll need more than a decent bullpen to beat the Red Sox this year. Here is the depth chart that I would draw, assuming that Girardi carries 12 pitchers.
The Starters
1. Chien-Ming Wang - Pencil in him for 200-220 innings with an ERA of 3.70. Better yet, use pen.
2. Andy Pettitte - Despite all the health worries, he's missed just 1 start in 3 years, pitching at least 214 innings each time.
3. Mike Mussina - I have a feeling that you'll see a marked improvement from last year, thanks in part to Dave Eiland.
4. Ian Kennedy - Ahead of Phil Hughes in the depth chart because he won't need a break in the middle of the season to prevent his arm from falling off. The big factor to look for in regards to Kennedy is walk rate. If he starts the season off with efficiency, he'll have a big year. If he walks 4 per 9, he may need some Triple-A time.
5. Phil Hughes - A year ago, he was being discussed in the same sentence as Mark Prior. He's still capable of becoming an absolute ace, despite the strange season. If the Yankees are going to win the division, it will partly be on the back of Hughes.
The Swingman
6. Joba Chamberlain - Look for him to make 8-12 starts, and spend the rest of the time in the bullpen. He'll be most valuable to the Yankees out of the bullpen while the rest of the relievers are attempting to figure out who's going to be good and who needs to be cut. Barring injuries, expect the Yankees to sub Hughes out for him, keeping both of their innings down.
The Core
7. Mariano Rivera - I remember thinking at several points throughout the year, "Mariano's just getting unlucky out there. Weak ground balls are falling through for hits. His defense is failing him.
" and the peripheral statistics confirm what I was thinking. His 9.34 K/9 and 1.51 BB/9 were his best rates since the Yankees were winning championships, but he allowed more hits per 9 (8.58) than ever. That's the definition of bad luck. I'm drafting him early in my fantasy leagues.
8. Kyle Farnsworth - He wasn't even throwing all that hard last season. If anyone can whip Farnsworth into shape, its Girardi. A contract year will do that too.
9. LaTroy Hawkins - Hawkins won't be bad, but he won't be great either. There are few more reliably average relievers in baseball. As the Yankees are trying to figure the rest of their relievers out, he'll provide stability. Maybe he'll even be good enough to give the Yankees a Type B draft pick at the end of the year.
Open Auditions*
10. Chris Britton - What he did to Joe Torre, I don't know. He may not throw hard, but his strong control and big curveball has served him well in both the minors and majors. 9.10 K/9 and 2.10 BB/9 at Triple-A? 13 K/9 between A+ and Double-A? Give the guy a chance.
11. Dan Giese - He wasn't given a chance by a major league team until after he turned 30. The man has ridiculously good - 1.63 per 9 career - control, including a 1.23 mark at Triple-A this year. Kevin Towers and his adviser Paul DePodesta have proven over the past two years that the key to finding hidden gems in the flood of minor league journeyman relievers is to follow the guys who throw strikes. Cashman seems to understand this.
12. Scott Patterson - Trenton's Double-A hero was nothing short of perfect last year. 11 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 are no accident. And hell, he allowed only 1 HR in 77 innings. He could be a great reliever at the major league level right now.
13. Edwar Ramirez - Notice the control theme? That's why I put Edwar right on the fringe. People knock Edwar for having a weak fastball, but in reality that had nothing to do with his 8.14 ERA at the major leagues last year. Edwar's problem was command. When he was able to control his 91 mph fastball, his changeup took over and he struck out more batters than any pitcher I can remember, ever. When his command was bad, he'd walk three guys before giving up a home run. Edwar needs to stay ahead in the count. If his command improves in spring training, by all means he should start the season in the majors. For now, I'd say keep him at Triple-A. There's something to be said for striking out 13.29 while pitching the worst baseball of your life, which Edwar did in the majors last year. At Double-A, two thirds of his outs came via the strikeout.
14. Ross Ohlendorf - I'm hard on Ohlendorf, but I think its deserved. Sure, the guy throws 98, but his 98 was very hittable out of the bullpen last year. Eventually he should be pretty good, but he needs a decent breaking pitch.
15. Jon Albaladejo - He's another control freak, but has less of a strikeout tendency than the other guys. He's make a lot of lesser teams, but there's no room for him now. He only has 38 innings above Double-A anyway.
16. Brian Bruney - In shape or not entering camp, the odds of Bruney having a miraculous comeback and finally learning to throw strikes are slim. I advocated trading him while his value was high, but instead we got rid of the old reliable Scott Proctor.
17. Jeff Karstens - There's really no need for a swingman on this team, but the Yankees have always been higher on Karstens than anyone else.
18. Darrell Rasner - See Karstens. Rasner was needed last year, but he's obsolete now.
19. Kei Igawa - Lost in his major league disaster was the fact that Igawa posted one of the International League's best K/BB. That said, he also gave up close to 2 home runs per game. Igawa may show the rest of the world the difference between Ron Guidry and Dave Eiland this time around, but there isn't really a scenario where he makes the team as anything other than the token lefty. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the swing man role as an audition for a trade. He could do well in a big national league ballpark. Maybe the Marlins will decide that Kevin Gregg's 2.5 million is too expensive for them. Also, the Mets could be a good fit.
20. Chase Wright - I've always said that he'd make a good lefty reliever. I'd expect a conversion this year, but he'll start it at Triple-A.
21. Jose Veras - Overrated by a strong fastball.
22. Steve White - With this much depth, the Yankees will keep White (who should be an interesting bullpen option) in the rotation, waiting for a string of injuries.
23. Jeff Marquez - See White, but with talent.
24. Heath Phillips - See Chase Wright, but without talent.
25. Sean Henn - To think that he used to throw 98 mph. If the Yankees carry him, you'll hear me complaining every time he walks the bases loaded in a big spot. So, twice a week.
26. Alan Horne - The Yankees aren't even going to remotely consider him a bullpen possibility.
27. Steve Jackson - Finally started to put it all together by the end of the minor league season in 2007. Keep an eye on him.
28. Billy Traber - The golden rule of building a bullpen is that you ask yourself the question, "If he wasn't a lefty, would he be useful?
" The answer here should be obvious. Unlike the other control artists listed, Traber lets batters make far too much contact, and has struggled at the major league level.
* All of my analysis could be overridden by good spring training performances.
On a side note, you could check out my [brief] analysis of the Yankee's fantasy baseball situation at MVN's new online Magazine,
Roster.
